We’re one month into baseball season and the futures market is beginning to take shape. As you well know, it’s a marathon, so I can’t promise I’ll have new action to report every week.
However, I will check in as often as needed when significant market-moving events occur, or when I fire off a bet. This week, both are the case.
Last year, my most trusted MLB source delivered on a big early find with Corbin Burnes to win the NL Cy Young at +2000 in April. His insight will be utilized throughout the season, combined with reporting directly from oddsmakers setting the lines.
AL MVP futures odds and best bet: Ohtani emerges as favorite
I jumped on Shohei Ohtani earlier in the week and reallocated my portfolio, as illustrated below. It’s become clear to me that it is going to take a herculean season from someone to overcome Ohtani’s presence both at the plate and on the mound so I’m willing to invest now. Barring injury, I expect this number will only shorten between now and September.
I’m also selling Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after a pedestrian start. Thankfully his price held enough value to get an even money cashout from FanDuel.
I'm reallocating my AL MVP portfolio today….
🔴 SELL Vladdy +500 (2u at FD)
🟢 BUY Ohtani +350 (2.4u at MGM)I don't think Shohei will be plus money much longer if he keeps up this pace. In fact, Westgate is already pricing him as the odds on favorite. https://t.co/lf44AVtPtu pic.twitter.com/KYKVwyzcfn
— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) May 10, 2022
At the time of publication, you can still get Ohtani anywhere between +200 and +300 around most of the market, except at the Westgate, which has taken a more aggressive stance by making him the odds-on favorite at -110.
“It’s more so based on his performance (rather than liability),” said SuperBook Sports senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon. “It feels like he’s starting to heat up a little bit and the fact that he pitches and hits like it’s little league in our eyes makes him deserving of being odds-on at this point. We do not have much liability there, we’re a very small loser to him so far.”
My MLB source believes Byron Buxton is still in the mix, going as far as saying “if the Twins make the playoffs then Buxton is going to win the MVP.” This same source motivated me enough to bet Buxton in April.
30/1 still available at Westgate 👀
I'm officially in for 1 unit https://t.co/RDObTwqnH7 pic.twitter.com/39yG9qNwGx
— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) April 10, 2022
After an early injury scare, Buxton has returned with a splash and is ranked top 10 in wOBA, WAR and wRC+ among everyday starters, pushing his current price down to around +1500.
If you are coming into the market fresh this week, I recommend betting 1 unit on Ohtani and a 0.5-unit on Buxton at their current prices. My official positions are 2.4 units on Ohtani at +350 and 1 unit on Buxton at +3000.
Cy Young insights and analysis: Still very much up for grabs
Unlike last season, when Corbin Burnes stood out right away and prompted a bet at +2000 in April, my MLB source does not see a clear-cut pick for Cy Young in any league this season just yet, but he does have two players to keep an eye on.
“I would take Zac Gallen in the NL. If he’s healthy he has a really good shot. I don’t have a strong opinion in the AL. Justin Verlander is right there for sure.”
The Westgate has seen a steady stream of handle on this market since things opened up with a lot of familiar names drawing the majority of action.
“Our biggest liability in the NL is actually Jacob deGrom,” said Degnon. “Our second biggest liability is on Clayton Kershaw who we opened at 100/1 and are down to 8/1. In the AL we are sweating the young Mariners stud Logan Gilbert. We also have some smaller liabilities on Dylan Cease and of course Shohei Ohtani.”
Personally, this is not a market I’m interested in betting right now. Gallen’s number is hovering between +3000 and +4500, and unless we see an explosive start (10+ strikeouts, no-hitter) I don’t see it moving that significantly between now and midseason. I’m confident there will be a time to get aggressive with this market, but not now.
2022 World Series odds update: The usual suspects, plus a couple dark horse contenders
My source believes it’s “Houston in the AL and Dodgers in the NL” which I agree with; however, the odds don’t offer much value to bet on either at this stage. I’d rather wait until at least June or July before I consider betting two of the top four favorites on the board.
One dark horse my source is keeping an eye on is Cleveland, who “looks better than I thought they would because they piece together these hitters and are just a good organization that pieces it together”.
The Westgate also took some action on a longshot to win the NL Pennant, which caused a market shift.
“We took a large bet from a respected player on the Marlins at 50/1 to win the pennant so we are down to 30/1 there and dropped their World Series odds to 60/1,” added Degnon.
I would consider a sprinkle on the Guardians at 100/1 considering the weakness in their division, but I’m officially passing on World Series futures for now.
Macro trend to consider: Scoring is down because of the baseballs
My source is getting mixed feedback on this. But the results are clear — scoring is down across all of baseball and unders have been highly profitable. Entering play on May 11, the under is 250-205-1 (54.95%) and up 22.27 units for the season.
“Players say that the balls are just inconsistent. One game they’ll be like they were, and in another they’ll be feeling different. There is no consistency to it. They don’t know from game to game what it’s going to be. MLB doesn’t feel like that’s the case either, so I don’t know. I’m not one that buys into the conspiracy. That’s the nature of trying to get a perfect thing going.”
Hearing reports like these directly from the clubhouse forces me to rethink a lot of things about betting MLB totals and I will be factoring this information into my wagering decisions going forward. I will also check back in on this trend later in the season.
This Week’s Portfolio:
SELL Vlad Guerrero Jr to win AL MVP +500 (2u at Fanduel)
BUY Shohei Ohtani to win AL MVP +350 (2.4u at MGM)
Pickswise is the home of free sports picks, news and best bets. Check out our expert NFL Picks, NBA Picks, MLB Picks and NHL Picks pages for our latest game picks.
