Jared Smith’s “Back to the Futures” NFL odds analysis: Patriots now co-favorites to win Super Bowl

The loss dropped Buffalo from +800 to +1000 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel, their longest odds since Week 3, so I think it’s fair to say we are entering buy-low territory. It also sets up a good bounceback spot this Sunday in warm and sunny Tampa against a banged-up Bucs defense.

Another reason I’m bearish on Buffalo futures, their odds of winning the division have been dramatically reduced, which means they will likely have to win three road playoff games in order to get to the Super Bowl. In those instances, there is usually more value available by rolling over the money lines each week, which is referred to as a “mechanical parlay”. The Bills are a good candidate for that strategy come playoff time, as they should be a high-upside wild card team, which correlates to what we’ve seen from Buffalo’s body of work this season. At their best, they can beat anyone, but the floor is lower than other contenders (see Week 9 at Jags).

How to handicap the AFC North

All four teams are still alive to win the division with five games left. The Browns are the only team I would consider betting in this market, as they are favored against the Ravens, and could see their odds reduced significantly by the end of the day with a win and Bengals loss to the 49ers.

“Each team is very much alive to win the AFC North,” said WynnBET Trader Sawyer Johnson. “The Ravens have the best record but haven’t looked great as of late. The Bengals are inexperienced and have a bad offensive line. The Browns have the best roster but have unstable quarterback play. The Steelers have the best defense but the worst quarterback. It will be exciting to see how it all plays out.”

Last month, I opened a 1-unit position on the Bengals to win the AFC North, which I still think is alive. Instead of backing Browns futures this week, I think the better strategy is just to bet them straight up against Baltimore. If you read Monday’s “Early Birds” column, you should be holding a Browns -1 ticket, which is a strong position for me heading into the weekend.

There is a gap between the top nine teams in the Super Bowl market and the rest of the field. Those nine are broken into five from the NFC (Cardinals, Rams, Packers, Bucs, Cowboys) and four from the AFC (Bills, Patriots, Chiefs, Ravens). Besides that group, oddsmakers still have faith in both teams from the AFC South to potentially emerge as contenders.

Sawyer Johnson, WynnBET: “It’s the Titans. They were the hottest team in football a month ago and have some injuries. As soon as they are healthy, they can compete with anyone.”