Max Scherzer shook up the MLB futures market on Monday, signing a record-setting three-year, $130 million deal with the New York Mets. The move prompted BetMGM to significantly shorten the Mets’ World Series odds from +2000 to +1100 in just a 48-hour stretch, as rumors started to swirl around the Scherzer deal on Saturday night — culminating with the news being finalized on Monday. The Mets are currently priced as the third favorites to win the World Series, tied with the White Sox and still behind the Astros (+750) and Dodgers (+600).
“The Mets have held at +1100 since moving earlier Monday, but if we continue to get Mets action, the odds could shorten,” said BetMGM Trader Darren Darby.
Max Scherzer is set to make $43.3 million this year 💰
That's more than the entire projected opening day payrolls of the Pirates ($40.2 million) and Orioles ($37 million) 😅
(via @JeffPassan) pic.twitter.com/c8NZUqx1g1
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) November 29, 2021
The record deal will net the 37-year-old ace an absurd $43.3 million salary in 2022 — more than the estimated team payrolls of the Pirates ($40.2 million) and Orioles ($37.0 million). Adding Scherzer is the cherry on top of a busy weekend for the Mets, who also signed center fielder Starling Marte, infielder Eduardo Escobar, and outfielder Mark Canha. Those deals are worth a combined $124.5 million. The Mets’ opening-day payroll will be the highest in baseball at a projected $267 million.
There’s no denying the value Scherzer brings to the table, as he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last decade. But in terms of overall value, it’s tough to advise investing in the Mets now considering the substantial move and the fact that Scherzer will pitch only once every fifth day. The MLB season is a marathon and there will likely be many ups and downs for a Mets team that has made the playoffs only twice in the last decade.
The health of Jacob deGrom is also a serious question. The other ace on the Mets staff was shut down on July 7 because of elbow problems. They also play in the same division as the defending champion Braves and will likely have to get past Scherzer’s former club, the Dodgers, on the road to the NL Pennant. If you think Scherzer is the missing piece for the Mets to win it all, I’m betting you will find a better buy-low price at some point during the regular season.
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