We’ve officially reached that awkward spot on the sports calendar where it becomes increasingly difficult to allocate added time and resources towards handicapping MLB.
That being said, I always find it helpful to do one last sweep through the baseball futures market in the middle to end of August before the grind of football truly begins. That also coincides with around the time of year oddsmakers say the value has been mostly sucked out of the market.
“For the award markets the narrative for the most part has been written,” said Caesars Lead MLB Trader Eric Biggio. “Some markets are pretty much decided, some are still up for grabs.”
The odds at Caesars also indicate most of the awards markets are written in stone. AL MVP (Aaron Judge), NL Cy Young (Sandy Alcantara), and AL ROY (Julio Rodriguez) are all priced at -500 or longer, indicating over an 80% implied win probability.
That leaves three markets remaining where the favorite is -200 or shorter. Of those three, I have open positions in two, both of which we will examine closer in this column. We will also take a peek at the World Series market to see if anyone is flashing value before the stretch run begins.
NL Rookie of the Year: Too close to call
This is truly the only tossup remaining in the entire awards market. Not only do we have a pair of teammates, Michael Harris and Spencer Strider of the Braves, locked in a tight battle, but they both play vastly different positions. Those nuances make assigning value immensely more complex.
As discussed earlier with @MarkZinno I will have my finger on the trigger of this bet all night long
If Spencer keeps posting double-digit K games he will be the favorite in this market very soon pic.twitter.com/EF3JMQDZr2
— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) July 7, 2022
At the time of publication, Strider has a slight edge in WAR over Harris according to Fangraphs (3.2 to 2.8) but that doesn’t feel significant, especially considering the conundrum about them playing different positions. One major factor working against Strider is recent history, with position players sweeping this award in both leagues 4 of the last 5 years. The only pitcher to win during that span was reliever Devin Williams in 2020. A starting pitcher hasn’t won Rookie of the Year in either league since Michael Fulmer of the Tigers in 2006.
If you recall, I made my initial buy on Spencer Strider back on July 7th at +500. Currently I have 2 units invested at that price, and based on the coinflip nature of this market, it makes sense to look for a spot to hedge by betting Harris at some point over the final 6 weeks of the season. Please continue to check Twitter for the latest.
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AL Cy Young: Verlander has the edge
I feel much better about my 1 unit position on Justin Verlander at +400, which I first wrote about all the way back in late June. This market has played out exactly as my trusted MLB clubhouse insider predicted, with Verlander dominating headlines and holding his own with his numbers.
At the time of publication, JV ‘s odds were hovering around -200, which implies a 67% win probability. Dylan Cease is the second favorite around +250 while Shane McClanahan has plummeted out of contention. The Rays lefty was the favorite for much of the season with peak odds of +140 at PointsBet on July 26th, but is currently +900, which implies just a 10% win probability.
Biggio agrees JV has the inside track, so it doesn’t make sense to hedge this position. However, he doesn’t see any value on betting Verlander at his current price.
“It still looks somewhat close, so I wouldn’t call Verlander a lock yet,” added Biggio. “-200 seems like the right price.”
At the time of publication, Verlander (4.3) had a slight edge in WAR according to Fangraphs over Cease (3.5) and McLanahan (3.5).
World Series: It’s always been Houston and LA
Way back on June 7th, I planted my AL pennant into the ground with the Astros, as my source delivered insight which led me to believe they were better than the Yankees. The most recent slump by the Yanks has only further solidified our position, and it appears the road to the World Series on the AL side will run through Houston, which is significant. So is it now time to buy low on the Yankees?
“Never, LOL, the Pinstripe premium is real, as they’ll almost always be overvalued,” added Biggio. “Now, once Carpenter and Stanton find their way back into the lineup and Bader is a healthy option, I expect them to play better. I don’t think they’ll regain the amazing form they were in during May/ June, but they’ll certainly be better than they’ve been recently once guys like Stanton are back.”
So I’m standing firm with my position on Houston, and also holding a +1020 lotto ticket on an Astros/Dodgers World Series exacta, which appears more likely with each passing day as Los Angeles continues to dominate on the NL side.
Overall, I feel very good about the potential profitability of my MLB futures portfolio heading into October, especially if we lock in gains within the NL ROY market before the end of the regular season.
After that, we’re onto football!
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