Football season is over. There, I said it. The first week after the Super Bowl is always the toughest, but hopefully you enjoyed our coverage of the big game through the last week of the season. I know I certainly did!
Now that I’m back from the Super Bowl and have had a few days back east to try and wrap my head around everything, I’m ready to recap as best I can what was a wild NFL season.
What did I learn?
You had a good season if you just bet underdogs, especially if you compare it to the prior 5 years, as illustrated below.
If you bet $100 on every underdog ML in the NFL this season you finished up $2,170 📈
That's compared to being down $5,773 with the same strategy over the previous 5 seasons 📉
— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) February 16, 2022
Despite these extreme results, don’t expect oddsmakers to be in a big hurry to adjust their numbers for 2022.
“We all know football in general is a small sample size, so reacting to one trend over a 17-21 week period would leave you in all sorts of trouble as a bookmaker,” said FanDuel Director of Trading John Sheeran. “You wouldn’t price heads +200 in coin toss just because it went 25-50.”
“Sure, we may not have to be as aggressive on our money line splits,” added WynnBET Senior Trader Motoi Pearson. “But, if the belief is that if we think the number is right, we will then let the public bet it irrespective of the result.”
The truth about teasers
Let’s look a little bit closer at this data, through the lens of teasers. If we narrow the gaze to teams laying between 7 and 9 points, the favorites had more success, winning straight up 78% of the time. For context, overall favorites won straight up at a rate of 62.8% in 2021, so there’s a bit of a gap there. That is also in line with data from the prior 5 seasons, where teams favored between 7 and 9 points won straight up 79.52% of the time.
So how do I apply this to teasers? Well, teams that are favored between 7 and 9 points are ripe for 6-point teasers, which is one of my favorite bets to make.
My Behind the Counter article from a couple of months back with Circa oddsmaker Jeffrey Benson also tackled the topic of teasers and how they can offer value for bettors. I encourage everyone to give that section another read, as it reinforces why 6-point teasers will continue to be an important tool in my NFL betting arsenal next season.
The evolution of NFL key numbers
There are 2 numbers traditionally considered “key” in the NFL (3 and 7) but the data is showing one is trending significantly more key than the other. A whopping 15.44% of games landed on 3 this season, including 6 out of the final 7 from the Divisional Round through the Super Bowl.
If you zoom out, just 13.88% of games landed on 3 from 2011 through 2020, so the rate of teams winning by a field goal went up by more than 1% this season. Here are some other observations about certain key numbers based on results from the past decade:
Fewer games landed on 7 and 14
2011-2020: 9.28% of games landed on 7; 5.43% landed on 14
2021: 6.67% of games landed on 7, 3.16% landed on 14
More games landed on 2
2011-2020: 4.12% of games landed on 2
2021: 5.88% of games landed on 2
Similar splits for 3 and 10
2011-2020: 13.88% of games landed on 3, 5.28% landed on 10
2021: 13.97% of games landed on 3, 5.88% landed on 10
Finally, more games landed on 6 (20) than 7 (19) this season. That goes against data from 2011-2020, where 65 fewer games landed on 6 than 7, which is over a 2.5% difference.
“Certainly over recent times there has been a decrease/increase in the value of certain numbers, so we continue to account for that in our modeling and pricing,” added Sheeran.
The evolution of the 2-point conversion and coaching decisions being based more on analytics can likely explain some of these key number fluctuations.
“I think results such as that or those type of specifics may be factored in more when handicapping an NFL game going forward,” added Pearson.
The general consensus amongst oddsmakers is that NFL key numbers will continue to be reexamined as a larger sample size presents itself.
Grading my individual results
Overall, it was a positive year for me if you combine everything. I was up 3.86 units in futures (pictured below) and 16.41 units overall with individual picks (pictured above). The individual gains were thanks in large part to my explosive Week 18 betting contract incentive props, most notably Tyler Lockett 2+ touchdowns at +1600. That one bet is responsible for 16 units of my overall 22.07 unit net gain in props this season.
Despite that, I won only 41.78% of my prop bets in 2021, and I bet on way too many of them. In fact, I bet on more total props (225) than all other types of bets combined (217) this season. One major adjustment for me next season is to bet fewer props and get that ratio down to under 50%, meaning if I make 100 non-prop bets in 2022, I should limit my prop bets to 50 or less.
So I got a little lucky with one good week of props, but I also got a little unlucky with my futures portfolio. The Bengals erasing a 21-3 deficit against the Chiefs and Joe Burrow somehow beating out Dak Prescott for Comeback Player of the Year negatively impacted my bottom line in a big way. If not for those unlikely events occurring, my NFL futures portfolio would have been up over 10 units. Thanks Cincinnati.
Best bets went 54-49-2 and finished down 3.75 units for the season, which is obviously less than ideal. I definitely need to improve how I structure that column next season. My initial thought is decreasing the volume of plays to 1-2 per week. My second thought is to limit the type of plays I give out.
For example, best bet sides went 32-25-1 (56.03%), which would be a profitable season. However, best bet totals went 3-4, parlays went 0-2 and props 0-1, creating significant drag on my bankroll. I will be much more cautious classifying totals, parlays and props as “best bets” going forward.
Best bet teasers went 18-16-1, which is a net negative considering the juice you’re paying to manipulate the lines, but as discussed above, I still believe teasers can be an effective tool. The one tweak I would make there is the volume. I bet 35 teasers in 21 weeks if you count the regular season through the Conference Championships. That’s an average of 1.67 teasers per week. That ratio likely needs to be cut down to 1.1 or 1.2 to account for the juice associated with betting teasers.
Overall, I would consider my first NFL season with Pickswise a success. I didn’t get rich, but I also didn’t make any of you poor. I enjoyed connecting with a new audience, and I learned a lot more about my strengths and weaknesses capping the league.
But for now, it’s time to officially put the 2021 NFL season to bed and move forward. See you all in the fall!
Pickswise is the home of NFL Picks. Be sure to check out all of our post-Super Bowl offseason coverage as we gear up for the 2022 campaign.
