Jared Smith's EPL Matchweek 4: Best bets and analysis

Season Record: 3-1, +2.00u
Last week: 0-1, -1.00u

After a one-week hiatus for World Cup qualifying, the EPL returns for matchweek four and boy are things different. Cristiano Ronaldo announced his triumphant return to Manchester United by signing a blockbuster two-year contract with a one-year option on August 31. The move immediately shook up the futures market, as BetMGM moved United from +800 to +500 to win the EPL title.

The second Ronaldo era at Old Trafford will begin on Saturday against Newcastle but I don’t see any value in backing the Red Devils as a heavy favorite since they are likely still figuring out the best lineup with CR7 back in play. Grab your popcorn for this one but it’s not worthy of a bet in my eyes.

As for the matches that did make our card this week…

Tottenham at Crystal Palace: Spurs due for some regression

Crystal Palace +0.5 -115

*Line available on DraftKings at time of publication

Palace really showed me something in their last match against West Ham, much to the detriment of our best bet. Conor Gallagher has been a revelation since joining on loan from the Chelsea U23 squad, scoring both goals in the 2-2 draw against the Hammers. This bet is also a slight fade of Spurs, who have not conceded yet this season despite allowing 4.21 xGA. Another factor to keep in mind is that Tottenham’s best player, Harry Kane, just played the full 90 minutes in a grueling World Cup qualifier on Tuesday against feisty Poland. I would not be surprised if the Eagles grabbed all three points at home.

Norwich at Arsenal: Buying low on the Gunners

Same Game Parlay -106
Arsenal ML
Arsenal most corners

*Line available on FanDuel at time of publication

Call me crazy, but I’m willing to invest in the Gunners, who got blasted in their first 3 matches. Arsenal are dead last in the EPL standings and have been outscored 9-0 thus far, but they have a chance to get right against Norwich, who also carry a minus-9 goal differential with 3 straight setbacks in their return to England’s top flight. The Canaries have also conceded a league-high average of 4.67 first-half corners per match, and I expect the pitch to be tilted towards Arsenal for the duration. Instead of laying a big number on the money line, we will go back to our SGP strategy and try to find some value in the corners market to make this price more palatable.

West Ham at Southampton: Shootout in the south

Same Game Parlay -114
Over 2.5 /Both teams to score

*Line available on FanDuel at time of publication

The Hammers’ attack should punish a leaky Southampton defense that has allowed the 4th-highest xGA through 3 matches. West Ham is also average defensively and allowed 2 goals in their only road match this season. At the time of publication, you’re laying slightly less than 40 cents just to bet the over here, which is a fine standalone play, I just like to reduce the juice whenever possible. Since I see this one being a shootout on both ends, I’m willing to add BTTS to our SGP.

Wolverhampton Wanderers at Watford: Wolves will finally break the seal

Both teams to score +100

*Line available on DraftKings at time of publication

I’m expecting some positive regression for Wolves, who have been the unluckiest side thus far in league play, failing to score despite creating 4.63 xG. I’m not feeling quite brave enough to back them fully on the road against recently promoted Watford, whose lone victory this season came in impressive fashion at home over Aston Villa. However since this match does present a rare opportunity for both sides to grab the full three points, I see the tempo being fast and aggressive.

Liverpool at Leeds: Sunday shootout at Elland Road

Same Game Parlay -130
Over 2.5 /Both teams to score

*Line available on DraftKings at time of publication

Leeds have allowed the 3rd-most goals in league play (8) and face a Liverpool attack that has scored in 13 straight EPL matches, so I feel very confident the Reds will find at least 1 but likely 2 or more goals on the road. The true handicap in this match is whether or not Leeds will be able to find the back of the net. Well, the Whites have been fantastic at home, unbeaten in their last 7 in league play. Finally, it’s a small sample size, but in their one game on the road this season Liverpool was fortunate not to concede against lowly Norwich, allowing 1.33 xG. This one should be a fun appetizer before American football takes center stage on Sunday afternoon.

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