Japan and Croatia are no strangers to World Cup drama in Qatar after having to hold their nerve to advance to the elimination stage of the tournament. Croatia was forced to dig deep to hold off Belgium in its final group game, a tie seeing the Croats finish 2nd in Group E to set up a round-of-16 matchup against Japan.
Pure determination and a little help from VAR has got Japan to this point with the Blue Samurai becoming only the third team in World Cup history to be trailing at halftime and come back to win 2 games in the same tournament. Japan came from behind to upset both Germany and Spain, the latter in controversial circumstances, and can’t be ruled out from springing another surprise in its attempt to reach a first World Cup quarterfinal.
Having gone all the way to the final 4 years ago, Croatia knows what it takes to win a knockout game, but Japan’s never-say-die attitude makes it tough to beat. We’ve come up with a Same Game Parlay which returns at massive +1862 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Tie in regulation time (+220)
Both teams to score (+100)
Ivan Perisic anytime assist (+320)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1862
Let’s check out the reasoning behind each of our selections:
Tie in regulation time (+220)
Croatia took a marathon route to get to the World Cup final in 2018 with all 3 of its knockout games going to extra-time, and there’s reason to believe that pattern will continue in Qatar. The 2022 team’s major flaw is the lack of cutting edge, which was on show in goalless ties against Morocco and Belgium in the group stage. While Croatia was able to cut loose in a 4-1 win over Canada, that scoreline said more about the Canadians’ lack of defensive discipline than it did for Croatia’s attacking prowess.
Croatia also gave a lot to secure a tie against Belgium and its aging squad may lack the energy to keep up late on against a Japan team that seemingly gets stronger as games go on, helped in part by coach Hajime Moriyasu’s smart substitutions. Croatia should get chances against Japan — Spain and Germany won both the possession and shots-on-goal battles comfortably when losing to Japan in the group stage — but it’s debatable whether the European team will take enough of those opportunities to secure a place in the quarterfinals without the need for extra-time.
Don’t miss our full Japan vs Croatia predictions
Both teams to score (+100)
Japan has gone 8 World Cup games without recording a shutout and while Croatia may not have the firepower of some other teams in the tournament, it would be a surprise if the European team can’t find the back of the net at least once. Japan goalkeeper Shuichi Gonda hasn’t looked 100% reliable and Croatia’s top-quality operators in midfield — Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic — should force the issue in attack for the 2018 silver medalists.
Both teams have scored in 7 of Japan’s last 10 World Cup games and the Blue Samurai’s incisive counter-attacks make them a threat in a game in which they may not see much of the ball. Japan has also got goals from its substitutes and is going up against a Croatia team that was fortunate not to allow a goal in its tie with Belgium last time out.
Ivan Perisic anytime assist (+320)
Ivan Perisic has relished playing further forward for Croatia than he does for his club team Tottenham and he should cause major problems down Japan’s right wing. Germany got down that side of the field several times against Japan, while Spain’s goal against the Blue Samurai came from a right-wing cross.
Perisic already has 2 assists at the World Cup and arrived in Qatar having been the provider for 7 Tottenham goals in all competitions this season. Modric is the favorite to provide an assist for Croatia but with the middle of the field likely to be congested, this matchup should allow wide man Perisic to make a telling impact.
Make sure you check out the rest of our World Cup predictions for the upcoming games
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