Ricky Dimon
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On paper, the 2024 US Open men’s singles final is a bit of a lopsided matchup. The American crowd will do its best to make sure that isn’t how it plays out on the court. Taylor Fritz will have the fans behind him when he takes the court as the first American man since 2009 (Andy Roddick at Wimbledon) to play in a Grand Slam title match. He can also become the first American man since 2003 (Roddick at the US Open) to lift a major trophy. Standing in Fritz’s way is world #1 Jannik Sinner. Let’s break down our US Open men’s final best bets with our Sinner vs Fritz predictions.
Jannik Sinner vs Taylor Fritz Over 38.5 games (-118)
Sinner is a significant favorite, but I like Fritz’s chances of keeping it close. In terms of the competition level, nobody has been more impressive than Fritz this fortnight. The 26-year-old has taken out 3 major finalists in Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud. In the semis, he defeated compatriot Frances Tiafoe, who also reached the final 4 at the U.S. Open in 2022 and the quarterfinals in 2023. It’s also worth noting that Sinner is a respectable 1-1 in the head-to-head series with Sinner. The current world No. 12 rolled 6-4, 6-3 in Indian Wells 3 years ago; Sinner won a hard-fought 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 contest at the same tournament last spring.
The Italian has also played well so far in New York, but he isn’t invincible. He trailed Mackenzie McDonald by a set and a break in the first round, also dropped a set in the quarterfinals to Daniil Medvedev, played a pair of tiebreakers in the fourth round against Tommy Paul and his first 2 sets in the semis against Jack Draper were 7-5, 7-6(3). Count on the Sinner being tested again.
Taylor Fritz to hit more aces than Jannik Sinner (-140)
As good as Fritz’s forehand and backhand are, the serve – if it’s working – is what is going to keep him competitive on Sunday. He has fired 75 aces through 6 rounds, third most in the tournament behind Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev. Fritz can be expected to hit plenty in the final. He is not going to have the advantage over Sinner from the baseline, so he has to win free points on serve. Risks must be taken with that shot, which will naturally lead to more aces – and to more double-faults, as well. Meanwhile, Sinner comes in with 54 aces — seventh most in the event. Finally, in 2 head-to-head meetings, the ace count stands at 10 to 5 in the American’s favor.
Jannik Sinner vs Taylor Fritz Over 0.5 tiebreakers (-175)
As the ace numbers indicate, Sinner and Fritz are 2 of the biggest servers in tennis. The more they hold serve, the more chances there are for tiebreakers to decide sets. At least 1 should be necessary on Sunday. Fritz played 2 tiebreakers against Zverev in the quarterfinals and Zverev has a big-serving, big-hitting game style similar to thay of Sinner. The top seed has played 3 ‘breakers in his last 3 matches and another set against Draper went to 5-5 before Sinner won it 7-5.
