Ricky Dimon
We have arrived at championship weekend in Melbourne, where the Australian Open men’s singles title match will take center stage on Sunday. Jannik Sinner is trying to successfully defend his 2024 title, while Alexander Zverev is hoping to end his drought by lifting a Grand Slam winner’s trophy for the first time in his career.
I went 3-0 on the women’s final, in which Madison Keys beat Aryna Sabalenka, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Here are my best bets for the men’s singles final.
Jannik Sinner -4.5 games over Alexander Zverev (-110)
About the only thing that Zverev has going for him – in addition to the obvious fact that he is in another Grand Slam final – is that he leads the head-to-head series 4-2. However, there is no reason to put any stock in that record; all of his victories came before Sinner’s rise to the top of tennis began in the fall of 2023. The 23-year-old won their most recent meeting (their only one since Sinner became the real Sinner) at last summer‘s Cincinnati Masters, albeit a very close one. For several reasons, it‘s hard to see this one being as competitive. First, the world #1 is in unbelievable form. He is 79-6 in his last 85 matches dating back to the start last season. Second, this is a Grand Slam final – a scenario in which Zverev is 0-2 lifetime with a blown 2-set lead at the 2020 U.S. Open (to Dominic Thiem) and a blown 2 sets to 1 lead at the 2024 French Open (to Carlos Alcaraz). Sinner is 2-0 slam finals and has won each of the last 2 on hard courts.
Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev Under 40.5 games (-130)
The analysis is largely the same for this play, as it correlates nicely with Sinner -4.5 games. Sinner has won 4 of his 6 matches at the Australian Open in straight sets. Even his 4-setters against Tristan Schoolkate and Holger Rune went just 36 games and 35 games, respectively. Ben Shelton played about as well as he could play in the semifinals and still pushed Sinner to only 29 games. It is true that Zverev is Sinner’s sternest test of the event in terms of competition level, but it should still be a mostly routine day at the defending champ. A straight-set result obviously stays under the 40.5 number and even a 4-setter has a good shot at staying under. Zverev would probably be overachieving if he makes this a 4-setter that averages 10 games per set. It would be a surprise if he is any more competitive than that.
Alexander Zverev -0.5 double-faults vs. Jannik Sinner (-185)
I was on this same line with Zverev in the quarterfinals against Tommy Paul (that ended up being 5 double-faults to 2 in Zverev’s favor) and in the semis against Novak Djokovic (1-0 for Zverev before Djokovic retired from the match following the first set). I’m going right back to the well for the championship match. Both men have doubled-faulted 14 so far during this tournament. Zverev, however, has doubled 30 times to the Italian’s 24 in their 6 head-to-head meetings. This new and improved Sinner now puts a ton of pressure on opponent’s serve because his baseline game is so dominant, which forces them take more risk and go for more on both first and second serve. That naturally leads to more DFs. Zverev has faced Sinner once since the current world No. 1’s rise to the top began (Cincinnati in 2024) and Zverev finished with 5 double-faults to Sinner’s 1. The underdog absolutely has to avoid long rallies on Sunday, but his style of play is such that he can’t really do it with groundstrokes. He has to do it with his serve. Again, more risk results in more mistakes. Combine that with the pressure of once again trying to win his first Grand Slam and all signs point to relatively high double-fault total for Zverev.
