The first week of the NFL playoffs provided some great action — but not every team had to put their seasons on the line last week. The Kansas City Chiefs were able to sit back and relax while the other 6 AFC qualifiers fought it out for places on this week’s slate having earned the #1 seed in the conference with their 14-3 record. They may not have quite as much of an advantage as most #1 seeds, though, as if they win their game against the Jaguars and the Bills beat the Bengals, then next week’s AFC Championship Game would be played in Atlanta, rather than at Arrowhead Stadium.
There’s the small matter of getting there first, though, and the Jaguars won’t want to waste the chance they earned with last week’s incredible comeback from 27-0 behind to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30. The teams met in the regular season, with the Chiefs winning 27-17 at this venue, but the Jaguars have been gaining momentum ever since. Our expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this crucial Jaguars vs Chiefs matchup.
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NFL Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs expert predictions
The Jaguars were not expected to still be playing at this point when they began the season with a 2-6 record. But the team’s improvement in their first year under head coach Doug Pederson continues and they have been one of this year’s success stories whatever happens on Saturday. The Jags head to Arrowhead on a 6-game winning streak, having won their last 5 regular-season games to finish at 9-8, before coming back from a near-impossible position against the Jaguars.
It took a good team to beat the Chiefs in the regular season as they finished 14-3 with 2 of the losses coming to their biggest conference rivals the Bills and Bengals. There was also an early 20-17 loss to the Colts that can probably safely be written off as an outlier. The loss to the Bengals was the only setback in the final 11 games of the season for the Chiefs, and giving head coach Andy Reid a week off to think up more inventive red-zone plays could be bad news for Jacksonville.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point spread: Jaguars +8.5, Chiefs -8.5
Total points over/under: 53 points
Money line odds: Jaguars +350, Chiefs -435
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Jaguars and Chiefs.
Jaguars vs Chiefs point spread pick: Chiefs -8.5 (-115)
When these teams met in Kansas City in Week 10, the Chiefs were favored by 9.5 points and covered in an easy 27-17 victory. Since that meeting, the Jaguars have won 7 of their next 8 games, including a miraculous come-from-behind 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers during last week’s wild-card round. They also went 6-2 against the spread during that run. The Chiefs also went on to win 7 of their next 8 games, but they went 3-5 against the spread, which further enhanced the trend of Kansas City struggling to cover big spreads, especially at home.
The Chiefs finished 7-10 against the spread and were just 3-5 ATS at home this season. It drove bettors mad early on in the season, but taking the opposition to cover against them at home soon became the trend to follow. However, as the season progressed, the Chiefs offense hit another gear and in matchups against the struggling defenses of the Rams, Seahawks and Raiders, not only did they cover, but they covered spreads ranging from 8.5-15.5 points. You never want to say a team coasted through the regular season, but when you see them dispatching of soft teams with such ease, you have to wonder.
The Jaguars have been a great story all year and are coming off a fantastic 6-game win streak, but they have narrowly escaped their last two opponents and are still just 4-5 ATS on the road this year. Your heart might want you to take them to cover, but Andy Reid is smart enough to know that running the ball with a lead in the second half is the way to seal a victory and his defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is not going to take his foot off the gas either. The Chiefs have the offensive firepower to take command of this game and this is where playoff experience trumps all.
Be sure to check out our full Jaguars vs Chiefs predictions
Jaguars vs Chiefs over/under totals pick: Over 52.5 (-115)
When it comes to betting the over/under, the Chiefs have been an unexpected problem for bettors. The over is just 3-7 when the game total is over 50 points and is just 2-6 in games at Arrowhead Stadium. Vegas obviously had some lofty expectations for Kansas City, but they just weren’t blowing out teams at home and thus the scores were staying down. However, over their last 5 games, the Chiefs have taken their offense to another level and have averaged 29.2 points while the over has hit 3 times.
The Jaguars’ track record for the over/under has been much clearer as the over was 9-9 over the course of the full season, but 6-3 during road games and is 5-3 over their last 8 games. In fact, the Jaguars have averaged 29.5 points per game over their last 6. Last week’s comeback against the Chargers was one for the history books and while we may believe the Chiefs will win in relatively strong fashion, Doug Pederson has his offense playing with confidence.
While their first meeting back in Week 10 finished 27-17 and stayed under the game total, both teams have ramped up their offenses to a degree that both should be able to put points on the board. The total is running a little high after opening at 51.5, so be careful if it continues to trend upwards. You will also want to check the weather as there may be snow in the forecast for the late afternoon. For now, let’s support these offenses.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs expert predictions
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