Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars Under 8 Wins -130
Worst Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars To Win Super Bowl (+3300)
After the 2017 season in which the Jacksonville Jaguars led the Patriots for the majority of the AFC Championship Game, many believed the Jaguars had the makings of the next team to possibly take the torch from the Patriots and become the new dynasty of the AFC. They entered the 2018 season as one of the favorites to win the AFC Championship and many picked them to represent the conference in the Super Bowl, but that wound up being very far from what actually happened. The Jaguars finished the season with a 5-11 record and ended up a distant last place in the AFC South.
The offense was one of the worst in the NFL last season as they ranked 31st in points per game with 15.31, 20th in rushing yards per game with 107.69, and 27th in passing yards per game with 194.38. They did address the quarterback position in the offseason, a position that has been a weakness for a while, by signing Nick Foles. Foles obviously was a Super Bowl hero two years ago, and has shown a lot of flashes filling in for Carson Wentz.
This will be a make or break season in the running game as well. After a strong rookie season, Leonard Fournette seemed uninterested at times last year, suffered through multiple injuries, and got suspended for fighting on the field during the Bills game. If he can revert to his rookie play, then the running game of the Jaguars will be much improved but if he doesn’t he might not be long for Jacksonville.
The defense took a step back last year after being the best unit in football in 2017. Jacksonville ranked 4th in the NFL in points allowed per game with 19.75, 20th in rushing yards allowed per game with 116.88 and 2nd in passing yards allowed per game with 194.56.
The Jaguars addressed the run defense by adding one of the best outside linebackers/pass rushers in the NFL draft by taking Josh Allen out of Kentucky with the 7th overall pick. With the defense likely not having to play as many downs this season because of an improved offense with a capable quarterback, the defense could get back to their 2017 form.
Jaguars Win Total: O/U 8 Wins
The oddsmakers have set the win total for the Jaguars at 8. While this is understandable after their disastrous 2018 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars should still be a better team. They improved what was arguably their biggest weakness at quarterback by replacing Blake Bortles with Foles. They should have a strong running game assuming Fournette can return to his 2017 form, and they have an above average offensive line as well. Even though their defense wasn’t quite as good as it was in 2018, they were still very solid last year, and adding Allen should help.
They do play in one of the tougher divisions in the NFL, however, and Houston and Indianapolis are likely to have better seasons this year. The biggest concern for the Jaguars is they have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. They will be going up against the AFC West and NFC South this season which are home to some of the best teams in the NFL. As much as I would like to say take the over 8 wins this season especially with what should be an improved offense to go with an already good defense, I just can’t recommend taking the over. In fact the reverse, the under 8 wins is the best bet for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season.
Odds To Make Playoffs: Yes +230 No -290
To make the playoffs last season in the AFC as a wild card team took 10 wins and the Jaguars fell short by 5 games last year. They play in what is arguably one of the more competitive divisions in the AFC in the AFC South, and they will likely finish behind the Colts and the Texans.
That means they would be fighting for the 2nd wild card spot in the conference and there are at least two teams in the other AFC divisions that I think will be better than the Jaguars this season. I look for the Jaguars to miss the playoffs and I think they finish in the bottom half of the AFC as well, which makes the ‘No’ the better of the two bets but given the price I would only put a small amount on the play.
Odds To Win The AFC South: +375
The Colts are the cream of the crop in the division as they have the best overall team from top to bottom and the Texans are a better team than the Jaguars as well. Unless there are injuries that happen to both the Colts and the Texans that significantly alters their teams, I don’t see the Jaguars finishing higher than 3rd in the division.
The Jaguars could potentially challenge for 2nd place in the division because of improved quarterback play as well as having one of the better defenses in the AFC, but to win the division seems unlikely. The odds of +375 for the Jaguars to win the division seems like a cheap price, but I would rather take the Colts or Texans when it comes to that bet, so I would stay away from making a bet like this as it’s likely throwing money away.
Odds To Win AFC Championship: 16/1
As much as the Jacksonville Jaguars will be improved this season especially on offense, they are not even close to being one of the top teams in the AFC in 2019. The defense is one of the better ones in the conference, but overall there are at least five-six teams that are better teams than the Jaguars in the conference. At 16/1 the Jacksonville Jaguars are a cheap option if you want to chase a longshot but I still wouldn’t waste money on placing a bet on them to win the AFC and making it to the Super Bowl this season.
Odds To Win The Super Bowl: 33/1
The Jaguars won’t make the Super Bowl this season let alone win the Super Bowl as they will likely be a mediocre team, and Vegas thinks they will be as well given the win total of 8. There are too many teams in the AFC that are better than the Jaguars including in the AFC South to prevent them from making and winning the Super Bowl. Don’t waste your money and throw it away by placing a bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the Super Bowl, no matter how much they appear to be improved on paper.
