It’s not that long ago that Colts vs Patriots was one of the most hotly anticipated games in the AFC schedule if not even the entire league. However, the days of showdowns between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are no more. Sam Ehlinger vs Mac Jones doesn’t stir up quite the same emotions, but someone will have to win when the teams meet in New England on Sunday. Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for the game.
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NFL Week 9 Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots prediction
The Colts have been a big disappointment this season after entering Week 1 expected to mount a strong playoff challenge. Veteran QB Matt Ryan did not prove the hoped-for success after arriving from Atlanta to replace Carson Wentz, and young QB Sam Ehlinger made his first start in the Colts’ 17-16 home loss to the Commanders. That dropped Indy to a mediocre 3-4-1 record and their 20-17 win over the Chiefs seems a long time ago.
The Patriots have been inconsistent, as their 4-4 record might suggest, and recent big wins over the Lions and Browns, and last week’s divisional success over the Jets, came either side of a horrible 33-14 loss to the Bears. Mac Jones is back at QB now after rookie Bailey Zappe created something of an unexpected quarterback controversy and our expert believes the clash with the Colts is set to be a real grind with both teams looking to run the ball as much as possible.
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Colts +5.5, Patriots -4.5
Total points over/under: 40.5 points
Money line odds: Colts +200, Patriots -220
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Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Colts and Patriots.
Colts vs Patriots point spread pick: Colts +5.5 (-107)
Colts head coach Frank Reich has just fired his offensive coordinator and the idea of Bill Belichick scheming against a young quarterback has the entire city of Indianapolis in a state of nausea. Things seem pretty straightforward when looking at this game, right? Maybe not. Former OC Marcus Brady became the fall guy when Matt Ryan proved to be washed up, there is speculation that Jonathan Taylor is hiding an injury, and the team has lost its last 2 games and is sitting with a sub .500 record. Sam Ehlinger looked overmatched in his NFL debut last week, and the team’s biggest response, personnel-wise, was to ship Nyheim Hines off to Buffalo in exchange for Zack Moss and a 6th-round pick. Meanwhile, the Patriots bounced back from an embarrassing loss to the Bears by manhandling the Jets, their defense has stifled the offenses of the Browns and Lions and while their offense could hardly be called electric, they do seem to stay in control quite a bit because of the strength of their ground game.
With all of this, you have to ask yourself, “Why is the spread less than a touchdown if all of this is working against the Colts and in favor of the Patriots?” You would think the Patriots could handle this team. But the key for the Colts is their rushing attack. If Jonathan Taylor is ineffective, Deon Jackson should see more touches. It’s going to be about ball control and time of possession. Reich is going to push the run hard and, in a game dominated by the ground attacks, I want to be on the side getting the points.
Be sure to check out our full Colts vs Patriots predictions
Colts vs Patriots Over/Under totals pick: Under 40.5 (-107)
If the Colts are going to have any chance at beating the Patriots, they are going to have to run the ball effectively. They need to win the battle at the line of scrimmage and own more than a 50% share of the time of possession. Jonathan Taylor needs to run hard, and if he is deemed ineffective, Frank Reich needs to make Deon Jackson a bigger part of this offense. Defensively, they do a great job at stuffing the run, especially with LB Shaquille Leonard back on the field, and their secondary will need to capitalize on any mistakes Mac Jones makes throwing the football.
The Patriots are going to run the ball hard as usual but could have some issues, given the strength of the Colts’ front seven. That could mean more work for Jones, who has 7 interceptions through 5 games this season. New England actually has 16 giveaways this season, very uncharacteristic of a Bill Belichick team, so expect the Colts defense to be extra aggressive. The low game total seems like a tough pill to swallow if you want to take the under, but when both teams are likely to run the ball as much as we expect, we might just have to lean that way. The under is 4-4 in Patriots games this season but is 7-1 in games played by the Colts. And when you hold both of these offenses up together, the last thing you’re thinking is “scoring bonanza”.
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Be sure to also check some of our other NFL Predictions articles for Week 9 below.
- Los Angeles Chargers vs Atlanta Falcons predictions
- Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets predictions
- Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
- Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions
- Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions predictions
- Miami Dolphins vs Chicago Bears predictions
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots expert predictions
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and NFL Best Bets from the rest of the Week 9 action.
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