Best Bet: Colts AFC Champions (+700)
Worst Bet: Colts Missing The Playoffs (+195)
The Indianapolis Colts are entering this season with high expectations as many believe they have the opportunity to dethrone the Patriots in the AFC and make the Super Bowl. These expectations may be a bit high but they definitely have the talent to do so, although it is a little disappointing for the Colts not to fully capitalize on their cap space, and the lack of spending could cost them this season.
The Colts had one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL last year with Andrew Luck finally returning to start at the quarterback position. They ranked 8th in points per game with 25.94, 16th in rushing yards per game with 111.39 and 7th in passing yards per game with 269.94. The rushing attack wasn’t horrible and improved late in the year, but it definitely could have been addressed further and they had the cap space to go after LeVeon Bell but didn’t even make a legitimate run to get him. Instead they’ll start an average NFL running back in Marlon Mack again this season, and Mack has also been injury prone in the past.
The offensive line of the Colts is elite, which will help them in both the run and passing game, but they may regret not going after Bell or another big time play maker like Odell Beckham Jr or Antonio Brown to make the passing attack the best in the NFL.
One of the biggest surprises in the NFL last season was the play of the defense for the Colts and they’ll look to have one of the best young defenses in the NFL again this season. The Colts ranked 8th in the NFL in points allowed per game with 21.22, 9th in rushing yards allowed per game with 106.17, and 18th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game with 237.50. They addressed the defense greatly in the draft by adding cornerback Rock Ya-Sin and linebacker Ben Banogu with their first two picks. These two should help the average pass-defense which could catapult the Colts into being a top ten defense in all three key defensive categories this season.
Colts Win Total: O/U 9.5 Wins
The Colts finished last season with 10 wins, so the over 9.5 looks enticing to say the least. The Colts didn’t do a lot to improve their offense even though they were more than capable of doing so with the cap space they have, but their defense has a chance to be even better than what it was last season.
The Colts have a tough schedule this season. The Jaguars and Texans will be difficult games in the division as well as facing the AFC West’s Chargers and Chiefs. I still like their chances of exceeding the 9.5 win total though, as they are clearly loaded to make a run at representing the AFC this season in the Super Bowl. It’s not a bad price at -135 and if the Colts live up to the lofty expectations that everyone seems to be placing on them this season they shoulder be around the 11-12 win mark this year making the over 9.5 be a solid bet to make.
Colts To Make The Playoffs: Yes -250 No +195
The Colts are one of the most talented teams in the AFC this season both offensively as well as defensively which makes the price of Indianapolis of making the playoffs a hefty -250. Let’s face it though, unless Luck suffers a catastrophic injury that forces backup Jacoby Brissett into the starting lineup it’s hard to see the Colts missing the playoffs.
They do play in a tough division in the AFC South but there’s no reason to believe they aren’t talented enough to be the favorites to win the division. Even if for some reason they take a step back this season and don’t win the division they still should make the playoffs as a wild card team. At -250 the price is too expensive for me and I can’t force myself into making the bet even though I look at the Colts as almost locks. They’ll likely make the postseason, but -250 is a bit too steep to lay given Luck’s recent injury history.
Colts To Win the AFC South: Even
The Colts are the favorites to win the AFC South and after a dominating performance against what is likely their biggest challenge this season, the Houston Texans, in the playoffs on the road it’s easy to see why.
Many believe the Colts will run away with the division this season and it’s hard to argue with that, but the Colts did split the season series with the Texans and the Jaguars last year, who will be their two challenges to overcome in the division again this season. The Colts are better than the Jags and are at worse a tossup with the Texans. At even money it’s easy to like the Colts in the AFC South this season if you believe they are the better team between them and the Texans.
Colts To Win The AFC Championship: 7/1
This is the best bet on the Colts to make this season. With the hype surrounding the Browns they’re listed as the 3rd likeliest option to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs have the 2nd best odds and the Patriots are once again the favorites to win the AFC. Cleveland has the talent to live up to the hype, but they could be just as likely to fall on their face this season. The Chiefs could be without Tyreek Hill for a good chunk of the year and the offense didn’t look nearly as unstoppable once Kareem Hunt was released last season.
Father Time is still undefeated when it comes to careers and the finish line for Brady could be closer than most realize. These are all questions that will have to be answered by the teams listed above the Colts in terms of odds of winnings the AFC this season. The Colts are a complete team and they can beat any team in the AFC. Last year’s divisional round loss to the Chiefs wasn’t as lopsided as it seemed. At 7/1 to win the AFC Championship this to me not only represents huge value given the talent the Colts have but it also makes this my favorite team bet on the Colts this season and a bet I am going to put a good chunk of money on, and I think you should too.
Colts To Win The Super Bowl: 14/1
The Colts are my pick to win the AFC Championship this season as they have the talent on both sides of the ball to do so. Winning the Super Bowl though it a completely different monster as both the Saints and the Rams in the NFC are just as talented on the offensive side of the ball and in the Saints’ case are more talented on the defensive side of the ball.
The Colts are a strong enough team to win the AFC Championship, but it’s still a somewhat unlikely scenario and it’s tough to win the Super Bowl as well. The 14/1 odds of the Colts winning the Super Bowl this season look like relatively enticing odds as they are my pick to win the AFC, but I’m going to bet it smaller than my AFC bet.
