Ricky Dimon
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It’s no surprise, of course, that Iga Swiatek will be part of the French Open women’s singles final on Saturday. However, it was always assumed that she would face either Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina. Instead, it will be relatively little-known Jasmine Paolini on the other side of the net. Let’s take a look at the French Open best bets to be made on Day 14 at Roland Garros for the women’s singles final between Swiatek and Paolini.
Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini Under 17.5 games (-120)
Giving a huge amount of games with a favorite (Swiatek -6.5 in this case) or taking the under on a small game total generally isn’t my favorite play – but it is the way to play Saturday’s match. Swiatek is just too dominant. Aside from a second-round aberration against Naomi Osaka (7-6(1), 1-6, 7-5), the world #1 has not lost more than 6 games in any match. She even won 6-1, 6-2 in the first round, 6-0, 6-0 in the 4th round and 6-0, 6-2 in the quarterfinals.
Moreover, Swiatek and Paolini have gone head-to-head twice and the results are exactly what you would expect. The Pole prevailed 6-2, 6-1 on the red clay of Prague in 2018 and 6-3, 6-0 on the hard courts of the U.S. Open. Playing with the pressure of her first Grand Slam final, it’s hard to see Paolini being any more competitive on Saturday.
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Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini Under 7.5 service breaks (-110)
Under 7.5 service breaks was my best bet for the semifinal match between Swiatek and Coco Gauff, and that was an easy winner. Even though there were 18 games played (a relative marathon by Swiatek’s standards), there were just 5 breaks – including only 1 for Gauff. The analysis is the same for the final: if Swiatek wins swiftly, there simply won’t be enough time (ie, total games played) for the 2 players to combine for at least 8 breaks; if it is a somewhat long and competitive contest, it probably means Paolini is doing a good job holding her serve. Either way, we should be in good shape. It’s also worth noting that in 12 combined matches this fortnight, the 2 finalists have dropped serve a total of 28 times, or 2.3 times per match. All things considered, the under looks like a great bet.
Jasmine Paolini to hit more double-faults than Iga Swiatek (-125)
A tie (the 2 players hitting the same number of double-faults) is intriguing if you want to make a riskier play at +330, but I like the value of Paolini hitting the most double-faults. The Italian has committed 11 double-faults so far at Roland-Garros, while Swiatek comes in with a mere 4. Moreover, Swiatek is already a 4-time major champion (including 3 titles in Paris). She is an absolute veteran on this stage. Paolini, on the other hand, has never experienced anything like this situation.
Nowhere in tennis are nerves more obvious than on a player’s serve. Paolini will probably be going for it more than she usually does on her serve since Swiatek is certain to have the upper hand in baseline rallies. More risk on serve obviously leads to a lower percentage. The smart money is on the world #15 finishing with at least 2 doubles, while Swiatek is unlikely to hit more than 1.
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