Sam Avellone
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After 4 long months of the regular season, the Big Dance is finally back! Just like in years past, Pickswise has you covered on all things March Madness over the coming weeks – starting today with a guide on how to fill out your bracket and a breakdown of all 68 teams to help you make more informed bets. Let’s dive in.
How to win your March Madness bracket
March Madness never fails to deliver incredible competition, surprising upsets, and amazing buzzer-beaters – and this year should be no different. If you have not watched much college basketball throughout the season, then it can be difficult to figure out where to start when it comes to filling out your bracket. Even if you watch college hoops on a daily basis, filling out your bracket can be a difficult task – so here are some quick tips and FAQs that will help you get started.
- A #1 seed has won the last 5 NCAA Tournaments and 12 of the last 15. The only champions who were not #1 seeds in that time were: #2 Villanova (2016), #7 UConn (2014) and #3 UConn (2011). Furthermore, no team going into the tournament with greater than 10/1 odds has won the title since Villanova in 2016 (15/1).
- A west coast team has not won the title in over 25 years.
- Since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, #1 seeds are 127-1 SU in Round 1 and 146-21 in Round 2. When in doubt, advancing the 1-seeds to the Sweet 16 is usually a safe choice.
- #2 seeds (121-7) and #3 seeds (110-18) have won over 85% of their Round 1 games since 1985, while 4-seeds are 100-28 in that time frame.
- #5 seeds are 84-44 SU since 1985, but be careful! The #5 vs #12 has become a popular matchup for upsets in recent years, as #12 seeds are 6-6 straight up in Round 1 in the last three tournaments.
- #6 seeds have struggled recently despite being 81-47 SU in Round 1 since 1985. At least two #6 seeds have lost in each of the last two tournaments. Last year, three #6 seeds lost to #11 seeds in Round 1.
- Speaking of #11 seeds, make sure to advance one First Four team to the Round of 32 in your bracket. Since the First Four started in 2011, one team from the First Four has made it to the Round of 32 or later every year except 2019. Last year, Notre Dame was that team. This year it would be Arizona State, Nevada, Mississippi State or Pitt.
- Despite being the lower-ranked team, #9 seeds have been better than #8 seeds since 1985, winning 71 out of 128 matchups.
- Pay attention to the betting odds when you are not sure who to pick in your bracket – especially for lower-seeded teams. Since the shot clock was reduced to 30 seconds in 2015, teams seeded 9 through 15 that are favored are 31-13 SU in the NCAA Tournament.
- #11 is the lowest seed to make it to the Final Four. There have been five of them to do so – LSU (1986), George Mason (2006), VCU (2011), Loyola Chicago (2018) and UCLA (2021).
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March Madness bracket areas to focus on
There are a few things to look out for when picking teams to make deep runs in March Madness. Make sure a majority of your Elite 8 teams have most, if not all, of these characteristics:
- Experienced guards – Teams who make deep runs tend to have at least 1 junior or senior guard, usually with postseason experience, that can be relied on for his scoring and overall playmaking while minimizing turnovers.
- Above-average defenses – A vast majority of teams that make it to the Final Four rank in the top 40 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. That does not necessarily mean they rank in the top 40 right now, as they could play their way into that spot during their March Madness run.
- Offensive rebounding advantages – Earning second-chance opportunities while limiting opposing ones is a great trait to have in March Madness.
- Reliable free-throw shooting – A lot of NCAA Tournament games are close at the end, and free throws become crucial as teams try to extend games. Try to avoid advancing any team past the Round of 32 that shoots under 70% from the free-throw line.
- Consistency from the three-point line – The three-point line is the great equalizer in college basketball and an important part of today’s game. Teams who have consistent success from the perimeter are harder to defend and more likely to go on runs throughout a game.
Honorable Mention: A legitimate post presence – Many of the top teams have legitimate big men that can either protect the rim at an elite level, score at an elite level, or do both. Having someone that can control the paint could prove to be a valuable asset this March.
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March Madness guide to all 68 teams
South
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide team guide (29-5)
The SEC champions are the #1 overall seed. They are propelled by veteran guards, a future lottery pick in freshman Brandon Miller, and an elite rim protector in Charles Bediako. Noah Clowney can be an X-factor for the Tide as well.
#2 Arizona Wildcats team guide (28-6)
The Pac-12 Tournament champions have a top 5 offense according to KenPom’s efficiency metrics. They are 5-0 SU against non-conference opponents that made the tournament this season (San Diego State, Creighton, Indiana, Tennessee, Montana State).
#3 Baylor Bears team guide (22-10)
After back-to-back seasons as a #1 seed, the Bears find themselves as a 3-seed this year. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games, but they have the 2nd-most efficient offense in the country according to KenPom and 4 players remaining from the 2021 title team.
#4 Virginia Cavaliers team guide (25-7)
Since February 11th, the Cavaliers rank 181st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Bart Torvik. They have failed to score more than 65 points in 8 of their last 11 games. Forward Ben Vander Plas will miss the tournament with a fractured hand.
#5 San Diego State Aztecs team guide (27-6)
The top team in the Mountain West with a top 10 defense nationally. In fact, the Aztecs have the most efficient defense in the country over the last month according to BartTorvik and have yielded more than 65 points just 3 times in 9 games since February 11th. They also rank 21st in experience according to KenPom.
#6 Creighton Bluejays team guide (21-12)
The Bluejays had a 6-game losing streak early in the season, but 3 of those games were without Ryan Kalkbrenner. They are a veteran bunch that ranks in the top 30 nationally on both sides of the ball, but they have struggled offensively down the stretch. Creighton has all the pieces but can be inconsistent and struggles away from home.
#7 Missouri Tigers team guide (24-9)
Quite an impressive season from coach Dennis Gates in his first season in Columbia, MO. The Tigers have a top-10 offense per KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, but they rank just 178th on the defensive side of the ball.
#8 Maryland Terrapins team guide (21-12)
Like Gates at Missouri, Kevin Willard was very successful in his first season at Maryland. The Terrapins are a top-40 team on both sides of the ball but are outside the top 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month per BartTorvik.
#9 West Virginia Mountaineers team guide (19-14)
The Mountaineers started 1-6 SU in conference play but ended the season on a 6-4 run with big wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Tech. They earned non-conference wins over tournament teams Pitt and Auburn, but lost to the other tournament teams they played out of conference – Purdue and Xavier.
#10 Utah State Aggies team guide (26-8)
Utah State had a couple of questionable losses to Weber State and SMU, but the Aggies have a top-15 offense and one of the 15 most efficient defenses over the last month. Lack of depth could be an issue but there is plenty of experience on this team.
#11 NC State Wolfpack team guide (23-10)
The Wolfpack finished the season with 3 losses in 4 games and failed to beat a tournament team away from home this season. They rank outside the top 160 in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month but inside the top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency thanks to their dynamic guards, Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner, and skilled big man DJ Burns.
#12 College of Charleston Cougars team guide (31-3)
The Cougars won the CAA and are one of four 30-win teams this season. They play at a very fast pace under coach Pat Kelsey, led by senior guard Ryan Larson and versatile big man Ante Brzovic – who can score from anywhere on the floor.
#13 Furman Paladins team guide (27-7)
The Southern Conference champions finally punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament after their heartbreaking loss to Chattanooga at the buzzer in the SoCon title game last year. The Paladins have a top-35 offense that plays with pace and shooters spread out all over the floor. Seniors Mike Bothwell and Jalen Slawson have both been at Furman for 5 years and combine for 33.7 points per game.
#14 UCSB Gauchos team guide (27-7)
The Big West champions did not play any power conference opponents this year, nor did they play any tournament teams. Lack of depth and a poor strength of schedule could hold them back.
#15 Princeton Tigers team guide (21-8)
The Ivy League champions are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. They lack Division 1 experience much less postseason experience, and have a tough draw against the Arizona Wildcats on the west coast.
#16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi team guide (23-10) / Southeast Missouri State team guide (19-16)
The Southland champion will play the Ohio Valley Conference champion in a play-in game in Dayton to earn a date with top-seeded Alabama in Round 1.
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Midwest
#1 Houston Cougars team guide (31-3)
The Cougars have one of the best teams in the country with a suffocating defense that ranks 4th overall according to KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. They also have an elite trio of guards in Marcus Sasser, Jamal Shead and Tramon Mark — all of whom have played at least 2 years at Houston prior to this one. Hopefully, Sasser will be good to go after suffering a groin injury in the AAC tournament.
#2 Texas Longhorns team guide (26-8)
The Longhorns won the Big 12 Tournament with Rodney Terry at the helm rather than Chris Beard. Texas ranks in the top 20 on both sides of the ball according to KenPom, and has the 2nd-most efficient defense in the country over the last 4 weeks per BartTorvik. The Longhorns are 11-6 SU against tournament teams this year.
#3 Xavier Musketeers team guide (25-9)
The Musketeers have been without Zach Freemantle since February 1st and will continue to be throughout the tournament. However, they are 15th in offensive efficiency and 44th in defensive efficiency in the last month without him.
#4 Indiana Hoosiers team guide (22-11)
The Hoosiers were great during parts of the season, but they are 3-4 SU against tournament teams over the last month while ranking 112th in offensive efficiency and 74th in defensive efficiency in that time frame.
#5 Miami Hurricanes team guide (25-7)
The ACC regular season champs have an elite offense with experienced guards in Isaiah Wong and Nijel Pack and 4 other players who were with Wong on last year’s team that made a run to the Elite 8. They are 10th in offensive efficiency in the last 4 weeks per BartTorvik, scoring 120.1 points per 100 possessions against the average opponent.
#6 Iowa State Cyclones team guide (19-13)
The Cyclones are a defensive-minded team that can muck up any game. They rank 12th in defensive efficiency over the last month, but have not fared well outside of Hilton Coliseum – as they are 3-8 SU against tournament teams away from home.
#7 Texas A&M Aggies team guide (25-9)
The SEC Tournament runners-up feel under-seeded, as they are a top 40 team in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. While they defend the rim well, they give up a lot of perimeter shots – which could be troublesome for them against Penn State in Round 1.
#8 Iowa Hawkeyes team guide (19-13)
Iowa is one of the country’s premier offenses, but has lost 4 of its last 6 since February 19th with a miracle last-minute comeback win against Michigan State mixed in. Defensive inefficiencies will likely prevent them from making a deep run.
#9 Auburn Tigers team guide (20-12)
The Tigers lost 9 of their last 13 games but managed to hang on to a spot in the NCAA Tournament thanks to an early season win over Northwestern and their win over Tennessee in the regular season finale. They will benefit greatly from playing in Birmingham against Iowa, just a 2-hour drive from campus.
#10 Penn State Nittany Lions team guide (22-13)
The Nittany Lions are 5-1 SU since March 1st against tournament teams and had an amazing run to the Big Ten Championship as a 10-seed in the conference tournament. They are coincidentally seeded 10th in the NCAA Tournament, and will utilize a unique offense of ball screens that runs through Jalen Pickett and excels from the 3-point line.
#11 Mississippi State Bulldogs team guide (21-12) / Pittsburgh Panthers team guide (22-11)
Keep your eye on the winner of this play-in game to make it to the Round of 32. Mississippi State is the better defensive team while Pitt has the better offense.
#12 Drake Bulldogs team guide (27-7)
The Missouri Valley Tournament champions beat Mississippi State earlier in the season and are one of the 30 most experienced teams in the country with 4 seniors surrounding sophomore phenom Tucker DeVries in the starting lineup.
#13 Kent State Golden Flashes team guide (28-6)
Kent State lost to Charleston, Houston and Gonzaga by just 14 combined points, which is pretty impressive for the MAC champs. They are led by senior guard Sincere Carry but have experience and elite athleticism at most positions around him.
#14 Kennesaw State Owls team guide (26-8)
The Owls were 1-28 SU in 2019-2020 and 5-19 in 2020-2021, but turned it around under coach Amir Abdur-Rahim. They managed to beat Liberty twice this year and won the Atlantic Sun Tournament in the process – earning the school’s first NCAA Tournament appearance.
#15 Colgate Raiders team guide (26-8)
The Raiders are back in the NCAA Tournament after winning the Patriot League for the 4th time in 5 years. They have appeared in 3 straight tournaments due to the COVID cancellation in 2020, with two single-digit losses and one 17-point loss to power conference opponents in those appearances.
#16 Northern Kentucky Norse team guide (22-12)
The Norse won the Horizon League and are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. Their rotation is made up of mostly juniors and seniors and they are very effective in their zone defense, but they struggle offensively.
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West
#1 Kansas Jayhawks team guide (27-7)
Many thought Kansas should have been the 2nd overall seed playing in the Kansas City region, but they ended up 3rd and will be playing in the Las Vegas region. The Jayhawks lost in the Big 12 title game without Bill Self on the sidelines, but he is expected back for the tournament. Kansas ranks 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month.
#2 UCLA Bruins team guide (29-5)
The Bruins just barely lost to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, which was their first loss since January 26. They will likely be without Jaylen Clark, one of the country’s premier defenders, due to injury. However, they have 3 experienced players from 2021’s Final Four run – Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jaquez, and David Singleton.
#3 Gonzaga Bulldogs team guide (28-5)
The ‘Zags may not be a #1 seed, but they are still capable of making noise and going on a deep run. They have the most efficient offense in the country, as well as one of the best coaches in Mark Few and one of the most skilled big men in Drew Timme.
#4 UConn Huskies team guide (25-8)
The Huskies won 14 straight games to open the season, but then lost 5 of 6 and lacked consistency. They rank 6th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency per KenPom, and are starting to round back into form as of late. When they are in form, they are dangerous on both sides of the ball, but turnovers and lack of discipline defensively can be their Achilles heel.
#5 Saint Mary’s Gaels team guide (26-7)
The Gaels play at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 359th in adjusted tempo and average possession length. Their defense is elite – 9th nationally – and they have a senior point guard in Logan Johnson that controls the offense, but free throws are a concern. So is their lack of depth.
#6 TCU Horned Frogs team guide (21-12)
Eddie Lampkin is no longer with the program, so the Frogs will not have their rim-protector with them for their tournament run. That will hurt defensively, but TCU has a lot of experience and can rely on Mike Miles Jr, Damion Baugh, and Emanuel Miller for offense. Coach Jaime Dixon was 7-17 ATS in the NCAA Tournament before TCU covered both of its March Madness games last year.
#7 Northwestern Wildcats team guide (21-11)
Northwestern punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament with some big wins over Purdue, Indiana, and Rutgers down the stretch. The Wildcats have the 7th-most efficient defense in the last month according to BartTorvik and 2 senior guards in Boo Buie and Chase Audige that combine for 30.9 points per game.
#8 Arkansas Razorbacks team guide (20-13)
The Razorbacks are much better than their 8th seed would suggest. They dealt with injuries for most of the season, but future lottery pick Nick Smith is back in the lineup. Subpar shooting percentages from the free-throw line and three-point line could hold them back, as well as a heavy reliance on inexperienced guards.
#9 Illinois Fighting Illini team guide (20-12)
Illinois is a lot like its first-round opponent Arkansas, as the Illini are good on both ends of the floor but struggle from the 3-point line and the free-throw line. Brad Underwood has 3 guys with ample postseason experience in Terrence Shannon, Matthew Mayer, and Coleman Hawkins, but there is a lot of inexperience around them. The Illini have failed to make it out of the Round of 32 in back-to-back years.
#10 Boise State Broncos team guide (24-9)
The Broncos lost to the Utah State Aggies in the Mountain West Tournament, but earned their place in the NCAA Tournament with regular season wins over Washington State, Colorado, Texas A&M, Utah State, Nevada and San Diego State. They do not have much depth, but they have 2 senior guards in Marcus Shaver and Max Rice that have postseason experience and everyone in their starting 5 averages over 10 points per game.
#11 Arizona State Sun Devils team guide (22-12) / Nevada Wolf Pack team guide (22-10)
The winner of this game could benefit from playing TCU without Lampkin. Arizona State guard Desmond Cambridge used to play for Nevada.
#12 VCU Rams team guide (27-7)
The Atlantic 10 champions have the 14th-best defensive efficiency over the last month and turn opponents over at the 19th-highest rate over that same amount of time. They come into the tournament on the nation’s 6th-longest winning streak and are led by junior guard Ace Baldwin.
#13 Iona Gaels team guide (27-7)
The Gaels have the nation’s 3rd-longest winning streak at 14 games and will benefit from staying in their home state when they play UConn in Albany. They have not played against any power conference opponents this season, so the step up in class against UConn could prove to be too much for them.
#14 Grand Canyon Antelopes team guide (24-11)
The WAC champs have the unfortunate reality of playing Gonzaga in Round 1. They lack size to defend Timme and postseason experience at the guard position.
#15 UNC Asheville Bulldogs team guide (27-7)
The Bulldogs are an interesting 15-seed. They have won 9 straight and have 2 players in Tajion Jones and Drew Pember (a former Tennessee Volunteer) that can keep them competitive against short-handed UCLA. If I had to pick one #15 or #16 seed to spring an upset, UNCA would be my pick.
#16 Howard Bison team guide (22-12)
Howard is dancing for the first time since 1992, but will have to play against Kansas in Round 1. The Bison have depth, but they rank 356th in turnover rate.
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East
#1 Purdue Boilermakers team guide (29-5)
The Big Ten champions are the final 1-seed and will be playing in the East region. They play at a slow pace and are highly efficient on both ends of the floor thanks to 7-4 big man Zach Edey. Inexperience at the guard position is worrisome, as is streaky perimeter shooting.
#2 Marquette Golden Eagles team guide (28-6)
The Big East champions are on a 9-game winning streak coming into the NCAA Tournament and rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency over the last month. However, their lineup consists of mostly sophomores and freshmen.
#3 Kansas State Wildcats team guide (23-9)
Kansas State has the 22nd-most efficient defense over the last month, but is outside the top 110 in offensive efficiency in that span. While the Wildcats rank 299th in turnover rate, they have elite scoring options in Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. If they get hot, the Wildcats could go on a run.
#4 Tennessee Volunteers team guide (23-10)
The Vols have the 2nd-best defense according to KenPom, but they rank 32nd in efficiency in the last month per BartTorvik. They will be without Zakai Zeigler, who is not only one of their leaders offensively but one of their best perimeter defenders. Rick Barnes is just 2-6 ATS with Tennessee in the NCAA Tournament and 2-12-1 ATS in his last 15 NCAA Tournament games overall.
#5 Duke Blue Devils team guide (26-8)
The ACC champions are as hot as any team in the country right now, having won 9 straight games under first-year head coach Jon Scheyer. A lot of their recent success has to do with being extremely efficient on both ends of the ball – ranking in the top 20 on both ends over the last 4 weeks. Duke will benefit from having Jeremy Roach running the offense after being a main contributor in its run to the Final Four last year, while the two 7-footers, Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively, will defend the rim at a high level. However, lack of postseason experience outside of Roach, including at head coach, could be a lot to overcome.
#6 Kentucky Wildcats team guide (21-11)
The Wildcats sometimes seem uninterested on the defensive end, which held them back at various points throughout the season including in the SEC Tournament. However, they have elite offensive talent and can beat any team in the country on any given night. It will be hard to trust them considering they lost to South Carolina and Georgia this season after losing to Saint Peter’s as a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament last year.
#7 Michigan State Spartans team guide (19-12)
The Spartans lost to a motivated Ohio State team in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, but they ended the regular season on a 5-2 SU run with wins over Maryland and Indiana. Defense is a concern, as Michigan State ranks 112th in efficiency over the last 4 weeks.
#8 Memphis Tigers team guide (26-8)
The AAC Tournament champions rank in the top 21 on both sides of the ball over the last month. Kendric Davis is one of the best players in the country and could lead the Tigers on a deep run in the tournament with the help of his peer in the post, DeAndre Williams. Only one player in the rotation is not a senior, and they are 3-1 SU against tournament teams not named Houston.
#9 FAU Owls team guide (31-3)
The Conference USA champions were one of four 30-win teams this season. They play well on both sides of the floor, but have been especially good defensively since February 11th. 7-1 Vladislav Goldin will be difficult to guard in the post considering he is surrounded by four players that shoot over 37.5% from the perimeter.
#10 USC Trojans team guide (22-10)
The Trojans had a couple of head-scratching losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Oregon State but ultimately earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament with wins over Auburn, UCLA and Arizona State. Andy Enfield is 7-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2016.
#11 Providence Friars team guide (21-11)
Providence was on the bubble but earned its way into the Big Dance with wins over Marquette, UConn, and Creighton. The entire starting 5 averages double figures, but the Friars rank 224th in defensive efficiency over the last 4 weeks.
#12 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles team guide (30-4)
Oral Roberts is on the nation’s longest winning streak, having won 17 games in a row after it won the Summit League Tournament. The Golden Eagles live and die by the 3 and are oftentimes involved in high-scoring affairs. Max Abmas, star of the 2021 NCAA Tournament, is still on the team.
#13 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns team guide (26-7)
The Sun Belt champions squeaked by South Alabama to earn their spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. They are still seeking their first NCAA Tournament win in program history.
#14 Montana State Bobcats team guide (25-9)
The Bobcats are back in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year with an experienced rotation consisting of mostly juniors and seniors. Multiple contributors from last year’s team remain, but they lost to Oregon by 30 points and Arizona by 21 points earlier this season.
#15 Vermont Catamounts team guide (23-10)
Vermont is on the nation’s 2nd-longest winning streak with 15 straight wins. However, they have not beaten a tournament team this year, nor have they beaten anyone in KenPom’s top 100.
#16 Texas Southern team guide (14-20) / Fairleigh Dickinson team guide (19-15)
Texas Southern ranks 330th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and beat just 9 Division 1 teams during the regular season. Fairleigh Dickinson ranks 361st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and lost by 20+ to the only top 100 team it played – Pitt.
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