Ricky Dimon
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No game in all of sports has more available betting markets than the Super Bowl. After all, no game inspires more action from the betting public. You can make all kinds of wild Super Bowl Prop Bets like wagering on the coin toss, the Gatorade color that the winning coach gets dumped with and unusual in-game occurrences like a kick hitting a post, an octopus (the same player scoring a touchdown and the ensuing 2-point conversion) or a safety.
Let’s take a look at the history of safeties in the Super Bowl and discuss the odds on at least 1 safety taking place in this year’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
How many safeties have been scored in Super Bowl?
There have been 9 total safeties scored in the history of the Super Bowl. All 9 have happened in different games, meaning there has never been more than 1 safety scored in a single Super Bowl.
The first such instance came in Super Bowl IX, when Steelers defensive end Dwight White sacked Vikings quarterback Fran Tarkenton in the endzone. Safeties also happened in Super Bowl X, Super Bowl XX, Super Bowl XXI, Super Bowl XXV, Super Bowl XLIII, Super Bowl XLVI, Super Bowl XLVII and Super Bowl XLVIII. That most recent instance in Super Bowl XLVIII saw the Broncos – on the very first play from scrimmage – snap the ball past QB Peyton Manning and into the endzone, where RB Knowshon Moreno recovered it and was tackled for a safety.
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Will There Be A Safety in the Super Bowl Odds
As you might expect given how long the odds are, prices on a safety have a lot of variance between sportsbooks. For example, a safety happening has Super Bowl Odds of +750 at BetMGM. However, you can get a safety at +1000 at both DraftKings and Caesars.
Does “yes” have good value? Well, 9 safeties in 56 Super Bowls means it happens 16.1 percent of the time. That percentage is significantly larger than the implied probability of +1000 – and even +750. Also, are we “due” for a safety? After there was 1 in three consecutive Super Bowls, we have since gone 8 straight Super Bowls without seeing a 2-point defensive play. The longest drought between Super Bowl safeties is 18 years.
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Will There Be A Safety in Super Bowl 57 – Yes or No odds & trends
Needless to say, you will have to pay quite a premium for the “No” option on a safety. At DraftKings, “Yes” is +1000 and “No” is -2500.
If +1000 odds aren’t enough for you, feel free to go even bigger on a more specific safety market. A safety being the first score of Super Bowl LVII is +2800. If you want to bet on the specific team that scores the first points via a safety, both Kansas City and Philadelphia are priced at +5000.
As mentioned earlier, a safety being the first score is not unprecedented. That was the case when Seattle put up 2 points right away on Denver thanks to the errant snap past Manning in Super Bowl XLVIII.
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