Ricky Dimon
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The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs kicks off with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans on Saturday afternoon. Kansas City earned a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed in the AFC after compiling a 15-2 record during the regular season. Houston secured a playoff spot and a home game by winning the AFC South at 10-7, leading to a 32-12 beatdown of the Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s get into my Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay picks for this crunch matchup at +1100 odds, which gets underway at 4:30 pm ET on ESPN. You can also check out our NFL picks on the side and total for every Divisional Round game this weekend.
Texans +8.5 (-115)
Joe Mixon over 57.5 rushing yards (-110)
Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown (+215)
Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay odds: +1000
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Houston running back Joe Mixon delivering his fair share of yards would obviously work well with a cover by the Texans. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Kansas City receiver Xavier Worthy to find the end zone. But even if he does, there is no reason why Houston can’t keep things close. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Houston Texans +8.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (-115)
The Chiefs effectively took Week 18 off since they already locked up the #1 seed. That means they are basically coming off 2 straight byes and therefore won’t have played a real game in 3 weeks by the time they take the field on Saturday. That is all well and good from a rest and recuperation standpoint, but it’s hard to see them coming out as a well-oiled machine right away in the first quarter.
Regardless, 8.5 points should be enough for Houston even if the best version of this 2024 Kansas City squad shows up. These Chiefs simply don’t blow teams out. 11 of their wins have come by 8 points or fewer, including against none other than the Texans in Week 16. I don’t think the home team will score enough to win by double-digits on Saturday, either. Houston’s defense ranks 5th overall (315.0 yards per game), 4th in success-rate allowed, 5th in EPA per play and 2nd in points per quality possession allowed. With Patrick Mahomes as a starter at Arrowhead Stadium, KC is 54-15 SU but a mere 31-35-3 ATS. The Chiefs may win, but I’ll take the visitors to cover.
Read our full Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions, featuring a 3-star best bet!
Joe Mixon over 57.5 rushing yards (-110)
Mixon was a disaster during the fantasy playoffs and for the first half against Los Angeles it looked like that trend would continue in the real playoffs. Suddenly, however, the former Oklahoma standout ran like a man possessed the rest of the way – helping his team roll into the Divisional Round. Mixon finished with 106 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Those 25 touches tied the 2nd-highest mark of the season for Mixon and I expect a similar volume of work this weekend.
The Texans may not be playing from ahead like they were against the Chargers, but that shouldn’t stop them from keeping the ball on the ground. Sometimes the best defense against Mahomes and company is running the clock and keeping them off the field for as long as possible. If Mixon can victimize a stout Chargers defense for 100-plus, asking him to pin at least 58 yards on the Chiefs shouldn’t be too much. I love this leg for our Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay.
Don’t miss our best Texans vs Chiefs player prop bets after our experts went 8-2 last week!
Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown (+215)
Worthy stormed out of the gates like gangbusters as a rookie, scoring 2 touchdowns in the first week, 3 in the first 4 games and 4 in the first 7. The Texas product hit a midseason lull when DeAndre Hopkins started shouldering some of the pass-catching load, but he is once again on fire heading into the playoffs. Worthy found the end zone in each of his last 3 regular-season games — twice through the air and once on the ground. He now faces a Houston defense that surrendered 31 TDs through the air during the regular season. Only the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers gave up more. Let’s back Worthy to continue his scoring binge and bring home our Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay.
