Ricky Dimon
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There are 2 games on Saturday this week, starting with a crucial AFC contest between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs. The question earlier this week was whether or not Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes would be able to play. After once looking unlikely to suit up, Mahomes was cleared on Thursday – ballooning the spread from Chiefs +2 to Chiefs -3.5. Can Kansas City justify those odds? Let’s dive into our Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which gets underway at 1:00 pm ET on NBC. Also, be sure to check out all of our NFL picks for every Week 16 matchup.
Chiefs -5.5 alternate spread (+126)
DeAndre Hopkins to score a touchdown (+230)
Joe Mixon to score a touchdown (-125)
Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay odds: +1300
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Kansas City receiver DeAndre Hopkins finding the endzone would obviously work well with a big win by the Chiefs. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Houston running back Joe Mixon to score a touchdown of his own. But even if he does, there is no reason why the Chiefs can’t dominate the Texans and win by at least a touchdown. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 alternate spread over Houston Texans (+126)
With Mahomes having made a surprisingly quick recovery from a sprained ankle, the Chiefs should be in good shape to get the job done on Saturday. They are 13-1 but have not yet wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, so they will be extremely motivated to maintain their winning ways. The Texans (9-5) have already clinched the AFC South title and have no chance of getting the #1 seed and a first-round bye. They will still be trying to win, of course, but it’s not as if this team is desperate for a W. Houston isn’t playing particularly well right now, either. It is 3-3 in its past 6 outings, a stretch that includes losses to the lowly New York Jets and Tennessee Titans. C.J. Stroud has taken a bit of a step back this season – largely due to a lack of protection from his offensive line – and improvement is unlikely to come against Chris Jones and a dangerous KC defense. I’ll back the Chiefs to win by at least a touchdown.
Read our full Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
DeAndre Hopkins to score a touchdown (+230)
DeAndre Hopkins has scored 5 touchdowns this season and – unsurprisingly – has been especially productive since joining forces with Mahomes and the Chiefs prior to the trade deadline. The 32-year-old has delivered 4 of his 5 TDs for his new team, including a multi-touchdown performance during a victory over the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers last month. Hopkins now faces a Houston defense that has allowed 27 passing TDs this year (tied for the most in the entire NFL) compared to just 7 on the ground. This is a great opportunity for the Clemson product – especially at +230 odds.
Find out our Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens predictions for Saturday’s other matchup
Joe Mixon to score a touchdown (-125)
This is also a favorable matchup for Mixon. The Chiefs’ defense is solid against the pass, having surrendered only 6.9 yards per attempt and 18 touchdowns. It is true that Kansas City defends the run pretty well, too, but it has allowed a rushing touchdown in each of the last 2 weeks. Now head coach Andy Reid’s outfit has the task of containing Mixon, who has racked up 12 TDs in 2024 – 11 rushing and 1 receiving. The former Oklahoma standout has found the end zone 10 times in the past 9 contests and has every reason to continue his hot streak.
Now find out our Steelers vs Ravens Same Game Parlay picks for Saturday at +417 odds!
