Russell Wilson will once again be looking for his first win with the Denver Broncos when they entertain the Houston Texans on Sunday. Wilson and company had a chance to start the season with a big victory, but they lost on Monday Night Football to his former team – the Seattle Seahawks. As for the Texans, they do not yet have either a win or a loss. They are coming off a tie with the Indianapolis Colts.
Here are our predictions and best bets for this AFC contest.
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Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos spread, odds & betting lines
Point Spread: Broncos -9.5, Texans +10.5
Total Points Over/Under: 45.5 points
Money Line Odds: Broncos -460, Texans +360
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Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos expert picks
We have three NFL picks for this week’s clash between Houston and Denver, including 2-star selections both against the spread and on the over/under.
Against the spread pick: Broncos -9.5 (-110) over Texans
Your first order of business here is to forget everything you saw from these two teams in Week 1. Forget about how tough the Texans played the Colts and forget about how bad the Broncos looked in Seattle. The Broncos are clearly the better team and while Nathaniel Hackett will forever be vilified for playing for the field goal in their Week 1 loss, you cannot let it cloud your judgment when matching them up against a team whose win total was 4.5 heading into the season. The Broncos are one of the best teams against the spread in their first home game of the season. They are 7-1-2 ATS over their last 10 seasons and that winning percentage stays up no matter how far back you want to go. Lovie Smith’s Texans were amped up for their first home game of the season but now have to travel to Denver where most, if not all, teams struggle with the altitude. Their defensive scheme looks great on paper but will have difficulty containing Denver’s firepower.
The Broncos have a strong, well-balanced team, and let’s not forget what last week’s score would have looked like had they not twice fumbled the ball at the goal-line. Wilson is still working out the early-season kinks and will have a much better rapport with his receivers this time around. No one likes to lay nearly double-digit points when betting the NFL, but with strong offensive weapons and a defense that needs to prove itself this week, Denver should win this game handily and right the wrongs of Week 1.
Be sure to check out our full Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos predictions
Over/Under totals pick: Under 45.5
After last week’s debacle on the road, the Broncos know they need to right the ship and will take it out on a Houston defense that played well enough to eke out a tie against the Colts, but won’t be able to handle Denver’s offense. Nathaniel Hackett’s admission of regret from Week 1 will likely show up in the form of letting Russell Wilson do his thing and having offensive coordinator Justin Outten call plays of a less-conservative nature. The 1-2 punch out of the backfield will shine bright against a Texans defense that allowed 177 rushing yards last week and Wilson will line up more shots to his wide receivers than we witnessed in Week 1. The results will be exactly what we expected to see during the preseason.
Meanwhile, the Texans are going to have a tough time consistently moving the ball against Denver. Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is a branch on the Vic Fangio coaching tree and he plans on being aggressive against this mediocre offensive line of Houston. We can expect a heavy blitz package and lots of pressure on quarterback Davis Mills. The Texans gave it all they got in Week 1, but heading into Denver, playing in that altitude and facing an angry team looking to rebound is going to make scoring very difficult for them.
Anytime touchdown scorer pick: Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN (+130)
Monday Night Football was very messy for the Broncos, but Sutton and Jerry Jeudy proved to be a very formidable WR duo for Wilson. Sutton finished with 7 targets, 4 receptions and 72 yards with a long of 30 yards. Last week against the Texans, Colts WR Michael Pittman had a monster game that should correlate what Sutton can do against this secondary. Sutton lined up out wide 80% of the time (Pittman 100%) and he had the highest aDOT in the league in Week 1 (19.1). Wilson will be eager to bounce back from Week 1 and the former SMU standout should be one of the pass-catching beneficiaries.
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and Best Bets from the rest of the Week 2 action.
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