Best Bet – Texans Over 8.5 Wins (+110)
Worst Bet – Texans To Win The Super Bowl (+3300)
The Houston Texans made the playoffs last season after finishing with a record of 11-5 and winning the AFC South. Houston had a strong end to the year as they started off the season 0-3 before winning 11 of their final 13 games. They have a young and talented nucleus of talent on offense with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and one of the best receiver duos in the NFL in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Houston lost to the division rival Indianapolis Colts in the wild card round which was a huge disappointment but will look to build on what was still a good season overall last year.
Houston had an average offense last season ranking 12th in the NFL in points per game with 24.06, 7th in rushing yards per game with 125.06 and 17th in passing yards per game with 235.18. The Texans had a below average offensive line last season but made two picks early in the draft to address the issue, selecting Tytus Howard in the 1st round and Max Scharpling in the 2nd round, which should help make Watson’s life easier. The running game will still be in good shape as Watson is one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL, but starting running back Lamar Miller is on the decline.
The Texans can remain one of the better defensive teams in the NFL as long as they stay healthy. Houston allowed an average of 19.82 points per game last season which ranked 5th in the league, they allowed 89.59 rushing yards per game which ranked 4th, and ranked 26th in passing yards per game with 258.18. They addressed the weakness in the secondary by adding Lonnie Johnson Jr. at cornerback, and although it likely will take a season or two to get adjusted to the pro game, he looks like one of the better picks at the position this season and should be able to contribute right away.
Texans Win Total: O/U 8.5 Wins
The Texans finished the season with a record of 11-5 last year and have looked like one of the better teams in the AFC ever since Watson took over at quarterback. They will have to play a tough schedule, facing off against the teams that finished in 1st place in their divisions in the AFC as well as the NFC South and AFC West that each have strong teams in their own right. However, assuming health isn’t a huge concern this season they will continue to be a contender. They are easily a better team than the Titans or the Jaguars, and with the dynamic offense they have as well as the weaknesses those two teams have in the division, it’s easy to see Houston going over 8.5 wins. Houston won 11 games last season after starting the year off 0-3 and a main reason for the slow start last year was Watson coming off the devastating ACL injury he suffered the previous season. They have one of the strongest teams in the AFC and can challenge the Colts for the division title. I look for the over 8.5 wins to be the best bet for the Texans this season.
Odds To Make The Playoffs: Yes +130 No -160
This line is a bit puzzling. After finishing in 1st place last year in the AFC South the oddsmakers believe the Texans have more than a 50/50 chance of missing the playoffs this season. The defense that was one of the best in the league last season remains intact for the most part and the offensive line which a weakness last season will be improved this year. It will likely be at least midseason before the offensive line plays up to their potential, as the rookies get accustomed to the pro level, but they will eventually allow more time for Watson to throw the ball. The Texans have an elite group of receivers as well, so you don’t have to worry about their weapons. Houston should challenge the Colts for the division title and even if they finish 2nd in the division they should still be one of the top second-place teams in the AFC this season. At +130 I would recommend putting some money on the Texans making the playoffs as they should get in as a wild card team even if they don’t repeat as division champions.
Odds To Win The AFC South: +275
Many believe the Colts will be the division winners in the AFC South this season and for good reason as they are one of the top 3-5 teams in the conference and possibly the NFL. However, I look at this as more of a toss-up division, although I do give the slight edge to the Colts. . At +275 to win the AFC South the Texans seem to have some value. An injury to Andrew Luck’s balky shoulder would catapult the Texans to being overwhelming favorites to win the division and even without that happening they still have close to a 50/50 chance of winning it. This is an easy bet to take considering the absurd line here.
Odds To Win The AFC: 16/1
The Texans have the 7th best odds to win the AFC this season and although those seem like good odds for a division winner from last season it’s hard to see this happening as the teams listed above them are the Patriots, Colts, Chiefs, Steelers, Browns and Chargers. All those teams seem to be better than the Texans on paper, so they’ll have a tough time making a deep playoff run. Houston has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and could challenge for a division title, but I would put them more in-line with a wild card spot this season, which means they would have to go on the road throughout the playoffs which is extremely difficult to do. I look for them to make the playoffs but winning the AFC and making the Super Bowl is a different story. If you want to bet on a long shot that should make the playoffs and has a chance, albeit a small one, to win the AFC, then look no further than the Texans at 16/1 to do so.
Odds To Win The Super Bowl: 33/1
While the Texans are being slept on, there are still multiple teams in both conferences that are better options as far as bets go to win the Super Bowl. Houston is an above average team on both sides of the ball and could eventually be in the Super Bowl discussion a season or two from now, but I don’t see that being the case this year. At 33/1 the Texans aren’t a good bet to win the Super Bowl this season, as they just aren’t complete enough to make that kind of a run.
