Matthew Lowrimore
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Best Bet – Houston Rockets Over 52.5 Wins (-125)
Worst Bet – Houston Rockets to Make the Playoffs (-550)
The Rockets had another great season and made the postseason as the fourth seed. They took on the Jazz in the first round and beat them without too much trouble. They then took on the Warriors, who have been their kryptonite. When the series was tied at 2-2, the Rockets lost game five in Golden State. This was the same game that saw Kevin Durant go down the first time. All pressure was on the Rockets to win in game six and to do so without Kevin Durant on the floor. Not to mention, they were on their home floor. The Rockets were even the favorite in this game. Long story short the Rockets choked and went home for the rest of the playoffs.
Then came the offseason. It was quickly leaked that Harden and Paul were not getting along. They were not speaking, and it seemed like the front office was going to have to make a move. They finally came to terms with Oklahoma City to bring Russell Westbrook to the Rockets and send Chris Paul to the Thunder. This was one of the biggest trades this summer and now has the Rockets as one of the top favorites to win the NBA title.
Some key stats from last season includes James Harden, who averaged 36.1 points per game. Clint Capela averaged a double-double with 16.2 points per game and 12.7 rebounds per game. The biggest question mark heading into this season is how Harden and Westbrook will play together. Throw out their days in Oklahoma City together because back then they were not considered superstars. Westbrook averaged 22.9 points per game last season with the Thunder. There will not be enough points to go around to have these kinds of averages, so one of these guys will likely have to take a back seat to the other. This should not be a huge problem, but it will be different not seeing Westbrook or Harden going off every night. As long as these guys can put their egos aside, the Rockets are in for a very big year.
Houston Rockets Win Total: O/U 52.5 Wins
The Rockets won 53 games last year, so they would have barely eclipsed this mark. Adding Westbrook should easily make them a 55+ win team. Chris Paul only played 58 games last year and the Rockets were able to win consistently without him. They still have Eric Gordan as well, so that is yet another scoring option. Then you add in Clint Capela and this lineup is going to be hard to play against.
This is probably my favorite prop bet for the Rockets. The Rockets are easily one of the top four teams, which should lead to a very good season. Getting rid of Chris Paul should help them because it has been known that Harden and Paul did not get along. Harden and Westbrook are friends and former teammates, so they should be able to work through any issues should they arise. I will take the over in the prop with medium confidence.
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes -550, No +425
The Rockets were the fourth seed last season an added Russell Westbrook, who is arguably better than Chris Paul. The addition of Westbrook should make them better. However, it all depends if Harden and Westbrook can step back when they need too. Westbrook has been quoted saying that he is willing to sacrifice for the team. Regardless of what has been said, I still think there could be some issues that arise. It should in no way affect their ability to make the playoffs, but it is something to consider when deciding if you want to bet this prop.
The Rockets are going to make the playoffs. They are too good of a team not to finish in at least the top five. However, at -550, there is still no way that I am going to lay that price. Therefore, the official play is to stay away.
Odds to win Southwest Division: -250
The Rockets only ended up winning the division by five games last season. The Spurs are really the only threat to the Rockets an even they are not at the level that the Rockets are at. The only thing that worries me is if the Rockets clinch a playoff spot early and start to rest their players. This could allow the Spurs to creep back into the picture and maybe even still a division title. Especially when a division title does not mean all that much, the Rockets could easily be happy with a top seed and not care about the division.
At -250 this is a play I will not be betting. There are too many factors over the course of an 82-game season and I would not feel comfortable laying this price.
Odds to win the Western Conference: +400
The Rockets may have added Westbrook, but the Rockets have continued to choke the past few years in the playoffs. I personally do not believe they can beat the Clippers in a seven-game series, and +400 is not enough value on a team that I think is going to have chemistry issues.
I would stay away from this prop because the Rockets have not shown they can win the big games in the playoffs. Again, there is just not enough value for me to take the Rockets to win the conference.
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +800
This is like the prop of winning the Western Conference. The Rockets will have to prove they can win in the playoffs before I even think about placing a bet on them to win the NBA title.
Even with the addition of Russell Westbrook, it is certainly not enough for me to jump on this prop. This is a stay away for me.
