Matt Selz
Show Bio
The second race of the year at Kansas Speedway comes on Sunday in the form of the Hollywood Casino 400. Kansas is a favorite track among drivers, teams and fans alike for all of the various ways around the track and the great racing it puts on. Earlier this year we saw a great race in the AdventHealth 400 with a lot of passing and cars moving up and down the grid. More of that will be expected for the second race in the Round of 16 in the NASCAR playoffs.
Kansas Speedway betting strategies
Kansas might seem like a run-of-the-mill intermediate track at the 1.5-mile distance, but it’s not. It is a driver’s track. What do I mean by that? There are multiple grooves on the track and the drivers can put the car wherever they want to to be able to find speed and grip and pass. The passing is typically high at Kansas which leads to exciting races. It also means that the field can be a little more wide open for betting than it typically is at track-position 1.5-mile tracks.
So for us, the style of racing that we’ll see at Kansas on Sunday is good for not only outright win bets but also for prop bets if we pick the right bets and lines to go after.
Hollywood Casino 400 race winner picks
Kyle Busch (+600)
Kyle Busch had a dominant car last weekend, leading for 154 laps before his car’s engine blew. He also ran incredibly well in Kansas earlier in May, as well as at a few other comparable mile-and-a-half tracks. The Toyotas have come on strong in the second half of the season and there’s no reason to doubt that Busch will have a ton of speed again this week even after his disappointment last week.
Kyle Larson (+800)
Larson finished P2 in Kansas earlier this year, the only Chevy to crack the top 5. He also won this race a year ago. He’s been lightning quick on intermediate tracks this year and even made up multiple laps last week after a disastrous start. He’s had the best Driver Rating and average finish at Kansas in the last 6 races there, which includes races with Chip Ganassi Racing when he had lesser equipment than he does with Hendrick Motorsports.
William Byron (+1700)
William Byron said before the race last week that he was no longer being used as the test car for Hendrick. Guess what? He was immediately as fast as he’d been to start the year. That speed should show up again this weekend at a track that he’s posted an average finish inside the top-10 over the last 6 races.
Bubba Wallace (+2000)
Bubba Wallace had arguably the fastest car on track the last time the Cup drivers were at Kansas in May. He led the field in Quality Passes — passing a car in the top-15 under green flag conditions — with 60. Wallace was the ‘worst of the Toyota finishers in 10th, but that was mainly due to his pit crew. The pit issues have been fixed and on top of that, he’s in the #45 car now, which won in dominant fashion for Kurt Busch in May. He is not be a playoff driver, but that didn’t stop Erik Jones last week.
Check out our F1 predictions for the Italian Grand Prix.
Best NASCAR prop bets for Kansas Speedway
Toyota race winning manufacturer (+120)
If you noticed above, half of our winner bets drive Toyotas. One Toyota won in Kansas earlier in the year and all 6 finished in the top 10, including 5 of the top 6. This track has suited the Toyotas’ setup for the last few years and especially this year. We’re still getting plus odds for this bet even with them being the favorite manufacturer to win and that’s too good to not take advantage of.
Austin Dillon top-10 finish (+125)
In 3 of the last 4 races at Kansas, Austin Dillon has finished 11th or better. In 10 races at intermediate tracks this year, he’s posted 8 top-15 finishes with more than half of those being 12th or better. While last week was a bit disappointing from him, he has typically gone better at Kansas than at Darlington, so we won’t let that put us off.
Kyle Larson (-117) vs Chase Elliott
Larson has had better pure speed than Chase Elliott at all of the comparable tracks this year including in Kansas in May when Larson finished 2nd. Larson had a lot more speed last week too. The track history is in Larson’s favor as well with a better average finish in the last 4 races than Elliott, including a win.
Alex Bowman (-117) vs Ty Gibbs
This one is pretty simple. Alex Bowman is just a better Cup driver at this point and has an established record at this track. While Ty Gibbs has all of the talent in the world, he’s just not a top-10 capable driver yet and that’s likely where Bowman will be running this weekend. I nearly included Bowman (+3500) to win which is another check in his column for this matchup.
At Pickswise we offer free NASCAR picks including analysis and NASCAR betting advice from expert NASCAR handicappers.
