Filip Tomic
Winner takes all in Atlanta on Friday as the Heat and Hawks play it out for the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference. Tip-off is at 7 pm ET on TNT, I’ve picked out my 4 favorite bets and combined them into a tasty +495 odds Same Game Parlay. Get predictions on the side and total for all upcoming NBA Playoffs games on our NBA Picks page, but without further ado let’s dive into my Heat vs Hawks bet!
Heat ML (-104)
Tyler Herro to Score 25+ Points (-154)
Trae Young to Record 10+ Assists (-215)
Dyson Daniels to Record 6+ Rebounds (-310)
Same Game Parlay odds: +495
Heat ML (-104)
Miami surprised a lot of people by not just winning their play-in game vs Chicago, but in the manner in which they did so. They held one of the most prolific offenses in the NBA to just 90 points and under 40% shooting from the field and just 27% from three. That performance reminded us of the good old days when the Heat were a tough nut to crack on defense. I expect a similar approach in Friday’s game vs Atlanta, especially against star player Trae Young whom the Heat have been able to contain fairly well over the past 5 meetings. The two teams did split the 4 regular season meetings this year, however the Heat did win the 2 most recent ones, both by double-digits.
Scoring just 95 points against the Orlando Magic was a huge disappointment for the Atlanta Hawks, who once again got exposed on the defensive end. It’s no secret that Trae Young is a defensive liability, Cole Anthony came off the bench for Orlando and with a couple of others went at Young relentlessly which just added to the frustration of the Hawks star. I hope I am not a prisoner of the moment, but I was really impressed by what the Heat showed me on Wednesday. Apart from Young, Atlanta is lacking the necessary experience in big moments. The Heat have already been in situations like this before, so even though they are on the road here I give them a slight edge. Back Miami.
Check out our Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Predictions
Tyler Herro to Score 25+ Points (-154)
The hero of Miami’s win on Wednesday was, you guessed it, Tyler Herro. The experienced shooting guard went off against Chicago and scored 38 points on 13-for-19 from the field, while also making 3 of 7 three point attempts. It was his 5th game of 30+ points over his last 10 outings, and the 7th time he cleared this line while averaging 28.3 points on almost 58% efficiency from the field. These type of numbers exude confidence for whoever is backing Herro to again have a solid game against Atlanta on Friday, something he’s already done a couple of times this season. In the 4 meetings he averaged 24.8 points per game and has cleared this line twice, with his highest point total of 36 points coming in the final meeting between the two teams back in late March. With the aforementioned Young being a liability on defense, it is extremely hard for the Hawks to hide him on defense and I expect Herro to take full advantage of that and go at him whenever he gets the opportunity here. Herro has scored at least 20 points in 17 of 20 games, that kind of consistency gives he me hope he can up it to 25 and carry Miami into the postseason.
Trae Young to Record 10+ Assists (-215)
As bad as Young is on the defensive end, he is able to make up for it while carrying the Hawks defense. He led all players in assists, finishing the year averaging 11.6 per game which is quite impressive considering only one other player finished in double digits and the 3rd ranked on the list averaged 2.4 assists per game less. Part of the reason why Atlanta got destroyed by 25 points in their first play-in game against Orlando was the lack of play making by Young who had just 6 assists. That game ended a run of 4 consecutive games with double-digit assists, so I am hopeful he returns to form against Miami on Friday. Similarly to Herro, Young’ consistency dishing the ball has been well noted this season. In his final 20 games of the regular season he dished out at least 10 assists 15 times, so I’m quite happy to get -215 odds for a bet that cashes that often. It’s worth noting that the Miami Heat also allow the 3rd most assists to opposing point guards this season, the last time Young faced them he finished with 12. Over the last 5 meetings this bet has failed to cash only once, so let’s give Young the benefit of the doubt here and back him to do well.
Dyson Daniels to Record 6+ Rebounds (-310)
Other than Young, I’d argue the only bright spot this entire season for Atlanta has been the play of Dyson Daniels. Starting alongside Young in the backcourt has increased Daniels’ defensive responsibilities by quite a lot as he has to guard the best opposing wing on most nights with his 6-foot-7 frame. He has posted career highs in most statistical categories in his first year with the Hawks, since coming over from New Orleans. On the rebounding side of things he capped off the year averaging 5.9 rebounds per game, but over his last 10 games that number has gone up to 7.2 per game. He lifted his game to a whole new level vs Orlando by grabbing 12 boards, clearing this line for the 15th time in 20 games. In 3 meetings against Miami he averaged 8 rebounds per game, so it’s quite clear he likes this match-up. Regardless of how this game ends, Daniels is in for a big payday in the offseason, that too will be a motivating factor for him to do well here. I’ll back him to have an easy 6 rebounds.
