Filip Tomic
Sunday brings us an exciting Game 1 between the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers in their 1st Round match-up. I’m hoping to build on Friday’s +495 odds Same Game Parlay Winner, for Sunday’s game I’ve prepared a +316 odds bet. Get predictions on the side and total for NBA Playoffs games on our NBA Picks page, but now let’s dive into my Heat vs Cavaliers bet!
Over 214.5 Total Points (-110)
Darius Garland to Record 6+ Assists (-205)
Tyler Herro 3+ Made threes (-106)
Same Game Parlay odds: +316
Over 214.5 (-110)
To start off the Parlay I have this game going over the projected total. I get that the tempo of games usually goes down a bit in the postseason, but this number seems a bit too low for my liking. The two teams combined for 235, 232 and 219 points in the 3 regular season meetings this year, with an average of 28.3 threes per game scored. Only the Milwaukee Bucks shot the three-ball more efficiently than the Cavaliers did during the regular season, while the Heat finished 12th overall. Most of the Cavs offense revolves around knocking down the long ball, they make 15.9 per game which is 2nd highest behind the defending champions Celtics. So why would they dramatically change their style of play entering the postseason? Miami will be happy to respond, they ranked 12th in threes per game and in percentage during the regular season, we just saw them knock down 16 of them in the win over Atlanta in the play-in game. I’m backing the over with confidence in this game.
Darius Garland to Record 6+ Assists (-205)
Game 1 of the postseason will give us a good idea how far the Cavaliers can go this year. One of the players they will rely on the most to get past the Heat will certainly be Darius Garland. This regular season we witnessed a maturation process by the talented point guard, as he elevated his scoring as well as distributing game to a whole new level. He finished the year 12th best in assists per game, dishing out 6.7 per game. Having a week off before this game will certainly benefit him as he goes up against the physically and mentally drained Heat who had to play two extra play-in games to get here. Garland impressed last year in the 2nd Round loss to Boston, clearing this line in the final 3 games of the series and I expect him to pick up right where he left off. In two regular season games vs Miami he averaged 7.5 assists per game, that’s exactly the number he averaged over his final 8 games of the regular season. Count on Garland’s playmaking to make a difference here.
Tyler Herro 3+ Made threes (-106)
Back-to-back 30+ point games by Tyler Herro in the play-in tournament carried Miami on the road against the Bulls and Hawks as they secured the 8th seed. Herro cleared this line in both of those games, shooting 43% vs Chicago first and backed it up with a 5-for-10 effort vs Atlanta on Friday. He’s been on a hot shooting streak for a while now, in the month of April he averaged 44.4% of makes which is a significant jump from the 36.7% he averaged the month before. His efficiency has now gone up for two months in a row, which is very encouraging for a Miami Heat team that’s been desperate for someone to step up in what has been an otherwise disappointing season for them. Against the best team in the East, Herro has put together a couple of solid performances for Miami scoring 22 and 34 points. He cleared this line in both of those games, so the Cavaliers defense hasn’t exactly been able to figure him out yet. He’s shot the three-ball at 41.7% against them in the last 10 meetings, with nothing to lose in the series opener we can only hope his hand stays as hot as it’s been during the play-in tournament.
