Ricky Dimon
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Christmas Eve generally presents one of the lightest sports schedules of the entire year. However, this time around it falls on a Saturday and that means there is plenty of football to be played. In addition to an 11-game NFL slate, the Hawaii Bowl is taking place and features Middle Tennessee going up against San Diego State. Congratulations to the Blue Raiders and Aztecs for playing their postseason festivities under the Hawaiian sun and avoiding the arctic blast that is plaguing the continental United States.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to made for Saturday’s Hawaii Bowl.
Hawaii Bowl point-spread prediction: San Diego State -6.5 (-110)
Middle Tennessee may have the most notable win of the season between these programs, as it prevailed at Miami (FL). Of course, the Hurricanes turned out to be a disappointing football team at best. There is no reason to overreact to such a result, but the oddsmakers seemed to do just that throughout the remainder of the season. Saturday’s Hawaii Bowl spread doesn’t seem to be too far off the mark, but the Blue Raiders still probably aren’t getting enough points. They have covered in just 2 of their last 8 games and 3 during this stretch were double-digit losses to the bowl-eligible opponents they faced (UTSA, UAB and Western Kentucky). In fact, in those games Middle Tennessee did not even come within single-digits of covering. San Diego State enjoyed much more success against bowl-eligible teams. It won outright as an underdog against Toledo and San Jose State while covering against Fresno State as an underdog. Utah, Boise State and Air Force proved to be too tough, but those teams are much better than MTSU. Let’s go with SDSU and give the points.
Hawaii Bowl over/under prediction: Under 49 (-110)
This is an intriguing matchup that features a stark contrast in styles. Middle Tennessee State runs an up-tempo, fast-moving offense whereas San Diego State employs a ground-and-pound, run-heavy attack. The Blue Raiders rank 21st in pass-play percentage, 12th in seconds per play and 12th in plays per game. Will that be able to offset the Aztecs’ slower metrics (104th in pass-play percentage, 126th in seconds per play and 126th in plays per game)? Given that SDSU has showcased a superior defense against a more difficult strength of schedule, don’t be surprised if the Aztecs are the ones who control the pace of this game. If the clock keeps moving, going over 49 is a tough task. In recent weeks both of these offenses have failed to finish drives, and if they have to settle for field goals the under will probably hit. Per CFBStats, each program ranks in the top 5 in opponents’ red-zone scoring percentage.
Hawaii Bowl best prop bet: Chase Cunningham, QB, Middle Tennessee over 227.5 passing yards (-115)
Cunningham has exceeded this 227.5 number in 4 of the last 5 games. In the last 2 he has thrown for 448 yards and 279 yards while attempting 54 and 42 passes. Middle Tennessee does not have much of a ground game, so Cunningham will likely have a boatload of attempts in the bowl game – especially because San Diego State is allowing just 3.8 yards per rush. There is no reason to think that the Blue Raiders will be able to move the ball on the ground. As both the spread and our ATS pick suggest, MTSU will likely be playing from behind. That gives Cunningham all the more reason to air it out, which should lead to a whole host of passing yards.
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
