The summer hard-court swing begins this week, marking the buildup to the fourth and final Grand Slam of the tennis season – the U.S. Open. Atlanta is getting things started and boasts plenty of big names in the field such as Taylor Fritz, John Isner, Gael Monfils and Wimbledon breakout star Chris Eubanks. However, the biggest and best tournament on the schedule is Hamburg. The clay-court ATP 500 event is led in the betting by Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev.
Here are the odds and my picks for this week’s festivities in Hamburg and Atlanta.
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ATP Hamburg European Open odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Andrey Rublev +360
Casper Ruud +390
Alexander Zverev +480
Lorenzo Musetti +700
Francisco Cerundolo +800
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +1700
Tomas Martin Etcheverry +1900
Pedro Cachin +2200
Miomir Kecmanovic +2300
Emil Ruusuvuori +2300
ATP Hamburg 3-star best bet: Andrey Rublev (+360)
Rublev is coming off a title this past week in Bastad, where he destroyed Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals and beat Ruud in straight sets in the final. His clay-court swing had already been stellar, highlighted by the biggest title of his career at the Monte-Carlo Masters. Now he moves to the ATP 500 level, at which he has 5 tournaments – including Hamburg in 2020. Even as the favorite, Rublev has good value at +360 odds.
ATP Hamburg 2-star best bet: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+1800)
Davidovich Fokina has to face Gstaad champion Pedro Cachin in the Hamburg opening round, but Cachin has to be fatigued both mentally and physically following his efforts this past week. ADF otherwise has a favorable draw, as he is in the half opposite from Rublev and also in a quarter away from Ruud.
ATP Hamburg 1-star best bet: Lorenzo Musetti (+700)
Odds of +700 aren’t great, which is why I’m sprinkling only a 1-star play on Musetti (Davidovich Fokina, for example, has much better value at +1800). Still, I can’t entirely bypass the Italian. After all, he is the defending champion in Hamburg – where he defeated both Davidovich Fokina and Carlos Alcaraz on his way to the title in 2022. Musetti remains in fine form, with a recent fourth-round performance at Roland Garros and a semifinal showing last week in Bastad.
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ATP Atlanta Open odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Taylor Fritz +340
Alex de Minaur +500
Chris Eubanks +550
John Isner +1400
Dan Evans +1600
Ugo Humber +1600
Brandon Nakashima +1800
Kei Nishikori +2100
Thanasi Kokkinakis +2100
Jordan Thompson +2300
Ben Shelton +2400
J.J. Wolf +2400
ATP Atlanta Open 3-star best bet: Alex de Minaur (+500)
De Minaur is on an 8-match winning streak in Atlanta, having lifted the trophy in each of his last two trips to this tournament (2019 and 2022). He is 9-1 lifetime and his only loss has come to 6-time champion John Isner (2018 second round). The second-seeded Australian may have a tough opening match on his hands against either Thanasi Kokkinakis or Gael Monfils, but his draw is otherwise favorable. De Minaur has a good chance to make it three in a row in Atlanta.
ATP Atlanta Open 2-star best bet: John Isner (+1400)
I can’t pass up Isner in Atlanta – especially not at +1400 odds. It is true that the 6’10’’ American is past his prime at 38 years old, but this is basically his home tournament and he has won it an amazing 6 times. Isner has also finished runner-up on 3 other occasions. For his career, the former University of Georgia standout is 37-6 lifetime in Atlanta. He just reached the Newport semifinals last week, too, so he is in decent enough form.
ATP Atlanta Open 1-star best bet: Ben Shelton (+2400)
Shelton grew up in Atlanta and earned his first ATP match victory at this event last summer (before losing to Isner in a third-set tiebreaker). It wouldn’t be a huge shock if his first ATP title comes in the same location one year later. Shelton made a run to the Australian Open quarterfinals and his game works perfectly in quick conditions on outdoor hard courts.
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