Happy Christmas, Pickswise Nation! We kickstart our festive tripleheader of Christmas Day games at Hard Rock Stadium as the Miami Dolphins host the Green Bay Packers. After the Jets lost on Thursday night, Miami knows that a victory here will go a heck of a long way to securing a wild-card spot. As for the Packers, they are desperately trying to keep their postseason hopes alive and Aaron Rodgers will need to be at his best if Green Bay is to get the win. Who will bolster their chances of reaching the postseason? Our expert has their picks, predictions and best bets for this Packers vs Dolphins matchup.
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NFL Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins expert predictions
The Dolphins have stuttered somewhat in recent weeks, losing to the Chargers and Bills, and suddenly they are fighting hard to maintain hold of their spot in the postseason. As for the Packers, they seem to have righted the ship in recent weeks after success in 3 of their last 5 games. Aaron Rodgers is building a decent rapport with his young group of receivers, while the run game is also operating well. With the pressure on Miami, will Tua Tagovailoa rise to the occasion?
Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Packers +3.5, Dolphins -3.5
Total Points Over/Under: 50 points
Money Line Odds: Packers +155, Dolphins -180
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Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Packers and Dolphins.
Packers vs Dolphins point spread pick: Packers +3.5 (-115)
What a rollercoaster ride it’s been for both of these teams this season. Let’s start with the Dolphins, who looked like the best team in the NFL through the first 12 weeks, but have since lost 3 games and have come crashing back down to Earth with inconsistent performances on both sides of the ball. The Packers looked like a dead stick after 12 weeks, but 2 straight wins and a relatively soft NFC underbelly have kept Green Bay’s slim playoff hopes alive. Aaron Rodgers is also starting to play like the 2-time MVP he is, with the Packers offense trending up. Since Week 10, Green Bay’s scoring unit is 3rd in DVOA and rookie WR Christian Watson has finally found his groove. Rodgers’ thumb looked healthier after their bye week in Monday’s win over the Rams and the ground attack continues to be dynamic.
We’ll see if the short week has any impact on both of those, however, this hasn’t been an easy stretch for the Dolphins of late despite two extra days of rest. Miami is finally back in south Florida after a hiatus in California and the snowy abyss of Buffalo. Their offense continues to be one of the best in the NFL according to analytics, but their defense is trending down, especially the secondary, which is 26th in pass DVOA. Injuries and inefficiencies continue to plague the entire defense, and I just think they are catching this Packers offense at a really bad time when they are trending up. If Tua regains his mid-season form it could absolutely wreck this handicap, but I trust the more veteran team with a more veteran QB and coach to keep this within the number.
Be sure to check out our full Packers vs Dolphins predictions
Packers vs Dolphins Over/Under totals pick: Over 50 (-110)
This number steamed up hard from the lookahead total of 46.5 last week, which makes perfect sense if you consider what we saw last from both offenses. Tua regained his form a bit and showed some of the flashes which made him an MVP candidate earlier this season. The only reason why this isn’t rated higher than a 1-star play is once it pushed through the secondary key total of 47 it lost a bit of value, but I can still see this being a high-scoring game. Another factor holding me back from making this a stronger play is Green Bay’s glacial pace. The Packers have the 2nd slowest situation-neutral pace of any team in the NFL, which means they don’t push tempo unless they are forced to. The Dolphins like to play a little faster, ranked 10th in that category, but with Green Bay’s running game being the more prominent unit, I can see the tempo skewing a bit on the slower side. All of those factors make me feel a little less bullish about this over, but the personnel screams points.
Miami’s secondary has been absolutely torched when managing up in class this season, like last week against Josh Allen and the Bills. They’ve also really struggled to defend RBs and TEs in the passing game, so expect big games from Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan. The left side of the Packers OL (David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins) continues to miss time with various ailments. If one or both are up this week, then that’s obviously a positive thing for the Packers offense and the hopes of this game going over the relatively high total.
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