Things can’t get any worse for either of these teams. Green Bay fell to the Bills last week for its third consecutive loss, while the Lions came up short against the Dolphins in another one possession defeat. This week presents a good opportunity for the Packers to get back on track after having lost to the Jets, Commanders and Bills in consecutive weeks, but it remains to be seen if Aaron Rodgers and company can find their form.
Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this matchup, so let’s break it all down.
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NFL Week 9 Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions prediction
The Lions are 5-0 against the spread in their last five home games against the Packers, which is a surprising stat on its face. However, Detroit was likely a much bigger underdog in recent years considering the success of Green Bay from 2019-2021. Therefore, our expert thinks there’s value on a Packers team that has looked awful over the course of the last month against a Lions team that continues to find ways to lose games. Let’s get into our expert’s predictions for this matchup.
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions spread, odds & betting lines
Point Spread: Packers -3.5, Lions +3.5
Total Points Over/Under: 50 points
Money Line Odds: Packers -190, Lions +160
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Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Packers and Lions.
Packers vs Lions point spread pick: Packers -3.5 (-110)
Given just how bad Green Bay has looked this season and how everyone is dismissing Aaron Rodgers as being washed up and ineffective, it would seem that this game is an easy one to pick. Dan Campbell has his team eating kneecaps, the rushing tandem of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift has been strong, and their receiving corps is slowly working its way back to full health. The Lions are so confident in their offense that they traded tight end T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota in a move centered solely around money for next year. So why in the world are the Packers, losers of four straight, favored in this game? Most people are going to look at the Lions being 3.5-point home dogs as a gift, but Las Vegas doesn’t just hand out gifts. Yes, this season has been a bizarre one, but when everything is so clearly pointing toward taking the Lions, you have to wonder why the line is set as it is. The answer is in the defense.
Plain and simple, the Lions don’t have a defense. They rank 30th in DVOA against the run and dead last against the pass. You can’t sell out to stop the run because Aaron Rodgers will burn you, and you can’t drop back into heavy coverage all the time because Aaron Jones will lead the way. The Packers, on the other hand, have a good enough secondary to handle the coverage while also stacking the box at times. Detroit’s offense may have bounced back last week, but Miami’s defense has a softer underbelly than that of the Packers. Few people like to go against the grain, especially when the ATS data stands out so strongly, but sometimes you have to dare to be different.
Be sure to check out our full Packers vs Lions predictions
Packers vs Lions Over/Under totals pick: Over 50 (-110)
The 50-point game total is the second-highest for the week, and while both teams are capable of running the ball effectively, Las Vegas is telling us this NFC North rivalry is primed to be a bit of a track meet. The over is just 3-5 in Packers games this season, but for the defensively-challenged Lions, it is 5-2. We already know the Lions love to run the ball, but when their defense struggles, they can air it out with the best of them. The question we need to ask ourselves is whether or not Aaron Rodgers is going to lean on his running backs, or will he look to steal the spotlight and sail the ball downfield whenever he gets the chance?
Rodgers is not happy with the results from this team and doesn’t want to go down like that. He got Aaron Jones more involved in the passing attack with 15 targets over the last two games, and he challenged his young receiving corps to stand up and make their mark. Both Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure responded well. Robert Tonyan is getting more involved, and Rodgers should also have Allen Lazard, his top receiver, back this week. Against the Lions, they should put up some points.
On the Lions side, if you like revenge-game narratives, then look no further than Jamaal Williams against a defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the run. But Detroit is going to have to throw the ball as well if they are going to keep this game close. Expect plenty of shots downfield and a whole lot of scoring from both sides.
Get all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and NFL Best Bets from the rest of the Week 9 action.
Be sure to also check some of our other NFL Predictions articles for Week 9 below.
- Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots predictions
- Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets predictions
- Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
- Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions
- Los Angeles Chargers vs Atlanta Falcons predictions
- Miami Dolphins vs Chicago Bears predictions
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