Best Bet – Packers to make the playoffs (-125)
Worst Bet – Packers to win Super Bowl (+1800)
The Green Bay Packers are coming off an underachieving year where they finished with a 6-9-1 record. As disappointing as it was for the Packers to not be in the playoffs again, it might end up being the best thing that could’ve happened to the team. Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy had issues the last couple of years, and the poor season finally resulted in the firing of McCarthy.
In comes Matt LaFleur with a new system and he has made it clear that although Rodgers will have some input, they will be running the system he is putting in place. Randall Cobb is gone, having left for the Cowboys in free agency, but there are still plenty of weapons for Rodgers to throw to.
On the defensive side is where there are some questions. Blake Martinez is the leader of the defense and has always been strong, even when the rest of the unit has struggled. Jaire Alexander is the top cornerback on the team and after a strong rookie season, the expectation is that he will be even better in 2019. As for the defensive line, the Packers drafted Rashan Gary out of Michigan in the first round and the hope is that he will be an impact player right away.
Rodgers is getting up there in age, and although he still has at least a few years left in the league, he doesn’t have forever and the Packers’ Super Bowl window could be closing soon. That puts even more pressure on LaFleur, Rodgers and the rest of the Packers to have success this season.
Packers Win Total: O/U 9.5 Wins
Oddsmakers have set the Packers’ win total at 9.5 and I think that is just a smidge too high. The NFC North and the NFC in general are both going to be very competitive this year. The Packers, Vikings, Bears and maybe even the Lions all should be competitive.
The Packers also have a tough out of conference schedule, having to play against the Chiefs and the Eagles, but at least they get the Eagles game at home. If this team was playing in a different conference they have the talent on the team to win 11 or 12 games, but I think that schedule could hold them back.
I see them finishing right at nine wins, which mean the under is the play. If this total does move down to nine, this is a bet I would stay away from altogether. If it moves up to ten, the under might be one of the best bets in all the league, as I simply don’t see them winning 11 games.
Odds To Make The Playoffs: Yes -125, No -105
Even though I only expect the Packers to win nine games, I think that will be enough for them to squeak into the playoffs, and this is a confident play.
Last season in the NFC you only had to win nine games to get in, and I think there is a chance two teams this year could make it in with nine wins.With Aaron Rodgers under center the Packers are never out of it, and I have a feeling he could steal a couple of wins with late-game heroics.
I also don’t think Rodgers is going to have as much pressure on him with what should be an improved defense. He won’t have to feel like he needs to be the hero every week, something that was an issue all of last year.
Something that also shouldn’t be overlooked is the presence of LaFleur. I would expect Rodgers to stay on script a little more this season and not call plays in spite of his coach’s wishes like he did last year with McCarthy in charge. Rodgers wasn’t too subtle about his dislike for McCarthy’s offense down the stretch, and his relationship with LaFleur should be much better.
With an improved partnership between the coach and quarterback and better defense, they will be in the playoffs, and this is a very confident pick.
Odds to win the NFC North +190
There could be some good value here sitting at +190, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in them the division just because of how tough it is. This is a division where the Packers, Bears or Vikings could win it and it will probably all come down to how well they do in the non-division games because in the division it’s going to be a bloodbath.
This isn’t a bet I will be placing at the moment, but will keep an eye on these odds during the season.
Odds to win NFC Championship +950
The Packers currently sit with the fifth-best odds to win the NFC behind the Rams, Saints, Bears, and Eagles. In the playoffs a lot of it comes down to defense, but a lot also comes down to who you have under center.
In the NFC there are a lot of really good quarterbacks but in the playoffs I would take Rodgers over almost anyone, and so as long as they get there I think they have a nice shot to make a run.
+950 is also really appealing because it would be a very nice payout in your pocket. If you are the type to only bet one team to win the NFC I would stay away from the Packers because I don’t think they are the best choice.
However, if you like to bet on multiple teams to have a better shot, the Packers are a team that you really need to take a close look at and include on your bet slip.
Odds to win Super Bowl +1800
My feelings on this Super Bowl bet are very similar to the NFC Championship one. They have Rodgers on their team so as long as he stays healthy, they are always going to have a chance.
I don’t think they are going to get it done, but I think at +1800 there is good value there if they are a team that you want to include on your bet slip, along with a few other squads that you think can get the job done.
