Golf picks: WGC-Dell Match Play predictions & best bets from Diane Knox Balas

Once again, Scottie Scheffler is going to be the name on everyone’s lips – and betting slips – this week as the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play hits Austin, Texas for the final time. The PGA Tour announced that this will be the last WGC — and therefore the last Match Play event — on the schedule for the foreseeable future, which is a real shame.

I love this tournament; it’s a refreshing break from the norm and shows a different side to some of the players. Also, since I don’t participate in March Madness it’s a chance for me to fill out a bracket and hope it doesn’t go bust in the first few days!

Fresh off his victory at The Players, Scheffler is back to defend his title at Austin Country Club — where last year he defeated Match Play master Kevin Kisner 4&3 in the final . In 2021 Scheffler also made it all the way to the final before being pipped to the post by Billy Horschel. 

Here’s the format: the 64 players are broken down into 16 groups of 4, and the group stages of round-robin play run from Wednesday until Friday. The winner of a match receives 1 point, zero points to the loser and half a point each if the match ends up in a tie.

At the end of play on Friday, the 16 players with the most points from each group will advance to the single elimination matches on Saturday morning. The quarterfinals are held on Saturday afternoon, with the semifinals on Sunday morning and the championship match on Sunday afternoon. The consolation match for 3rd place will also be played on Sunday afternoon.

It’s definitely worth looking at match-play records of individuals this week, including Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup, and often stats can be taken with a pinch of salt. Having said that, strong putting is always going to be vital in these pressure-packed matches.

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Austin Country Club: What you need to know

Austin Country Club is a par 72 and measures just over 7,100 yards. We see another Pete Dye design this week — like TPC Sawgrass — with firm, fast conditions and Bermuda greens. This is the seventh year the Match Play has been held here.

The course is really a tale of 2 distinct halves, with a hilly front n9 and the back 9 heading down to Lake Austin. It may look a little different, as an ice storm earlier this year damaged over 1,000 trees on the property.

We have seen a real mix of styles prevail at this venue, and last year’s final really demonstrated that. Scheffler, one of the longest hitters on the tour, was going head-to-head against short-game wizard Kevin Kisner — who won this event in 2019.

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Knox’s Knockout Valspar Championship Picks

Max Homa (+2200 at Bet365)

How could I not pick Homa this week? He is on a tear right now, with 2 wins this season and an additional 6 top-20 finishes — including runner-up at the Genesis Invitational and T6 at The Players a few weeks ago. His best finish at the Match Play was T17 in 2021, but we all know Homa is a very different player now. Plus, we really saw him shine in his Presidents Cup debut last year — when he played a key role in Team USA’s victory. He has to come out of group that includes Kisner, Justin Suh and Hideki Matsuyama, but I think Homa’s Presidents Cup experience lit a fire in him when it comes to this format of play.

Tyrrell Hatton (+2800 at DraftKings)

Hatton has been playing some great golf lately, finishing T4 and 2nd in his last 2 starts. He is a fantastic putter with the fiery temperament that often goes hand-in-hand with match play, which showed last year when he finished in the top 10 here. Hatton is the highest ranked in his group of 4, and I would expect him to continue his strong play and be playing well into the weekend.

Cameron Young (+4000 at BetMGM)

As I said earlier, match play can be a bit of dart throw — but I like Young’s chances this week. He is the strongest in his group with Sepp Straka, Davis Thompson and Corey Conners, but I’m also factoring in a significant caddie change. Paul Tesori, who caddied for Webb Simpson for 12 years, is moving to Young’s bag of Young and this could be the thing to get him over the finish line. It worked for Scheffler and his looper, Ted Scott! Young has been losing strokes with the putter all year but turned it around at The Players, so hopefully that signifies a return to greatness and an overall improvement going forward. 

Min Woo Lee (+9000 at Unibet)

It’s harder to find a longshot in a match-play field of 64, but I can’t overlook Min Woo Lee at this price. Lee is emerging as a real character with a great overall game, as demonstrated at The Players a few weeks ago. He ended up finishing T6 at TPC Sawgrass, another Pete Dye design, but his putter was the hot club — gaining more than 2 strokes on the field on the greens. His sister, 2-time major winner Minjee Lee, told the media how much Min Woo loves being in the spotlight and “showing off” — and he has a great opportunity to do so this week in Austin.

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Prop Bets

Scottie Scheffler Top 4 Finish (+225 at DraftKings)

Jason Day Top 4 Finish (+750 at DraftKings)

Tyrrell Hatton Top European (+600 at Bet365)

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