Diane Knox Balas
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We saw 4 seasons over 4 days at Pebble Beach last week. Actually, four seasons in one day, and with the delay in play a Monday finish was inevitable. I was one week late with Justin Rose! I sensed his game had really turned around and picked him for the Farmers Insurance Open the week prior, but it was great to see him win at Pebble for his first victory since 2019 — and the first European to win the tournament.
That’s bad news for anyone in the field who wanted to attempt Monday qualification for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. In fact, 624 golfers signed up for the initial pre-qualifying tournaments, per @MondayQInfo on Twitter. That gives you an idea of the magnitude of the week we have ahead of us.
The WM Phoenix Open is always a massive highlight on the PGA Tour schedule, for players and fans alike. This year I can only imagine the atmosphere on Sunday as fans enjoy the final round before the Super Bowl begins a mere 26 miles away at State Farm Stadium in Glendale.
I went to the tournament last year and, wow, it’s hard to find the words to sum it up. It was on my bucket list and I’m glad I went to experience it, but it was ALOT! If your goal is to take in a little golf and party in the sunshine, it’s the place to be. If you want to seriously follow golfers play 18 holes, it’s pretty frustrating to navigate your way through the droves of revelers. However, it 100% lives up to its reputation as golf’s largest outdoor cocktail party and the atmosphere on the signature 16th hole is unlike anything I’ve ever seen before.
You may remember that last year both Sam Ryder and Carlos Ortiz made aces on the par-3 Stadium Hole, and the frenzied crowd celebrated by throwing their beer bottles and seltzer cans down to the green. Well, that won’t be happening this year as all bottles have been replaced with reusable cups. That makes sense when Waste Management is known for putting on the PGA Tour’s greenest golf tournament.
Anyway, aside from the sheer craziness of the 250,000 strong crowd and the Super Bowl being in town, this is a huge week. The WM Phoenix Open is one of 2023’s elevated events, meaning the purse is $20 million and the world’s best will be teeing it up. To be honest, as I sit and write this I feel as though we’re gearing up for a “major” week.
Eighteen of the OWGR top 20 are in the field, with Cam Smith absent (he went to LIV Golf) and Will Zalatoris, who has chosen not to play. Rory McIlroy is back on U.S. soil following his DP World Tour win in Dubai and defending champion Scottie Scheffler will be looking to put on a repeat performance. Plus, let’s not forget Jon Rahm, who lives closeby and would love to win this one after losing at Torrey Pines 2 weeks ago.
This tournament produces strong winners, with nine of the last 10 winners being either major or Players champions. Also, in the last 7 years only 2 winners have been decided without a playoff. To sum it up, we’re in for a treat this week.
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TPC Scottsdale: What you need to know
TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 and measures 7,261 yards. Year after year, premium ball-striking and excellent scrambling have won this event. The guys also need to have a bit of confidence about them — to perform in front of the biggest crowds the PGA Tour sees and to be able to take on several risk/rewards holes (watch out for the drivable par-4 17th!).
Although the climate of Arizona is very different to that of North Florida, there seems to be a lot of correlation between TPC Scottsdale and TPC Sawgrass. Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson and Phil Mickelson have won both.
The greens are some of the easiest on tour when it comes to holing putts, especially from the 10-foot range. Also, the rough is going to be down slightly this year. The big hitters will be looking to take advantage, cut some corners and be left with wedges into these greens.
The course gets really interesting from the par-5 15th onwards, making for some exciting finishes.
Knox’s Knockout Waste Management Phoenix Open picks
Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook
The sheer caliber of the field has pushed this 2-time WM Phoenix Open champ down the board a little, meaning he is at an attractive price. Matsuyama won here in ’16 and ’17; therefore he has to feel good stepping onto the property. Aside from the win, he has never missed a cut here and boasts an additional 5 top-15 finishes. He is also in good form after being right in the mix at the Farmers a few weeks ago before finishing tied for 10th.
Tom Kim (+3000)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook
It’s pretty tricky not to pick Tom Kim every week, but his stellar rookie season puts him up the top of my list. Six top-11s, including a win in Vegas, have already shown that Kim is a serious contender on the PGA Tour. With such a strong field this week, I wanted to look down the odds board a little to find some value, and he is 7th this season tee-to-green and 4th in approach. The greens at TPC Scottsdale are historically some of the easiest to putt on, so I really see Kim continuing to rise.
Taylor Montgomery (+6000)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook
If you’re sick of me picking Taylor Montgomery, just skip this paragraph. He is in the field on a sponsor’s exemption this week on the heels of 8 top-15 finishes in 10 starts this season, which is really something. He has used to desert golf as he hails from Las Vegas and went to UNLV, plus he leads the tour in overall putting average — a stat that can win tournaments! In short, this guy is going to win soon and I want to make some money off it when it happens.
Sam Ryder (+25000)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook
I’m throwing Ryder into the mix for a number of reasons. First, last year his ace on 16 gave him a career moment he’ll never, ever forget. He is going to get a hero’s welcome when he steps up to the tee this time! Plus, he played so well at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago and almost got his debut win. Confidence has to be high, and I’m shocked to see him at 250/1. He is 4 for 4 in cuts made here, and his two top-10s this season have shown a real improvement in his game — particularly off the tee and on the greens.
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Waste Management Phoenix Open Prop Bets
Matthew Fitzpatrick top-5 (+750)
Available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
When I think of elite ball-strikers, Fitzpatrick is in the conversation. Plus, he finished in the top 10 here last year. He is coming of a missed cut last week at Pebble, but following a tough weather week I’m sure the Englishman is excited about playing in the desert again. I like last year’s U.S. Open champion to be in the mix come Sunday.
Sahith Theegala top-10 (+450)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Last year the WM Phoenix Open was the tournament that put Theegala on the map. He played his heart out, with all his family and friends in attendance, and stumbled at the finish line to end up in a tie for 3rd. Following a T4 at the Farmers, where he gained almost 2.5 strokes on the field in approach, he is back to a place where there has to be a sense of “unfinished business.” This is a nice price for another top 10.
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