Golf picks: Valspar Championship predictions & best bets from Diane Knox Balas

Scottie Scheffler is The Players champion. Also, I’m sure he feels fantastic cashing that winner’s check of $4.5 million, the largest tournament payout on the PGA Tour. I said last week that The Players is a tournament that anyone could win, and the diversity in the leaderboard demonstrated that. However, ultimately one of “golf’s top 3” came out on top, and Scheffler won his second designated event of 2023.

My picks of Jason Day and Collin Morikawa were in the mix for a while, but it sure was fun to watch Scottie excel around TPC Sawgrass and regain the World No. 1 spot.

This week, we move South down to the Tampa region for the Valspar Championship. Given its spot on the schedule, the field is pretty good with Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick and winner of the last two renditions, Sam Burns, all teeing it up at Innisbrook.

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Copperhead Course at Innisbrook: What you need to know

The Copperhead Course is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards. The danger is in the name with the “Snake Pit”, consisting of holes 16, 17 and 18, being one of the toughest closing stretches on the Tour.

The fairways are lined with trees, making this a real positional golf course with a premium on accuracy. The field will have to plot their way around these doglegs and take on some tough par-3s. Distance and accuracy percentages are both typically way below average for this tournament. This year, I’ve heard that the rough is really thick, making fairway accuracy even more important than usual.

The long iron game is going to have to be on point, along with putting on these Bermuda greens. Approach and scrambling are the stats to pay attention to this week, as well as a hot putter.

Knox’s Knockout Valspar Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook

I find it hard to comprehend that Fleetwood is still seeking his first win on the PGA Tour. He’s lifted a trophy in the last five months on the DP World Tour, however, winning in South Africa and adding another two top-5 finishes to his resume. On the PGA Tour, he finished within the top 20 at the Genesis, plus put on a great performance at The Players last week before struggling down the stretch and dunking one in the water on the 17th. He excelled in approach last week and is sitting 2nd in overall putting average for the season. Last year was his first appearance at this tournament, where he finished T16, and I’d like to think he’d build on that this year.

Denny McCarthy (+3300)

Available at BetMGM Sportsbook

Denny has a great track record here, having made the cut in his three appearances, highlighted by a T9 finish in 2019, where he gained 1.5 strokes on the greens. He’s known for being one of the best putters on Tour and sits 3rd in putts inside 10 feet, as well as leading in scrambling from the fringe. McCarthy’s had four top-15 finishes this season, including a T4 at Pebble Beach and a T13 last week at The Players, where he was 8th in accuracy and 13th off-the-tee. The debut win is a’coming!

David Lingmerth (+12500)

Available at BetMGM Sportsbook

I had David Lingmerth as one of my long-shot picks for last week and got very excited as he hung around the top 10 over the weekend, eventually finishing T6 at The Players. Having battled injury and resulting poor play, the Swede is back and has five top-10s this season on the PGA Tour. He’s a short hitter who will plot his way around the Copperhead Course and hit fairways, sitting 14th for the season in driving accuracy. He’s also steadily gained strokes in approach over the last four tournaments. Lingmerth hasn’t played here since 2018, however, and I think everyone can agree that he’s going through a career revitalization right now. I like that to continue this week.

Chad Ramey (+20000)

Available at BetMGM Sportsbook

If you weren’t familiar with Chad Ramey pre-Players, I bet you know his name now! Ramey put himself firmly in contention, and on the map, last week at TPC Sawgrass, shooting 64 in the opening round to take the early lead. He held on better than I thought he would, shooting 68 in the third round and eventually finishing T27 after a round of 76 on Sunday. He led the week in putting, gaining over ELEVEN strokes on the field, which is exceptional! He was accurate off the tee and within the top-10 scrambling, which will put him in good stead for this week. Increased confidence plus good form, and great odds, make Ramey a solid pick for the Valspar.

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Valspar Championship Prop Bets

Justin Rose top-5 (+600)

Available at Bet365 Sportsbook

2023, so far, has been some year for Justin Rose. After winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, then missing the next two cuts, he finished T6 at The Players last week and heads to the Valspar having gained strokes in approach over his last five events. He also gained 15% over the field average in driving accuracy last week. He has three top-10s at this tournament, including a T5 in 2018. It’ll be good to see him back in action this week, having last played here in 2021.

Akshay Bhatia top-20 (+360)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook

Bhatia finished runner-up in Puerto Rico a few weeks ago to earn Special Temporary Membership and actually made his Tour debut at the Valspar in 2019. Akshay’s also had two top-10 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 and sits 1st in approach shots in three different yardage categories for the season on the PGA Tour. He has good momentum heading into this event and I’ll take him to have another decent week.

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