Joe Champion
The Masters is just a week away, but before the year’s first Major begins, a big prize – and a spot in the Augusta National field – is up for grabs at the Texas Open. TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course has hosted this event since 2010, with the last five editions taking place on the eve of the Masters, offering competitors one final opportunity to book a ticket to the Augusta showdown.
While last week’s Houston Open represented the last chance to qualify by a top-50 place in the world rankings, the Texas Open differs because there is only one way to get in: by winning the tournament. Corey Conners Monday-qualified for this tournament in 2019 and then won it, sealing his place in the Masters field, while JJ Spaun (2022) and last year’s champion Akshay Bhatia also qualified for Augusta by winning in the Lone Star State.
Texas favorite Ludvig Aberg was a Masters runner-up last season, qualifying for the 2025 tournament with that effort, so he won’t be burdened by the dangling of the Augusta carrot. Instead, he will be keen to ensure he’s in tip-top form ahead of the trip to Georgia after a couple of underwhelming Florida starts following his victory at the Genesis Invitational. Let’s dive into my golf predictions for this week’s PGA event, which should be a great warmup for The Masters next week.
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Texas Open Golf picks and predictions
Texas Open best bet: Corey Conners (+1600)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
A graduate of Texas Tech University, Aberg will be keen to win this week, but he faces stiff competition from two-time winner Conners, who returns to TPC San Antonio in fine fettle. At just about any other venue, Aberg at 12-1 would make much more appeal than Conners at 16-1, but the Canadian is supremely comfortable at the Oaks, where he won for the first time when ranked 196th in the world before doubling up in 2023.
Conners will tee it up this week after finishing third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, sixth at the Players Championship and eighth at the Valspar Championship. He already had the ideal tee-to-green game to handle this tough layout, but Conners has also improved his putting, which has been his Achilles heel, and a continuation of that flat-stick form should see him contend for this title again.
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Texas Open predictions: Bud Cauley (+5500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Three more catch the eye at decent each-way prices, starting with Bud Cauley, who is chasing a Masters invite. Cauley was 18th at the Oaks on debut in 2012, then tenth in 2017, and he’s back in top form after spending a long while battling injuries sustained in a 2018 car crash and a resultant loss of form.
The Floridian was sixth at the Players, then fourth at the Valspar, where he was particularly brilliant with his irons. He’s making up for lost time and looks like a threat again in Texas.
Texas Open longshot pick: Lee Hodges (+7500)
Lee Hodges also looks worth a punt after a hugely encouraging 11th-place finish in Houston following a six-week injury layoff.
Hodges would’ve been disappointed to miss the Florida Swing, but he signed off with a 65 in Houston, and this week he returns to a course where he was sixth in 2023 despite an opening 74.
Texas Open longshot prediction: Justin Rose (+10000)
Odds available at bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Two-time Masters runner-up Justin Rose will be focused on another tilt at the Green Jacket, but the Englishman would not turn his nose up at the chance to win another PGA Tour event and, given how well he’s performed in Signature Events, he too looks overpriced.
Rose was third at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and eighth at Bay Hill, and there was no disgrace in missing the cut by a shot at Sawgrass. He makes his course debut this week but the quality of his all-round game makes him a potential winner.
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