Golf picks: Valero Texas Open predictions & best bets from Diane Knox Balas

Diane Knox Balas

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Diane Knox Balas loves golf (she’s Scottish, so of course she does) but let’s just say she’s much better at analyzing golf than playing! The same cannot be said for her brother, Russell Knox, who’s a 2-time winner on the PGA Tour and fueled Diane’s initial passion for the sport. A seasoned TV and radio host, Diane has given out 8 outright winners since joining the Pickswise team in April 2022. Her general rule is she has to have three stand-out reasons for each pick and spends her time studying stats, playing form and little nuggets of information from golfers’ lives on Tour. Diane lives in Jacksonville, Florida with her husband Garrett, son Greyson and two English Bulldogs Bowser & Barkley. You can follow her antics on Twitter @KnoxyDiane and Instagram @dianeknoxbalas. For Diane Knox Balas media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

@KnoxyDiane

TPC San Antonio: What you need to know

TPC San Antonio is a par 72 and measures just shy of 7,500 yards. It’s a Greg Norman design, and he brought in Sergio Garcia as a player consultant — but don’t expect that to be mentioned much this week due to their involvement with LIV Golf (which is holding a tournament in Orlando this week).

It’s a long course, within the top-10 longest courses on the tour, and the fairways are heavily lined with trees. The wind really picks up around here and provides the biggest defense, along with the firm conditions that a hot few months in San Antonio have brought.

This is a real “second-shot” golf course, on which a great long iron game is key. As such, I’m looking at approach and greens in reg stats, as well as excellent putting — which always pays dividends around here. I’m also taking solid off-the-tee stats to find the guys who will really give themselves the best chance to precisely hit their spot on the greens.

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Knox’s Knockout Valero Texas Open Picks

Rickie Fowler (+2000 at FanDuel)

We’re seeing a real turnaround in Fowler’s game, and he’s back to being one of the tournament favorites this week. He has finished within the top 20 in 4 of his last 5 starts and took down Jon Rahm in the opening group match in Austin last week. This is Fowler’s fourth time playing this tournament, and aside from a missed cut last year he has a pair of T17s behind him at TPC San Antonio. Strokes gained off the tee is a big one to watch this week, and although that’s still a slightly sporadic stat for Fowler, he has shown a real improvement this year — as well as on the greens.

Matt Kuchar (+3500 at DraftKings)

Last year’s runner-up will be looking to capitalize on some recent good form and stamp his ticket to the Masters this week. By recent good form, I’m overlooking some missed cuts and focusing on his two top 10s in ’23 and a nice run at the Match Play — tying Tiger Woods’ record for most wins in the event. The Valero has been a fixture on Kuchar’s playing schedule every year since 2012, and he’s finished within the top 10 four times. He will feel comfortable coming here and should be playing with a lot of confidence.

Patton Kizzire (+10000 at FanDuel)

I like Kizzire this week, who does run hot and cold but has been trending in the right direction, for the best part, in 2023. Coming off a T10 at the Valspar, Patton gained strokes in almost all areas and has steadily gained almost 4 strokes on the greens over his last three tournaments. He finished T9 here in 2021 and will be looking to make a last minute run to Augusta, which serves as excellent motivation for a guy who’s no doubt desperate to return.

Tyler Duncan (+12500 at Bet365)

I like this price for Tyler Duncan, who recently finished third at the Honda and also last week in Punta Cana, the alternate event on the Tour. His off-the-tee stats are solid, sitting at 27th off the tee, 21st in total driving (distance + accuracy) and 13th in driving accuracy. Having said all that, the putter has been the deciding factor for Duncan and you can really see the improvement in his stats, and finishes, due to his work on the greens. Hopefully some increased confidence after another top-3 finish will translate to a good display in the Valero. I’m also taking him at +1000 for a top-10 finish.

Valero Texas Open Prop Bets

Charley Hoffman Top 10 Finish (+1000 at DraftKings)

This is Hoffman’s tournament. He’s played it every year since 2006, has finished within the top-13 12 times and lifted the trophy in 2016. He also has 2 runner-up finishes, in 2019 and 2021. He missed the cut for the first time ever last year and even though he’s been having a pretty dismal season so far (5 missed cuts in 7 events) he turned it on at the WM Phoenix Open, an event he also loves, and finished T14. If he’s going to succeed anywhere, it will probably be here.

Akshay Bhatia Top 20 Finish (+450 at DraftKings)

Bhatia has a fantastic iron game, sitting 4th in greens in reg and 1st in proximity for the season so far. That approach stat is important around this course, and Bhatia is entering the tournament after a couple of strong performances — 2nd in Puerto Rico and then T24 last week in Punta Cana. He’s a fun player to watch!

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