Diane Knox Balas
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“Patty Ice” sure loves playoff season. On Sunday, Patrick Cantlay, last year’s FedExCup champion, became the first person to ever successfully defend their playoff victory from the year prior, taking home the trophy at the BMW Championship and moving himself up to No.2 in the FedExCup standings.
We made a bit of money on Adam Scott and ANOTHER top-5 finish – I had picked him for a top-10 at +450. What an end to the season for the Aussie, who entered the playoffs at No.77 and has made it all the way to the finale.
So the field is locked; the final 30 will be teeing it up at East Lake in Atlanta this week. There’s a lot that comes with making it all the way to the Tour Championship – exemption into three of the four majors, including the Masters, plus last place this week will earn $500,000. The eventual winner of the FedExCup will walk away with a whopping $18 million.
Things get a little bit complicated if you’re not familiar with this FedExCup Playoff format, and a staggered scoring system comes into effect based on the season-long points list.
Tour Championship early leaderboard
Before the first tee shots are even struck on Thursday, we already have a leaderboard. FedExCup leader through the BMW Championship, Scottie Scheffler, begins the tournament on -10. Last week’s winner, Patrick Cantlay, starts on Thursday on -8, Will Zalatoris on -7, Xander Schauffele is on the leaderboard at -6 and Sam Burns has a score of -5.
The rest of the field is as follows:
-4: Cam Smith, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im
-3: Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick
-2: Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Joaquin Neimann, Viktor Hovland
-1: Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Brian Harman
Even: K.H. Lee, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott, Aaron Wise
Before play even begins, Scottie Scheffler has a 10-stroke lead over 5 members of the field, and leads his closest competitor by 2 shots. But as we know in golf, deficits can be made up fairly quickly, and leaders can fall away in the blink of an eye.
East Lake Country Club: What you need to know
East Lake is no walk in the park, that’s for sure. It’s a par-70 that measures just shy of 7,350 yards, so it’s definitely not a short course. Plus, we only have two par 5s this week.
Distance off the tee is a bonus around here, the fairways are tricky to hit and ball-striking is key. Picking your place on the green is key to scoring on these Donald Ross greens, and approach play historically is an important stat to look at.
The thing is, however, we have the 30 best players from the season competing so they’re all playing good golf. In that sense, the stats go out the window a little. Take Scott Stallings for example. His season-long stats will NOT paint the picture of where his game, and his head, are at currently at after finishing runner-up last week at the BMW Championship and making to the Tour Championship for the first time in 12 years!
Having said that, experience around East Lake counts for a lot, and we obviously have to take the starting scores into consideration.
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Knox’s Knockout TOUR Championship picks
Xander Schauffele (+750)
Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Xander loves East Lake. Need proof? Just look back at his past performances here. In 2020, he shot -15 for the week and shot the lowest score without the handicap system. He finished T2 in the end, but if it had been a normal stroke play event without the staggered scoring, he’d have won by 3 shots. He also finished runner-up here in 2019, and won the Tour Championship in 2017 – however that was before the handicap system came into play, and Justin Thomas was the overall winner of the FedExCup. Anyway, safe to say there’s something about this course that really suits Schauffele’s game. Combine that with the season he’s had (three wins and six top-10s), plus his starting score of -6 and we have a nice pick for the winner.
Rory McIlroy (+1400)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Before the first of the three playoff events had even begun, I picked Rory to go on and lift the FedExCup. A missed cut (and an admission that he hadn’t hit a single ball in the run-up!) at the FedEx St Jude Championship left me feeling a little uneasy, but he played much better in Delaware last week. Rory begins the week on -4, six shots behind Scheffler, and will have to make up ground right away on Thursday. His closing three birdies moved him up to a tie for 8th at the BMW Championship, and gave him not only some extra FedExCup points, but some extra momentum in his quest for golf’s ultimate prize.
Cam Smith (+2800)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Cam Smith saga is an interesting one. First, as the playoffs got underway, rumors began circulating that The Open champion had signed with LIV Golf. Then, after finding himself in contention at the FedEx Championship, he was given a two-stroke penalty before the final round began for a rules violation the day prior. And THEN he announced his withdrawal from the BMW Championship, citing “hip discomfort”.
Now, I would never usually pick someone who was injured, but I am for a few reasons. 1) I don’t think the injury is all that serious and the WD was precautionary, at best; 2) I think he was pissed with how the rules violation was handled and 3) he’s going to LIV and is very motivated to go out in a blaze of glory, winning the FedExCup and the $18 million (I have heard from someone inside Cam’s camp that the LIV deal is done). Combine that with everything we love about the Aussie’s game, and he could be really dangerous this week.
TOUR Championship Prop Bets
Patrick Cantlay first round leader (+300)
Odds available at Unibet Sportsbook at time of publishing
Cantlay starts only two shots behind Scheffler on Thursday and after winning the BMW Championship, and last year’s FedExCup, he’s in prime position to repeat in 2022. Patrick has been playing better than Scottie of late, so I like these odds for him to overtake him before Thursday is over.
Adam Scott top-10 finish (+600)
Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing.
… because “why the hell not”! He’s finished top-5 in the other two playoff events, has been on an absolute heater, played a phenomenal bunker shot to get up and down for par and make his way to East Lake AND just made the International Presidents Cup team. May the good vibes and great play continue for Adam Scott.
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