Ian Wilkerson
It is now just a month until golf’s elite will assemble for The Masters in Augusta, and there is a little doubt that victory at this week’s Players Championship at Sawgrass in Florida would be a huge boost for anyone dreaming of donning the famous Green Jacket. The defection of many of the world’s biggest stars to LIV Golf means it is now a stretch to refer to this week’s Ponte Vedra gathering as the Fifth Major, but the Players Championship remains the marquee event on the PGA Tour and one every top player is desperate to add to their resume.
Typically, world number one Scottie Scheffler heads the market having won the last 2 editions, but his form has not been as red hot as in previous years, so there will be plenty who like their chances of success this week. It is now 6 years since the Players was repositioned to March rather than May in the PGA Tour calendar and these days Sawgrass can help the bigger hitters with its early-spring berth and the greens tend to be more receptive. With that in mind, let’s get into my expert predictions for The Players Championship, while you can also find out our golf picks for EVERY PGA Tour event this year.
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The Players Championship golf picks and predictions
The Players Championship best bet: Sepp Straka (+5000)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The sample size is admittedly small but it is worth noting that the 3 winners of The Players Championship who played the Arnold Palmer Invitational the previous week headed to Ponte Vedra in fine form. Scheffler finished 1st and 4th at Bay Hill the week before his success while Rory McIlroy was 6th in 2019. With that in mind, coming in hot looks a potential trend and that helps point to a strong performance from Sepp Straka this week.
The Austrian already knows what it is like to be in the winners’ circle this year as he claimed a 2-shot victory at January’s American Express and he has not rested on his laurels since. He was 7th at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 11th at the Cognizant Classic before posting a 5th spot at Bay Hill, finishing 4 shots behind Russell Henley despite starting his campaign with a dismal 77. Straka was tied for 9th at Sawgrass in 2022 and 16th last year so there is cause for encouragement that he can claim what would be the 4th and most prestigious PGA Tour triumph of his career.
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The Players Championship prediction: Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Ball-striking quality will be the key to success this week and, because of that, it would be a surprise if Hideki Matsuyama does not make his presence felt with the chance of gaining another Green Jacket just around the corner. The Japanese star won The Sentry at the start of the year and has been playing solidly since, finishing well with a 69 to claim a tie for 22nd at the Arnold Palmer.
Matsuyama has had 4 top-10 finishes at Sawgrass, including 5th in 2023 when he started with a 74, and 6th last year, so he should take plenty of confidence from the fact he has broken 70 in each of his last 6 rounds at the celebrated Florida track.
The Players Championship pick: Shane Lowry (+4500)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
Like Straka, Shane Lowry was another player who put in a strong Bay Hill performance, even though it was a tale of what might have been after he threw away the 36-hole lead with a Saturday 76. The Irishman displayed enough composure to finish 7th and there is a feeling that he has been knocking on the door recently after posting 9 top-20 finishes in his last 11 worldwide events since September’s Tour Championship. Lowry has a Players Championship best of 8th in 2021 and had a hole-in-one at the iconic 17th island hole the following year, so there are plenty of positive memories for the amiable former British Open champion to draw upon.
The Players Championship longshot pick: Daniel Berger (+6500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of of publishing.
Those looking for a hefty longshot should consider Daniel Berger, who will be hoping for a strong performance in his home state of Florida. Berger finished 2nd at last month’s Phoenix Open and in November’s RSM Classic, so there are signs he is coming back into his best form, while he battled back to a creditable 15th at Bay Hill last week after starting with a miserable 78. This is his first Sawgrass visit since he was 13th in 2022 when he got off to a great start with a 67 and he was 9th the previous year, so there is enough course form in the book to merit a small investment.
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