Diane Knox Balas
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The win had been building for Mackenzie Hughes, and he finally got his second PGA Tour victory last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. It was another good week for one of my picks, Taylor Montgomery, who’s now finished top-10 in his first two events since graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour (he bought a house with his winnings from the season-opener!) and we just missed out on our Scott Stallings top-10 bet after he shot a final round 73 and finished T13.
This week, it’s the bright lights of Sin City as the Shriners Children’s Open gets underway on Thursday at TPC Summerlin. Last year, Sungjae Im shot a 62 on Sunday to win by four strokes in his 100th start on tour. Funnily enough, his first win came in his 50th event! But fresh off the Presidents Cup, and in great form, Im looks to be one of the favorites this week.
We have some of the bigger names back in business this week, like Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa, but I’m definitely going to be looking down the board when making my picks.
Now, this tournament will always be special to me – and to Pickswise’s Jared Smith. I got the first big win of my golf betting career here in 2020 when Martin Laird romped his way to a 250/1 victory. Jared still tells me it’s the biggest bet he’s cashed, too! Maybe lightning will strike twice…
TPC Summerlin: What you need to know
The course this week is a par 71 measuring 7,255 yards. It’s a staple on the schedule and has some great characteristics – lots of water features, lush bent-grass greens and canyons.
The fairways are wide and generous, and the greens are big too. Since 2015, TPC Summerlin ranks in the top-10 of easiest courses on the PGA Tour, therefore expect low scoring again this week. In fact, 9 of the par 4s are 450 yards or less, and the three par 5s are pretty gettable for majority of the field.
The Vegas wind can pick up in the afternoon, and the greens will firm up. Plus, with the elevation, the ball will travel a bit further. Greens in regulation is an important stat to look at this week, along with overall strong play tee-to-green; Sungjae Im ranked top in both of those categories en route to his convincing win last year.
If guys miss the large greens, it’s tricky to get up and down, and TPC Summerlin ranks high in difficulty in around-the-green stats.
Knox’s Knockout Shriners Children’s Open picks
Patrick Cantlay (+750)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I know, these are really short odds, but it’s hard to leave Cantlay off the board this week. A strong tournament favorite after winning this event in 2017, finishing runner-up in ’18 & ’19, and T8 in 2020. Combine that with the fact he’s in great form and he’s difficult to overlook.
Taylor Montgomery (+4000)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
After picking him for the first two events of the season, and finishing in the top-10 both times, there’s no way I’m coming off Taylor Montgomery this week. The guy graduated from UNLV and lives in Vegas! Plus, his odds are higher than they were last week for the Sanderson Farms Championship. His strong putting form continues – he was 5th on the greens last week – and is 2nd on the PGA Tour for the season so far. Montgomery is also 5th in strokes gained: total which is mighty impressive from a rookie. I’m going to take him for a top-5 at +600 also.
Adam Hadwin (+8000)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Last week, Mackenzie Hughes said his Presidents Cups snub was a huge motivating factor towards his win in Jackson. I think his fellow Canadian, Adam Hadwin, may draw the same sort of motivation this week. Hadwin has had some great finishes at TPC Summerlin, including T6 last year and T4 in 2019. Last season, he finished at No.63 in the FedExCup standings, and played some great stretches of golf. While he wasn’t a top choice for the International team, I’m sure that had been a goal of his and he was disappointed to miss out. Adam was very solid tee-to-green last season, and experience around this course should help him out.
Nick Taylor (+13000)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Right, I promised you a longshot after my 2020 Martin Laird win at 250/1, so I’m looking at the model of how he got it done. That model seems to play out year after year at TPC Summerlin – solid tee-to-green and approach stats, and you don’t have to be a phenomenal putter. Nick Taylor sits at No.8 tee-to-green this season, as well as 22nd in approach. Plus, he’s coming off a T6 at the Fortinet and a T19 last week. He’s no 250/1, but I’ll take him from the longshot section.
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Shriners Children’s Open Prop Bets
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
Russell Knox top-10 finish (+900)
In case you don’t know this, Russell is my brother. I may not list him as an official pick each week, but I always include him on my card – how can I not?! However, if I feel strong enough about his form and course history on a particular week, I’ll write him up here and this week he’s getting a mention. Russell loves this course, has finished 3rd here in the past and is playing some great golf right now, finishing top-25 in his last two starts. He’s completely switched up his putter, and putting stroke, and has seen a marked improvement already. His off-the-tee stats, which are usually a strength, have taken a dip but you better believe he’s doing something about that over the next few days!
Callum Tarren top-10 finish (+1100)
I made quite a bit of money on Callum Tarren prop bets last season, and I’d love that trend to continue! The Englishman finished just outside the top-10 last week at the Sanderson Farms, used his length off-the-tee to his advantage and hit 73% of his greens, which was very high for the course. It’s his first time playing this event, but I like his strong play to continue.
Matthew NeSmith top-20 finish (+300)
I’m going to throw this one in there too for the Shriners Children’s Open. NeSmith had a fantastic finish last week, carding nine birdies in his final round to jump him into a tie for 9th. Plus he’s finished T8, T14 and T18 in his three appearances here. Momentum plus a course he loves could equal easy money.
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