Diane Knox Balas
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A runaway Sunday round from Sepp Straka at the John Deere Classic had us on the edge of our seats before a double-bogey on the 18th hole derailed his chances of a historic 59. However, the Austrian had a long wait in the clubhouse before his win was declared — defeating Brendon Todd and Alex Smalley by 2 strokes.
My pick of Adam Schenk finished in a respectable fourth place and Denny McCarthy was 2 spots behind him.
This week, I am crying into my laptop as the PGA Tour descends on my motherland for the Genesis Scottish Open. It’s an entirely bittersweet week for me, and as much as I love to wake up with some “coffee golf” on TV and marvel at my beautiful country, I miss it terribly and wish I could be there — walking the links and taking in the 4 seasons in 1 day. I might not be saying that come Sunday as the East Lothian coast is being battered by wind and rain, but more on that later….
The Scottish Open kicks off a big fortnight of golf, as this PGA Tour and DP World Tour co-sanctioned event presenting us with a varied, hybrid field of golfers the week before The Open Championship. Eight of the OWGR top 10 are teeing it up (minus only Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith), and 75 DP World Tour players will join the PGA Tour’s elite. Plus the purse is up to $9 million this year, and the final 3 spots for The Open at Royal Liverpool are still up for grabs.
Last year, Xander Schauffele beat Kurt Kitayama by 1 stroke to win at 7-under. The scoring was high, but that’s the unpredictability of links golf. Three years prior, Bernd Wiesberger won at -22! Plus, with a pretty dismal looking weather forecast, we may be in for the same type of volatility. The first 3 times the Renaissance Club hosted the Scottish Open, the eventual champion was decided by a playoff. It should be noted that hose entering the week in good form with some recent strong performances behind them seem to fare well in this tournament.
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The Renaissance Club: What you need to know
It’s off to East Lothian for the Genesis Scottish Open. The Renaissance Club is a par 71, measuring 7,293 yards but the course will play a lot differently than that official number with the Scottish weather. It takes a lot of skill and creativity to navigate this raw, unpredictable terrain.
This is the fifth consecutive year the Renaissance Club has hosted the Scottish Open. Situated right beside the iconic Muirfield, the course is relatively new and the 1,000-acre estate was purchased by a consortium of American businessmen in 2005. A Jacksonville native, Jerry Sarvardi, led the purchase and recruited famed designer Tom Doak to get to work on this brand new 18-hole links course. The only issue was the land didn’t back up onto the coast, which is the trademark of links golf. So Sarvardi had to barter for a coveted strip of land to add to the course, which he didn’t get until 2011. Then, 3 new holes were built within the sand dunes on the coastline — completing the golf vision that the American group longed to create.
If you have played some of Scotland’s famed links courses, you may see a slight departure from that traditional, rustic style at the Renaissance Club. The rough is possibly the biggest difference, and is more penalizing off the fairways than the whispy fescue that we see at some of the other links venues. It’s pretty thick, and puts more of a premium on total driving off the tee, however the fairways are wide. Following some renovations in preparation for this year, some additional bunkers and fairway mounds have been added. Those dreaded pot bunkers are to be avoided at all costs!
Length off the tee could be an advantage this week, with some long par 4s, four reachable par 5s and a drivable par 4 — which is always fun to watch.
Looking at the greens, they are large and will run slow — as we would expect from a Scottish links course. The greens here are really undulated with some large run-off areas. Guys will have to pick their spots carefully, or make the most of those shaved-down areas to play the famous Scottish “bump n’run” shot.
Of course, as always with seaside golf, the wind can really pick up. It looks to be gusting 20 mph on Sunday, but if I know Scottish weather I’d say that number is on the conservative side (!!!!). There is also rain forecast every single day from here on out, which will really soften things up.
Knox’s Knockout Scottish Open picks
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200 at DraftKings)
I was going to save my Fleetwood pick for The Open next week, but I’m going all in for the Scottish Open at this price. The Englishman finished T4 here last year and is entering the week with some fine finishes under his belt — 3 top-5s in his last 6 starts. He also lost in a playoff here in 2020. Fleetwood hasn’t played since the Travelers, so I’m sure he flew back to British soil to take some time to recharge and fully prep for the next 2 weeks. He and links golf go together like fish and chips; his Open finishes of a T4 last year and runner-up in 2019 further prove that. Fleetwood is knocking on the door of victory and I’d love to see it happen this week. It would be pretty amusing if his first PGA Tour win came in Scotland, though!
Ludvig Aberg (+5000 at FanDuel)
Following another impressive finish in his extremely short PGA Tour career, Aberg is traveling from Illinois to Scotland on a sponsors exemption for the Scottish Open. The Swede is coming off a T4 finish at the John Deere and now has 3 top-25 finishes in his last 4 starts — quite incredible. I always like European players on links courses, and Aberg’s game is sitting in a great place, finely tuned and firing on all cylinders. Last week he was 3rd in strokes gained off the tee, 11th in greens in regulation and 11th in putting. Take these stats to Scotland and the rookie will be tough to beat.
Aaron Rai (+8000 at Unibet)
I’m throwing another Brit into my picks this week, as Rai is in stellar form. In his last 5 starts on the PGA Tour he has finished T12, cut, T3, T24 and T9, plus he is heading back to a course he has won on before (2020 Scottish Open) Rai is currently sixth in driving accuracy on the Tour, which will be big this week when avoiding the thick rough and fescue, and fourth in consecutive greens in regulation. He just missed the cut here last year and his stats were terrible, so he will be looking to throw out those bad memories and redeem himself in front of the Scottish crowds.
Ewen Ferguson (+25000 at FanDuel)
I have to give you a fellow Scot this week in my picks and Ferguson is taking top honors for that distinction. Robert McIntyre and Richie Ramsay are coming off good weeks at the Danish Open, but Ferguson will be flying a little further under the radar this week and these odds are huge. He has posted 3 top-4 finishes this season and 1 came just a few weeks ago in the British Masters, where he gained almost 2 strokes on the field on the greens. He finished T30 here in 2020 and doesn’t have fantastic tournament history, but you can bet he has been playing the Renaissance Club in preparation for his home Open and will be looking to put on a display for the local fans.
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Scottish Open prop bets
Min Woo Lee top-10 finish (+360 at DraftKings)
A past champion with a Scottish caddy and in great form? Maybe I should be taking Min Woo as an outright pick! He just finished T5 at the U.S. Open, T9 at the Travelers and then played in the British Masters and finished inside the top 15. Confidence is sky-high for the Aussie, who has won on this course in the past.
Rickie Fowler top American (+750 at Bet365)
Fowler loves links golf. In fact, he won the Scottish Open back in 2015 — albeit at a different course. He is coming off a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has been spotted practicing at nearby North Berwick Golf Club, one of his favorites. I should really be taking him to win the whole thing at +1800, but I like these odds for top American on the leaderboard.
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