Diane Knox Balas
Show Bio
The 2022/23 PGA Tour schedule began with the Fortinet Championship, and I got off to the best start possible as Max Homa got the job done at +1600 odds! Admittedly it happened in the most insane circumstances imaginable as Danny Willett completely collapsed, but a win is a win! The PGA Tour then took a week’s break for the Presidents Cup, and now resumes with the Sanderson Farms Championship in Jackson, Mississippi.
Sam Burns, fresh off his Team USA victory celebrations, travels from Charlotte to defend last year’s title — when he beat Cameron Young and Nick Watney by 1 stroke. Last year, Young was one of the Korn Ferry Tour graduates quickly making a name for himself. I expect to see some of the new recruits doing the same this year.
The field overall is relatively weak when it comes to star-power names, but that’s to be expected the week after the Presidents Cup and for some of the events in this fall section of the season.
Country Club of Jackson: What you need to know
The Country Club of Jackson is a par 72 and measures in at 7,461 yards. The course has hosted the tournament for the past nine years.
Looking at Burns’ winning stats from last year, strong iron play seemed to be key to his success. He led off-the-tee and tee-to-green, as well as greens in regulation — telling me to really look at elite ball-strikers this week. Burns finished 57th in strokes gained putting and lost almost 2 strokes on the field over the course of the week. However, in 2020 Sergio Garcia putted lights out here to get the win. One thing’s for sure: scoring will be low.
The Donald Ross greens are small, putting a further premium on excellent approach play — and they are fast. The fairways here are pretty wide, too, meaning the bigger hitters can really let it rip, especially with four par-5s on the scorecard, and the rough isn’t all that penal. The field will have to plot their way around a number of doglegs, however.
Having said that, distance hasn’t really been part of the winning recipe over the years, with much more of a premium on solid ball-striking and accuracy when hitting the greens.
Knox’s Knockout Sanderson Farms Championship picks
Taylor Montgomery (+3500 at DraftKings)
I picked this Korn Ferry Tour graduate to start the season well in Napa, and he certainly did with a 3rd-place finish. Montgomery finished 7th in the Korn Ferry Tour season-long points list, and should be feeling extra motivated after his hot start to his PGA Tour career. It’s hard to go on stats from one week alone, but his putter is hot as well as his strokes gained: total. He’s a big hitter who will have to hone in his approach a little, but he’s a name to look out for.
Davis Riley (+4500 at Bet365)
It’s only a matter of time before Riley rises further up the ranks, and the Mississippi native could get it done this week. He’ll have a huge amount of hometown support after a successful rookie season on the PGA Tour, which is maybe just what he needs after missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship 2 weeks ago.
Hayden Buckley (+13000 at DraftKings)
If we’re using (part of) the Burns model from last year and looking at extremely solid ball-strikers tee-to-green and off-the-tee, look no further than Hayden Buckley. Examining last season’s stats, he was 13th off-the-tee on the whole PGA Tour and sits at #1 in that category after the Fortinet Championship. He also finished T4 at this tournament last year. These are nice odds for a long shot this week.
We’ll have Golf picks and predictions for EVERY event in the 2022-23 PGA Tour season!
Sanderson Farms Championship prop bets
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Sahith Theegala top-5 finish (+500)
It’s going to be a birdie-fest this week, and Theegala sure knows how to make birdies. He finished T8 in this tournament last year, and will be a popular pick to win.
Denny McCarthy top-5 finish (+450)
I’m back on the Denny train for 2023! He’s still seeking his debut win on the PGA Tour, but there’s clearly something he loves about this course after finishing T18-T6-T17-T7 over the last 4 years. He is a fantastic putter who’s not one of the longest drivers of the ball, but he also knows how to strategize his way around a course like this.
Scott Stallings top-10 finish (+350)
Following an impressive end to last season, which saw him make it all the way to the Tour Championship, this course should suit Stallings’ game. He finished T6 here in 2020, won the event in 2012 — albeit at another course — and will be looking to continue his great form into the new season. Something is telling me not to leave him off my card this week…!
The Pickswise golf handicappers are on hand with expert Golf Picks and Golf Predictions as well as tournament previews and analysis throughout the PGA Tour, including all of the majors.
