Diane Knox Balas
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That Viktor Hovland win had been brewing for a while, and he pipped Denny McCarthy to the post in the Memorial playoff on Sunday. The next big one is the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club next week, but before that it’s across the northern border to Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open.
Rory McIlroy will be looking to win 3 in a row here; he won the 2019 and 2022 Canadian Open titles, while the ’20 and ’21 tournaments were canceled due to COVID. McIlroy is also coming off a T7 this past week at the Memorial and is using this tournament to fully prepare for the U.S. Open.
Some of the PGA Tour’s top Canadians are currently in great form, so the fans have a lot to be excited about as they root for a hometown heroes. No Canadian was won this tournament since 1954! Corey Conners and Mackenzie Hughes have already spent some time out the course over the past few weeks to prepare for their home Open and try to work out these green complexes (more on that later…).
With the course being new to practically the entire field, I’ll be weighting current form and good momentum heavier this week and really tracking the desirable stats for the course requirements.
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Oakdale Golf and Country Club: What you need to know
Next up in the RBC Canadian Open rotation of courses is Oakdale Golf and Country Club, a par 72 measuring 7,264 yards. Oakdale, a first-time host course, is the 37th course in the tournament’s 117-year history and sits 15 miles from downtown Toronto.
The course usually features a trio of 9-hole setups – Thompson, Homenuik and Knudson. This week the front 9 will be made up of 4 holes from the Thompson course and 5 from the Homenuik 9, and the back 9 will be the full Knudson course. The front half will play 400 yards longer than the back and significantly tougher, with plenty of birdie opportunities as the guys make their way back to the clubhouse.
Tree-lined, sloping fairways will mean accuracy off the tee will be important, but the course isn’t very long anyway so a lot of the big hitters can club down off the tees.
The main defense of the course is the small greens, and there is going to be a real premium on approaches this week. There is also a lot of green-side undulation, so it’s going to take a bit of practice to work out the spots to hit and how putts will break.
Knox’s Knockout RBC Canadian Open picks
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400 at DraftKings)
Next week Fitzpatrick is heading to the U.S. Open as defending champion. Plus, he is coming off a T9 finish last week at a tricky Memorial Tournament where he gained in strokes across the board. His putting stats right now are excellent and he is 17th on the tour in total strokes gained. The approach stat seemed to be the one letting him down in the earlier part of the season, but he has gained strokes with his irons in 5 of his last 6 events. Fitzpatrick won RBC’s other event on the schedule — the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head — earlier this year, so he is looking to do the double in 2023.
Adam Svensson (+6600 at BetMGM)
I feel compelled to take a Canadian this week, the obvious one being Conners at 16/1. However, in the quest for value I’m looking at Svensson at 66/1 (and I have another momentarily…)! I’ll be honest; I actually forgot Svensson was Canadian when I picked him, so this is an added bonus. When looking at approach stats, Svensson is having a solid season; he is top 10 from 200-250 yards. He is also 19th in putting, and with 1 win under his belt this season he will be looking to contend for another on home soil.
Nick Taylor (+7500 at FanDuel)
My second Canadian is Taylor at 75/1. These Canadian fans really rally behind their guys, and it means a lot to the players to have that support and be able to put on a performance to be proud of. Taylor’s season has been the definition of a roller-coaster ride, but 9 top-25 finishes is mighty impressive. The biggest highlight has been his runner-up effort at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but an additional 4 of those finishes have been top 10s. Taylor has gained strokes in approach in his last 4 starts, and he is sixth in putting average for the season. He is playing the best golf his career, just welcomed a baby girl to his family last month and skipped the Memorial (a $20 million designated event) last week. This could be a big week for the Canadian.
Grayson Murray (+25000 at PointsBet)
Yes, I’m giving out a 250/1 pick this week — but I’ll also be looking at some props (like +600 for a top-20 finish). Murray has been working hard on tuning up his game and reinventing himself to a degree. He won on the Korn Ferry Tour 2 weeks ago and last week was in contention before eventually finishing T3 and 1 shot shy of the playoff. Looking at his recent KFT stats, he has been hitting greens and making putts. He got in as a late alternate this week and his confidence has also been substantially boosted by recent performances. I’ll definitely been keeping an eye on Murray and rooting for him to take his form back to the PGA Tour.
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RBC Canadian Open prop bets
Carson Young top-20 finish (+500 at DraftKings)
I’ve been tracking Young’s trends and like him to do well again this week. He has finished within the top 21 in 4 of his last 6 starts and has gained strokes with approach shots on 5 of those occasions.
Adam Svensson top Canadian (+650 at DraftKings)
I detailed my reasons for picking Svensson as an outright this week at 66/1, but I love him as top Canadian at this price. Side note: Nick Taylor is also +650.
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