Joe Champion
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Almost a decade has passed since Rory McIlroy last won a Major championship but many will feel that the stars are aligning for the Northern Irishman as he prepares to tee off at the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. The Jack Nicklaus-designed Valhalla has hosted this tournament on 3 previous occasions – in 1996 and 2000 when Mark Brooks and Tiger Woods emerged triumphant from playoffs, then most significantly in 2014 when McIlroy edged out Phil Mickelson by a solitary shot. When McIlroy won his 4th Major in Kentucky aged just 25, it was unfathomable to think he would still be sat on the same number 10 years later. However, after a host of near-misses, the now-35-year-old will arrive at Valhalla as confident as he’s ever been following back-to-back PGA Tour victories.
The first success, alongside his great friend Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic, served as a small fillip ahead of the tougher tests to come but the second, a brilliant 5-shot win at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, will have made all his rivals sit up and take notice. McIlroy found top gear in spectacular fashion at Quail Hollow on Sunday, producing an 8-under-par run from the 8th hole to the 15th to completely blow Xander Schauffele’s title hopes to pieces. And now he returns to Valhalla, a course which he knows better than most and which suits his game down to the ground.
Valhalla is a brutal 7,609-yard par-71 with plenty of risk-reward holes. Given its length, this tournament seems likely to come down to a battle of long, straight drivers, although there is always hope for an outlier to putt their way into contention. McIlroy looked a great bet when he was +1200 last week but his Wells Fargo triumph had the oddsmakers running for cover. At a best-priced +700, it’s harder to justify backing someone who still has to prove he can get over the line in a Major after a decade of disappointment.
Majors or otherwise, Scottie Scheffler has no problems getting over the winning line as form figures of 1-1-2-1-1, including a second win at the Masters, illustrate. Scheffler has taken time off ahead of the birth of his first child and while Baby Scheffler reportedly entered the world over the weekend, that’s far from ideal preparation for a Major championship. He might just be good enough to overcome that handicap but he’s worth taking on and the market suggests that McIlroy is most likely to serve it up to him.
The Masters 2024 golf picks and predictions
Brooks Koepka to win PGA Championship (+1200)
Odds generally available at time of publishing.
In the city where the legendary Muhammad Ali was born, it’s Brooks Koepka who looks the best bet to win the PGA Championship as he bids to deliver another knockout blow in pursuit of a 6th Major title. Koepka has made this tournament his own in recent seasons, winning it in 2018 and 2019, finishing as a runner-up in 2021 and then regaining the Wanamaker Trophy with a brilliant display at Oak Hill a year ago, holding off Scheffler and Viktor Hovland in the process.
The 34-year-old Floridian went into the Masters in moderate form on the LIV Tour and duly finished 45th but he’s knuckled down since, finishing 9th at LIV Adelaide before winning the Singapore event. As a 5-time Major champion, Koepka’s ability to cope with the pressure of the biggest stages is unrivalled and his long-game, featuring an ideal blend of driving distance and accuracy, makes him a great fit for Valhalla.
Bryson DeChambeau to win PGA Championship (+2500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Jon Rahm is drifting out to betable odds – he’s been solid in his debut LIV season without winning an event – but Bryson DeChambeau is a more appealing option from the rebel circuit. DeChambeau finished 4th in last season’s PGA Championship before going on to win twice on the LIV Tour, then he started this season with results of 25-9-4-6-7 before finishing 6th at the Masters.
The 30-year-old, a US Open champion at Winged Foot in 2020, has underwhelmed in the 2 most recent LIV events but neither Adelaide or Singapore were ideal courses for his gung-ho style, which should be seen to much better use at Valhalla. DeChambeau also has several wins in states which border Kentucky, including on a Nicklaus design at the 2018 Memorial Tournament. He clearly relishes competing in this part of the United States.
Max Homa to win PGA Championship (+3300)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Max Homa’s underwhelming Majors record took a significant turn in the right direction at the Masters, where he finished 3rd behind Scheffler having looked a Green Jacket contender heading into the back 9, and there’s every chance he builds on that this week. Homa struggled the week after the Masters, finishing 55th at the Heritage, but there was a lot to like about his return to action at Quail Hollow, where he finished in a share of 8th place. The 33-year-old, a 6-time winner of regulation PGA Tour events, is becoming increasingly comfortable in Major arenas.
Tommy Fleetwood to win PGA Championship (+4000)
Odds generally available at time of publishing.
No Englishman has won the PGA Championship since Jim Barnes claimed the first 2 in 1916 and 1919 – when the tournament was a matchplay competition – but Tommy Fleetwood has a chance of emulating his compatriot over a century later. The popular player was a runner-up behind Koepka in the 2018 US Open at Erin Hills and he once again showcased his appetite for a long, difficult golf course when 3rd at the Masters last month. Fleetwood has been generally solid in all departments recently and he warmed up for another shot at Major glory by finishing 13th at the Wells Fargo.
Byeong Hun An to win PGA Championship (+7500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Byeong Hun An also impressed in Charlotte last week, firing a 5-under-par final round to finish 3rd behind McIlroy and Schauffele, and the long-driving Korean, who is enjoying a career resurgence since switching to the long putter, is a longshot worth keeping an eye on. An was 16th at the Masters and 4th at the Byron Nelson and it’s not impossible that he contends again this week.
