Joe Champion
Attention on the PGA Tour will soon turn to the Florida Swing but this week the lesser lights get the opportunity to shine as Vidanta Vallarta hosts the Mexico Open for the 4th straight year. Almost all of the PGA Tour’s elite have decided to swerve this week’s event with only 9 of last week’s Genesis Invitational competitors making the trip south of the border. The venue for this tournament since 2022, Vidanta Vallarta is a wide coastal track that has proven to be at the mercy of long drivers. Jon Rahm won the first edition of the event at the course and Tony Finau beat the Spaniard by 3 strokes in 2023. Let’s get into my expert predictions for the Mexico Open, while you can also find out our golf picks for EVERY PGA Tour event this year.
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Mexico Open golf picks and predictions
Mexico Open best bet: Akshay Bhatia (+1400)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
There is nobody of Rahm’s class in this year’s field but Akshay Bhatia could claim to be on a par with Finau at present — the Californian is only 4 places worse off in the world rankings with the potential to crack the top 20 at the very least this year.
The 23-year-old has emerged as one of the PGA Tour’s most reliable performers in coastal conditions. His sole Korn Ferry Tour win came in the Bahamas in 2022, he was 4th on his sole Mexico start the following year and he filled the same position behind Scottie Scheffler in the Hero World Challenge in December. Bhatia produced his best result of the season at the Genesis last week, finishing 9th. He is both long enough off the tee and a solid enough putter to justify being the betting favorite this week.
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Mexico Open prediction: Sam Stevens (+2700)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
This looks like a good chance for Sam Stevens to cash in on his solid run of results. The 28-year-old was a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open last month and several of his best career performances have come under similar conditions to those he encounters this week, including a top-10 finish in Los Cabos, Mexico, in the autumn.
Mexico Open longshot pick: Antoine Rozner (+8000)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and Bet365 at time of publishing.
Antoine Rozner gets a rare PGA Tour start and could build on a 4th-placed finish in Qatar last time out. The Frenchman has relished competing at Doha Golf Club, a venue where last year’s Mexico runner-up Sami Valimaki was crowned champion in 2023.
Mexico Open longshot pick: Aldrich Potgieter (+7500)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
South African Aldrich Potgieter is one of the longest drivers in the game. He won a Korn Ferry Tour title in the Bahamas last year and will have learned a lot from near-misses at the Nedbank Challenge and the Farmers.
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