Diane Knox Balas
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It’s been two weeks since Viktor Hovland won the Tour Championship and took home the FedExCup (and $18 million!), and a nice two week break from PGA Tour action that honestly feels a lot longer. We ended our playoff run on a high, with a +550 Hovland win alongside a +1200 payday due to Xander Schauffele finishing as top American. Let’s keep the momentum going for the rest of the season!
That’s right, unlike previous years on the PGA Tour, the 2023 season continues until the end of the calendar year. Usually, the new season is beginning right about now in Napa with the Fortinet Championship, but things look a little different this year.
The top-50 from the points list made it into the FedExCup Playoffs and have locked up their positions for next year and their place in the field for all the Signature Events. Now, the players ranked 51st and upwards keep their points from the regular season and take them into this new FedExCup Fall. Their goal is to not only finish 2023 in the top-125 to lock up their full PGA Tour card, but attempt to earn one of 10 spots in the first two Signature Events of 2024, following the Sentry Tournament of Champions (only the winners of these Fall events will get into that field).
Confusing? A little, but it will all become clear as these next seven tournaments progress. Basically, top-125 is the goal, however finishing within ‘The Next 10’ on the points list at the end of this Fall swing is the ultimate goal and will take care of it all. We have one week of action, another week off and then it’s the Ryder Cup. Get your Cabernet at the ready because this week’s Fortinet Championship is in the Napa Valley at Silverado Resort & Spa.
The guys that didn’t make it into the top-70 for the playoffs, including Justin Thomas, have had five weeks off to relax, recuperate and recharge for this big push to the finish line. Well, JT received that illusive captain’s pick for the U.S. Ryder Cup team and just spent a few days in Italy. Thomas missed out on a spot in the playoffs by one position in the standings, and returns to this tournament for the first time since 2020.
We’re not really going to see all that many players from the top-50 teeing it up over the next seven events, but there will be some exceptions, and Max Homa is one of them. The “Cali King” has won this event the last two years and flew back from that Team USA Ryder Cup field trip to defend his title.
This week, we’ll also see the likes of Sahith Theegala (31), Andrew Putnam (35) and Eric Cole (43) who will be looking to capitalize on these weaker fields and end their season with some silverware at Silverado.
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Silverado Resort & Spa – North Course: What you need to know
The North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa is a par 72 and measures 7,123 yards.
Californians typically play well on Cali turf, and this tournament has really shown it over the years in past champions such as Homa, who’s going for the three-peat, Cameron Champ (’19) and Brendan Steele, who won here in 2017 & 2018. Undulating fairways and Poa Annua greens that get trickier as the day goes on await the field this week, but this is a shorter course that will require a lot of great wedge shots into the greens.
Max Homa has relied on excellent ball-striking to capture the wins, and big hitters have had a lot of success here, using on their skills off-the tee-rather than on the greens. Cam Champ definitely utilized his length and smashed driver all over Silverado to get his win here, as the rough really isn’t terribly penal.
Having said that, tree-lined fairways put a slight premium on accuracy, aiding the shorter hitters, and the fairways play as some of the narrowest on tour.
Knox’s Knockout Fortinet Championship picks
Max Homa (+750 at BetMGM)
A seemingly obvious pick to add to my card, but it’s tricky to leave Homa off. Tricky or just plain stupid. He’s won here the past two years, his track record on Californian courses is phenomenal and he’s the highest ranked player in the FedExCup standings teeing it up. Homa is flying back from a Ryder Cup expedition in Italy and a little fatigue and jet leg could be a factor, but with four top-10s in his last four starts, he’s clearly in brilliant form with a Team USA appearance right around the corner. I did have Homa picked as the winner last year at +1600, who took the title after Danny Willett three-putted from 4 feet on the final hole to lose by one, and the odds are drastically slashed, but at +750 I’ll still include him on my card.
Stephan Jaegar (+3100 at FanDuel)
When you look at guys who were really trending in the run-up to the playoffs, Jaegar is part of the conversation. He made it into the first round and currently sits at #56 in the standings, so with full playing privileges locked up for next season, the German will be looking to play his way into the big-money elevated events. He doesn’t have much positive course history here, however he’s carved himself into a different player over the past year with six top-20 finishes since May. He’s gained just shy of 3 strokes off-the-tee in his last four starts, and when the putter is co-operating, he’s recording some excellent results – which has been the case with positive strokes gained in four of his last five starts. Good odds for a guy in form with a lot of low-hanging fruit within reach.
Brendon Todd (+4000 at PointsBet)
Todd is sitting pretty at #47 in the FedExCup standings and is all hooked up for the 2024 season plus the elevated events, but a win is the only thing that’s missing from his 2023 resume. With some good form of late, plus solid course history at Silverado, Todd must be feeling confident this week. Brendon finished T9 here last year, with a T22 the year prior. Wedge play is important factor around here, and Todd is 3rd around-the-green this season, and his putting stats are fantastic. I liked these odds of 40/1 for an experienced player who will feel confident going up against this field.
Erik Van Rooyen (+12500 at BetMGM)
When it comes to longshot picks this week, I struggled. Most of the +8000 and over guys have had five weeks off, and it’s tough to gauge where they’re at physically and mentally without a few rounds under their belts. Therefore, I’m taking a guy who flew to Europe to compete on the DP World Tour and made the flight worthwhile. EVR finished T8 at the European Masters and then T16 at the Irish Open, plus he finished T6 at the Barracuda Championship on the PGA Tour in July. This is only his second time playing in Napa, and he missed the cut in ’21, however at 131st in the standings he has to start recording some strong finishes to lock up his full Tour card for next season.
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Fortinet Championship Prop Best Bets
Justin Thomas first round leader (+3300 at BetRivers)
You know, I think JT is going to come out of the gate hot this week. There’s been lot of chatter around whether or not he deserved one of Zach Johnson’s Ryder Cup picks, and I think Thomas will be fired up to show everyone he deserves that place. I’ll take him to lead after the first round at 33/1.
Sahith Theegala top-5 finish (+425 at Bet365)
My heart wants to take Theegala for the outright win, but my head feels happy compromising with a top-5. This Californian has played well at Silverado before, finishing T6 last year, and is coming off two top-15s in the first two playoff events. Sahith’s off-the-tee stats have been a sporadic part of his game, but he’s gained strokes in his last five starts. I like him to have a good week.
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