Golf picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship predictions & best bets from Diane Knox Balas

Diane Knox Balas

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Diane Knox Balas loves golf (she’s Scottish, so of course she does) but let’s just say she’s much better at analyzing golf than playing! The same cannot be said for her brother, Russell Knox, who’s a 2-time winner on the PGA Tour and fueled Diane’s initial passion for the sport. A seasoned TV and radio host, Diane has given out 8 outright winners since joining the Pickswise team in April 2022. Her general rule is she has to have three stand-out reasons for each pick and spends her time studying stats, playing form and little nuggets of information from golfers’ lives on Tour. Diane lives in Jacksonville, Florida with her husband Garrett, son Greyson and two English Bulldogs Bowser & Barkley. You can follow her antics on Twitter @KnoxyDiane and Instagram @dianeknoxbalas. For Diane Knox Balas media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

@KnoxyDiane

TPC Southwind: What you need to know

TPC Southwind is a par 70 measuring 7,243 yards. This is the second time the course has hosted a FedExCup Playoff event, but the course is well-known to the field because it was the home of a WGC for many years and has hosted events every year since 1989.

Will Zalatoris beat Sepp Straka in a playoff to win here in 2022. However, the only past champion from a tournament at this course who is playing this week is Harris English.

Iron play is a premium at TPC Southwind, and distance isn’t necessarily a prerequisite for success. Players who can position themselves well off the tee tend to score best in addition to guys who are elite with their mid-irons. Expect undulating fairways and interesting doglegs, and greens that aren’t overly tricky.

There are a lot of water hazards in the form of streams and lakes, and they will cause problems this week on 10 of the 18 holes. Since 2003, TPC Southwind’s 6,166 balls in the water are the highest at any PGA Tour course — beating TPC Sawgrass by more than 1,000. In fact, the 11th hole is similar to the iconic 17th at TPC Sawgrass but plays slightly longer. Si Woo Kim would like to forget the 13 he recorded on this hole a few years ago!

The 18th is a dramatic finishing hole with a severe dogleg left that cost Cam Smith the title in ’21 after he blasted his tee shot right and hit his second shot out of bounds.

This week, I’m looking at great all-round players with excellent iron/approach skills and players who are in stellar overall form entering their playoff journey.

Knox’s Knockout FedEx St. Jude Championship picks

Sam Burns (+4000 at BetMGM)

Here is someone who enters the week slightly under the radar yet has a lot to play for. Burns has played this course twice in the last two years and has finished T2 and T20, respectively, gaining almost 3 strokes in approach and 2 strokes around the green. Since his win at the Match Play Championship back in March, Burns has 6 top-20 finishes — including a T14 last week at the Wyndham, where he ranked 11th in approach. At 19th in the FedExCup standings, Burns is in a strong position yet will most definitely have the Ryder Cup on his mind. Looking to make his Team USA debut, Burns currently sits 13th on the points list and is really going to have to jump into the top 12 to have a strong chance given the caliber of names ahead of him.

Brian Harman (+4500 at BetMGM)

The recent Champion Golfer of the Year has seen his status elevated since his dominant win at Royal Liverpool, and he returns to a course at which he has enjoyed plenty of success. Harman hasn’t played since the Open last month and sits at #6 in the FedExCup standings. He is playing the best golf of his already impressive career and hasn’t finished outside of the top 12 in any of his last 4 starts. Last year he finished T3 here and had a T6 back in 2014. As we all saw at the British Open, Harman is an elite iron player and hasn’t dropped any strokes on the greens since the PGA Championship in May. This Georgia Bulldog has fight, and he has the big prize in his sights. These are fantastic odds for him.

J.T. Poston (+5500 at FanDuel)

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it’s hard not to pick Poston again this week. As I said last week, he is on a heater right now and has been one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour over the last month. Poston has 4 top-10s in his last 5 starts and leads the tour in approach shots from 100 yards. He has 2 top-20 finishes at this course under his belt and at 45th in the FedExCup rankings is in an excellent position to make it all the way to East Lake. Poston also moved up 12 spots in the Ryder Cup rankings this week; you can’t tell me a place on that team in Italy isn’t a motivating factor. Who knows what 2 good weeks could do for him?

Emiliano Grillo (+10000 at FanDuel)

This 100/1 price is excellent for Grillo supporters, so I’m taking it. The Argentine has only played this course once before and finished T31 here last year, however his run of form currently is impressive. Since his win at Colonial at the end of May, Grillo has 3 top-15 finishes on the tour and 2 of those have been top 10s in his last 2 starts. He is very consistent off the tee and has excellent par-3 stats for the season (seventh in par-3 scoring average and second in par-3 birdies), which confirm the brilliance of his iron game. At 21st in the FedExCup standings, Grillo’s sights will be firmly set on making the Tour Championship for the first time since 2016. At this price, he is a great pick.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship prop bets

Lucas Glover top 10 (+550 at DraftKings)

Last year Scott battled his way into the playoffs and made it all the way to the Tour Championship. This year Glover was the only one who sat outside the top 70 heading into the Wyndham Championship and — with the win — now sits inside the top 50. He has been playing great, with 4 top-6 performances in his last 5 starts, and is playing this course for the seventh time in completion. In 2022 Glover finished T3 here. He has worked hard with the putter and is finally reaping the fruits of his labor.

Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young top-5 parlay (+2200 at DraftKings)

I’m taking this parlay, as I like Cameron Young to play well at +770 for a top-5 result. But I love combining it with a strong performance from McIlroy. Young seems to have turned a corner with his game, finishing T6 at the John Deere and then T8 at the British Open, plus he is sitting at eighth on the Ryder Cup points list. I think the pressure is on Young to prove himself for a pick over some of the more experienced players that sit behind him like Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau and even Thomas. He has 2 big weeks ahead. Plus McIlroy hasn’t finished outside of the top 9 since the start of May and he has 2 career top-7s at this course. I’ll happily lump these two together for 22/1.

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