Diane Knox Balas
Show Bio
Jon Rahm continues to be the name on everyone’s lips, and that’s not about to change this week. The PGA Tour leaves Palm Springs after Rahm’s second victory in three weeks, and heads to his favorite place on earth – Torrey Pines.
Torrey Pines was the scene of his first win in 2017 (he was +5500!), his U.S. Open victory in 2021, and it’s where he got down on one knee and proposed to his now-wife, Kelly. Not only that, but Rahm’s Torrey Pines record is exceptional, and he’s finished no lower than 7th in the Farmers Insurance Open since 2019, with a runner-up place in 2020 and 3rd last year. In short, once again, Rahm is the man to beat.
Last year, Luke List defeated Will Zalatoris in a playoff to take the trophy. Looking at how he did it, he was 4th in putting, 5th tee to green and 8th in approach. List was also 17th in driving distance, which is notable on the lengthy South Course. We don’t usually see too many surprises around here, but bettors who took List at 80/1 had a nice payday!
Don’t get caught out this week – the tournament begins on Wednesday and ends on Saturday, so they don’t have to fight for ratings against the NFL Playoffs on Sunday.
Torrey Pines GC: What you need to know
Once again, we’ll see more than one course this week. Wednesday and Thursday, the field will tee it up on the North and South Courses, then it’s all action on the South Course on Friday and Saturday.
The North Course is the shorter of the two at 7,258 yards, and the South Course is a huge 7,765 yards. The South Course is notoriously tricky and long, and guys really need to take advantage of the easier North Course and post a good number. It typically plays 2-3 shots easier than the South.
Driving distance is a big advantage, and the big hitters will get away with missing fairways and scrambling out of any trouble. You have to putt really well around the courses too.
I’ll be looking at those stats, as well as course experience for my picks this week.
Knox’s Farmers Insurance Open Picks
Taylor Montgomery (+2800)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook
I’m not giving up on Taylor Montgomery, because if I don’t pick him and he wins I’ll quit this business! Taylor was in the mix last week and finished solo 5th for his fourth top-10 of the season. Being a big hitter will be an advantage for Taylor this week, and he’s 3rd in putting average on the Tour. I’ve said enough about him over the past few weeks to justify this pick, so I’m sticking with it.
Justin Rose (+6600)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook
When you look at the Tour veterans who love playing Torrey Pines, it’s hard to look past Justin Rose. The Englishman won here in 2019 and has three additional top-8 finishes in his last five appearances. Rose played last week in Palm Springs to warm up for one of his favorite events and played well, apart from one high round on Saturday. I like these odds in a very familiar place.
Gary Woodland (+9000)
Available at Bet365 Sportsbook
Another one who plays well here, Gary Woodland, ranks within the top-10 of total strokes gained at Torrey Pines. He’s finished within the top-20 five times and has only ever missed one cut out of thirteen appearances in this tournament. With one top-10 this season, there’s not much current form to go on, however, Woodland is a huge hitter who knows this course and scrambles well. I also like him for a top-10 at +750.
Ryan Palmer (+12500)
Available at PointsBet Sportsbook
When looking at course history and past performances, Ryan Palmer is a great pick at high odds. Since 2018, Palmer has never missed a cut here, his worst finish has been T21, and he’s been runner-up twice. With driving distance being far more important than accuracy this week, the winning model plays into Palmer’s current form, plus he’s a great putter and sits at 33rd in putting average for the season so far.
Need a new sportsbook? Why not try Bet365, where you can bet $1 and get $200 in bonus bets immediately! Click here to sign up now.
Farmers Insurance Open Prop Bets
Callum Tarren top-10 (+1600)
Available at Bet365 Sportsbook
When looking at big hitters who can putt, Callum Tarren makes my list. The Englishman is 30th in driving distance this season and 35th in strokes gained: putting. Also, in his last tournament, which was in November last year, he finished second. If that form continues after his work in the off-season, he could be a name to watch.
J.B. Holmes top-20 (+1100)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook
Great to see this name back on the field list! Holmes hasn’t played on the Tour since September 2021 and is coming back to a place he’s had decent success before, finishing within the top-6 three times.
The Pickswise golf handicappers are on hand with expert Golf Picks and Golf Predictions as well as tournament previews and analysis throughout the PGA Tour, including all of the majors.
