Diane Knox Balas
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With no PGA Tour and no LIV Golf action this week, all eyes are on the DP World Tour for the BMW PGA Championship in Wentworth, Surrey.
This is a big week in more ways than one. Firstly, this is the DP World Tour’s flagship event and the field is elite. Recent FedExCup champion Rory McIlroy headlines a tee sheet that includes Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland and Shane Lowry. Secondly, we are going to see the “LIV defectors” join them. Referees at the ready! But seriously, there’s bound to be some animosity in the locker room as the likes of Patrick Reed, Talor Gooch, Lee Westwood and Ian Poulter make the journey from Boston to England to compete.
But why are they allowed to be there? Even though the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour have an “operational joint venture partnership,” LIV golfers haven’t been banned from the European Tour. An injunction temporarily prevents the DP World Tour from suspending them, so alas they are competing.
Last week, LIV golfer and Ryder Cup Europe superstar Martin Kaymer said he had chosen to withdraw from the tournament due to “potential player friction.” Additionally, Rory McIlroy said, “It’s going to be hard for me to stomach going to Wentworth in a couple of weeks’ time and seeing them there;” U.S. Open champion Fitzpatrick predicted that it’s going to be “awkward.”
CEO of the DP World tour Keith Pelley circulated a memo to all players stating that LIV golfers won’t be required to play in the pro-am, shouldn’t wear any LIV-branded items and won’t be included in the featured group TV coverage. Yikes. Things could get really interesting if it’s a head-to-head battle on Sunday with one of the LIV guys — or even a few of them in contention!
Some people have made it very clear that the LIV golfers are really not wanted at Wentworth, but that hasn’t deterred the 17 of them who are choosing to tee it up to possibly gain very valuable world ranking points. Wow, be prepared for fireworks a’plenty!
Wentworth Golf Club: What you need to know
This event was traditionally held in May, when the English weather seemed to be a lot warmer and drier, but in 2019 was moved to its new date in September. With that has come more rain, which has made the course softer and more scorable. Last year, American Billy Horschel won at -19 in only his second appearance in the tournament. In ’20, Tyrell Hatton was the champion, also at -19, and in 2019 the trophy went to Englishman Danny Willett with a score of 20 under par. With more rain in the forecast this year, I’d expect to see low scores once again.
At 7,267 yards, this par 72 really tests all aspects of the game. It’s a course that requires strategy over sheer power off the tee, and the narrow tree-lined fairways mean that accuracy is really rewarded. A lot of bunkering makes the fairways seem even tighter, and the players will face many dogleg holes.
Having said that, and by looking at the previous three years there are many scoring opportunities around Wentworth — especially with soft, receptive greens. The par 3s are on the short side, and all four of the par 5s are reachable in two shots. The 17th and 18th holes are long and tricky, always allowing for some late-in-the-day drama.
Horschel’s winning stats from last year really paint the overall picture; he was 1st in approach, 1st in greens in reg and 2nd off the tee, plus he was 3rd in scrambling. I’m looking at overall solid ball-strikers, concentrating on great iron play (greens in reg and approach), who can really take advantage of the soft conditions.
Knox’s Knockout BMW PGA Championship picks
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1200 at BetMGM)
After the summer he has enjoyed, I’m sure Fitzpatrick is going to be delighted to be back in his home country. The U.S. Open champion had ten top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour last season, including a recent T5 at the FedEx St Jude Championship. His ball striking this past season was the best it’s ever been, and he finished inside the top-10 off-the-tee and 2nd in total strokes gained. Plus, with approach being key around Wentworth, it’s been a real strength of Fitzpatrick’s game. While he sits near the top of the board, 12/1 look like great odds for the Englishman this week.
Viktor Hovland (+2500 at BetMGM)
As soon as I saw Hovland at 25/1, I quickly took him. I’m sure he’ll be happy to be back on British soil after finishing T4 at the British Open back in July, and he has been playing well ever since. He has gained almost 4 strokes in approach in his last five events, as well as steady gains in his overall ball-striking. I really like Hovland to take advantage of the receptive greens this week.
Thomas Pieters (+5000 at Bet365)
Pieters will be one of the DP World Tour favorites this week, and these odds are excellent. He has posted four top-10 finishes in his last eight events, including a T8 a few weeks ago at the Czech Masters. He has gained strokes off the tee in six of his last eight starts, and his iron play has been looking really sharp. The Belgian finished in the top 10 here last year and the work he has been putting into his game has really paid off over the last few months. He says he is “hungry to compete” and should perform well at Wentworth.
Ewen Ferguson (+10000 at BetMGM)
I have a Scottish long shot for you this week in the form of Ewen Ferguson. What a breakout year it has been for him. Ferguson secured his debut win on the DP World Tour back in March and followed it up with his second victory last month at the ISPS Handa World Invitational. Not only that, but he also finished one shot short in Denmark last week. Speaking of last week, Ferguson gained 2.5 shots total on the field, with his approach shot being his strength. His accuracy off the tee fell last week, but that’s usually that a stat that is very strong for the Scot. He is in the form of his (short) career, and I’m definitely picking Ewen as my longshot bet this week for Wentworth.
BMW PGA Championship Prop Bets
Tommy Fleetwood top-10 finish (+350 at Bet365)
Fleetwood has had a resurgent year and was playing some excellent golf before taking some time away form the game to be with his family following his mother’s passing. He skipped the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so it’s excellent to see him back in the field this week and I’m sure the Englishman will have a huge amount of support behind him. Last time we saw him he finished T4 in both the Scottish Open and then the British Open and carded an additional top 4 at the PGA Championship back in May. Fleetwood played fantastic golf at the British Open and I would love to see him continue that run of form this week as he makes his return to professional golf.
Adam Scott top-10 finish (+350 at Bet365)
I was so happy to see Scott in the field at Wentworth. This man is in amazing form and if you follow my picks regularly, you will know how much money I have made off Scott and his top-10 finishes over the past few months! He made it all the way to the final round of the FedExCup playoffs following top-5 finishes in the first two playoff events. This course should suit his game and he has to be feeling confident.
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