Diane Knox Balas
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Lucas Glover strikes again! What a run of form for the 2009 U.S. Open champion, who followed up his win at the Wyndham Championship with a victory in the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs last week. Glover defeated Patrick Cantlay on the first playoff hole to take the title and jump all the way up to 4th in the FedExCup standings. Incredible!
Prior to the Wyndham, Glover sat at 112th in the season-long standings, knowing the top-70 would enter the playoff race the following week. That win boosted him to 49th and now he is a real contender for the FedExCup, which will be handed out next week at the Tour Championship.
I had Glover for a top-10 at +550, so I made a nice bit of money on that prop bet.
Not only that, but the 43-year-old has also entered the race at the 11th hour for a Ryder Cup pick; this week is the last week in which guys can earn points in the Ryder Cup standings.
The second of the playoff events sees the top 50 tee it up at Olympia Fields in Chicago for the BMW Championship. Cantlay enters the week as the 2-time defending champion of the BMW, while Jon Rahm won the title the last time it was contested at this course.
Rory McIlroy opens as the favorite at +750 following his third-place finish last week, with Scottie Scheffler right behind him at +800. Rahm is +1000 and still sits atop of the FedEx Cup standings.
The top 30 in the standings at the end of Sunday will make it to the Tour Championship next week at East Lake in Atlanta.
With these playoff events, the FedExCup points are QUADRUPLED — which equals a lot of volatility and movement. So instead of the usual 500 points awarded to the winner, he will receive 2,000 and make a huge leap up the standings. The incentive to make it all the way to the Tour Championship is huge, with minimum earnings coming in at $500,000.
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Olympia Fields: What you need to know
Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course) is a par 70 measuring 7,366 yards. This venue has hosted four men’s major championships and returns as the BMW Championship course for the second time, the first one being in 2020. It’s worth noting that in 2020 only 5 players broke par for the week, and the winning score was -4, with Rahm and Dustin Johnson then battling it out in a playoff. In short, the course is hard. Marc Leishman ended the week at +30!
There is water on 8 holes and 91 bunkers in total on the course. Players will encounter a real demand for accuracy and disciplined course management and they will have to capitalize on their chances to score as they may be few and far between. It’s hard to play catch up.
The opening hole is a par 5 and plays as the easiest hole on the course, offering a gentle handshake before unleashing the blows! Plus, prepare for final stretch drama as the 18th plays as the most difficult — with a scoring average almost half a stroke over par. The fairways are tight and tree-lined, with doglegs and elevation changes that will require precision — especially to avoid those perilous bunkers. In 2020 these greens were ranked as the second toughest on tour.
A great overall tee-to-green game is going to be needed this week, with all elements of the game tested.
Knox’s Knockout BMW Championship picks
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200 at BetMGM)
If you regularly follow my picks, you’ll know how much hope I invest in Fleetwood. I’ve been waiting for his first PGA Tour victory for some time now, and I’m not sure how much more I can take! Fleetwood’s Sunday putting woes last week at the FedEx St Jude came as no surprise to me, having been in his state of expectation many times over the past few months. He finished in a tie for 3rd, adding to his tally of top-10 finishes this season. In fact, he has placed in the top 10 in 5 of his last 6 starts and boasts a T8 and a T11 at his 2 previous BMW Championships (albeit at different courses). He is now sitting 10th in the FedExCup standings — up from 26th — and another big week would do wonders for his chances of lifting the FedEx Cup next week. I’m all in on the Englishman.
Max Homa (+2500 at DraftKings)
When you look at players who are trending in the right direction at such a pivotal point in the season, Homa can’t be overlooked. Having finished 21st, 12th. 10th and 6th in his last 4 starts, Homa gained strokes in all areas of his game last week in Memphis to maintain a top-10 FedEx Cup ranking. He is 8th in strokes gained: total for the season and 9th in putting, and after winning the first event of the 2023 season it would be a brilliant full-circle moment to see him go all the way and take the grand prize next week. Speaking of wins, Homa has been victorious at Torrey Pines and Riviera — showing he is perfectly capable of navigating tough golf courses and posting scores. With excellent off-the-tee stats, gaining almost 5 strokes in his last 6 events, I really like Homa this week at Olympia Fields.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3500 at FanDuel)
Matsuyama had a fantastic round on Sunday to race up the leaderboard in Memphis and earn his place in the top 50, jumping from 57th to 47th. He now returns to a course he has played well at before, finishing T3 the last time Olympia Fields held the BMW Championship. Matsuyama has had such a volatile season on the greens, but his off-the-tee numbers and approach stats have remained strong and will be an important area of the game needed to play well and score this week. Tee to green last week he was 2nd, and 3rd in total putts. He made the jump into the field last week, so let’s hope he can do the same in Chicago.
J.T. Poston (+8000 at FanDuel)
Getting into the Tour Championship field is huge. Everyone who finishes in the top 30 is guaranteed $500,00, plus they earn their place in 3 of the 4 majors. When looking at guys who are outside of the top 30 with high odds, one name really stands out. Sitting at 43rd, J.T. Poston will have to make some big moves around Olympia Fields. He has played a lot lately, and his game has been very solid with 4 top 7s in his last 6 starts and a T25 last week in Memphis. Having actually lost strokes off the tee in his last 5 starts, the other facets of Poston’s game are dialed in — especially in approach and putting. I picked him last week, but he knows what’s on the line this week. He has to keep pushing and I like these odds a lot.
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BMW Championship prop bets
Patrick Cantlay top 5 (+210 at DraftKings)
Cantlay must have racked up a pretty sweet BMW collection by this point to accompany his 2 back-to-back trophies. He is going for the BMW Championship 3-peat, coming off the playoff loss to Glover last week in Memphis. Having also won the FedEx Cup 2 years ago, Cantlay seems to thrive at this stage of the season. These are small odds, but actually slightly bigger than I expected — so I’ll take him for a top 5.
Matt Fitzpatrick top 10 (+350 at DraftKings)
Fitzpatrick needs a big week. Currently sitting at 40th in the FedEx Cup standings, he dropped 4 spots last week when he finished dead last. However, Fitzy likes big, tough courses — just think back to his U.S. Open win at Brookline. Plus he finished T6 here at the 2020 BMW. With the Tour Championship on the line, this is all or nothing for the Englishman.
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