Diane Knox Balas
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Max Homa proved, once again, that he plays his best golf in his home state of California after winning the Farmers at Torrey Pines for his fourth victory on the West Coast. He also showed that the plays his best golf on tough, major golf courses. Watch this space as we have the U.S. Open in Los Angeles in June…!
The PGA Tour stays in Cali but moves North for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The strength of field dips a bit this week, but we still get to see ’17 champion Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick and last year’s winner Tom Hoge in action. The Saudi International is also taking place this week on the DP World Tour and a few notable names are heading overseas to compete, such as Cameron Young, no doubt fueling LIV Golf rumors.
Like The AMEX a few weeks ago, we have a pro-am element to the tournament over the first three days, with a three course rotation – Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill and Monetary Peninsula CC. For the final round, everyone will play Pebble Beach GL.
It was a showdown between Tom Hoge and Jordan Spieth last year for the trophy, but a late slip from Spieth helped Hoge claim his first victory by two strokes. We’ve seen a huge variety of winners here over the years, from favorites to long shots. In 2018, Ted Potter Jr. won at odds of 500/1…! Last year, Hoge was 66/1.
It’s worth noting that Northern California has been battered by rain and flooding this month so the courses will be playing soft. The Dunes Course at Monterey Peninsula CC was destroyed just a few short weeks ago by the elements, so the fact we’re getting golf up there this week is nothing short of a miracle.
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Pebble Beach Pro Am Courses: What you need to know
After seeing the length of Torrey Pines, we’re on three short, precise courses this week. Pebble Beach Golf Links is one of the most iconic courses in America, and it’s almost a shame that the field will only play two rounds there over the course of the tournament.
Pebble is known for having the smallest greens on the Tour, so fantastic iron play, accuracy and greens in regulation will be key. Having said that, due to the tiny surface area, around-the-green and scrambling stats are also important to look at.
Monterey Peninsula plays as the easiest of the three courses, and Spyglass offers the toughest test.
Knox’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks
Tom Hoge (+2000)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
Last year’s winner put on a brilliant performance to get his debut victory, and he seems to only be getting better. He’s started the season strong, with five top-15 finishes including a T3 at the 2023 opener in Hawaii. He moves to another three coastal courses this week after gaining strokes in approach and around the green in his last outing at The AMEX. In fact, he leads the Tour in approach this season. One of the favorites this week, but at 20/1 I’ll be taking him.
Andrew Putnam (+2800)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
When you look at Strokes Gained: Total around Monterey Peninsula, Putnam sits within the top-10 and last year finished T6 in this tournament, gaining strokes on the greens in particular. He’s having a great season with two top-10s, including a runner-up at the ZOZO and a T4 at the Sony Open in Hawaii earlier this month. Also, Andrew hasn’t missed a cut since last July. Talk about consistent form! Sitting just outside the top-10 in putting on the Tour this season, I’d hope to see him excel on the greens this week.
Joel Dahmen (+4000)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Let’s cut to the chase – my real reason for picking Joel Dahmen this week is because he just became a father less than two weeks ago. Like his pal Max Homa, Dahmen will be playing with a revitalized sense of joy and perspective. Not only that, but his history on these courses is pretty good, especially on Spyglass Hill. Last year he finished T6, and in 2020 he was T14. The stat that let Joel down last year was putting, but he’s been gaining strokes on the greens and sits within the top-40 on Tour in putting average (considering he hasn’t played this calendar year). His iron game is elite, he sits 28th in approach and 33rd around-the-green and Dahmen has been striking the ball brilliantly to record three top-10s already this season.
Ben Griffin (+7000)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I was hoping to see Griffin at higher odds this week, but I’m going with him at 70/1. Ben hasn’t missed a cut since the first event of the season back in September, and is known to play well on shorter courses, such as the Bermuda Championship where he finished T3 in October last year, and T12 at the Sony Open a few weeks ago. It’s his first time playing this event, but the precise layout and shorter approach shots should suit his game.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Prop Bets
David Lipsky top-10 (+500)
Available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
Lipsky has been appearing in the upper part of leaderboards more and more lately, highlighted by a T4 at the Sony Open. He’s an accurate, precise player who excels from 125 yards in, which will come in handy this week.
Lanto Griffin top-10 (+700)
Available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
Lanto was forced to take a long break from play after undergoing surgery on a disc in his back last summer. He made his return at the Farmers Insurance Open and played well, finishing T37 after a final round 77 but his opening 67 showed he’s fit and ready to go! He’s finished T9 and T16 here before, and I’d love to see a real return to form this week.
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