Diane Knox Balas
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A nice victory at +6500 for Wyndham Clark last week at the Wells Fargo Championship shows that it pays to look further afield than the superstar names at these PGA Tour designated events.
I had tipped him for victory the week prior, so I missed his debut win by one week, which I am slightly kicking myself about. I also missed out on my Gary Woodland top-10 finish at +750 by one shot. However, we move on!
This week, it’s the AT&T Byron Nelson in McKinney, Texas. K.H. Lee successfully defended his title last year at TPC Craig Ranch, and is coming off a T8 finish at Quail Hollow last week. Interesting to note he was 200/1 to win in 2021 and 100/1 last year. We’re not going to get anywhere near those odds this year, however!
The field is highlighted by Dallas native Scottie Scheffler, who’s back in action after skipping the Wells Fargo, hometown hero Jordan Spieth, who finished runner-up last year, and Tyrrell Hatton, who finished tied for third last week and is making his tournament debut.
This is also the last event before the second Major of the year – the PGA Championship, which will be held at Oak Hill in Rochester next week. Therefore, this is the final chance for someone to stamp their ticket.
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TPC Craig Ranch: What you need to know
The course this week for the iconic Byron Nelson tournament is TPC Craig Ranch. This is the third time the course has hosted the tournament, with K.H. Lee winning both years prior. Also, expect to see a birdie-fest! Last year’s winning score was -26, and in 2021 Lee got to -25.
TPC Craig Ranch also hosted the 2008 Nationwide Tour Championship (winning score -17), and the 2012 Web.com Tour Championship (winning score -16), therefore is familiar to a chunk of the field who have been out here for a while.
In 2021, this 7,468 yard course played as the 3rd-easiest on record since 2015. In 2022, the cut was -5 and last place shot 4-under for the week. Fair to say this week will be a real Texas shoot-out!
The fairways here are really wide with very little rough make it extremely forgiving off the tee, and the greens rank as the 8th easiest to hit on the PGA Tour. We have four Par-5s here, and the majority of the field should get to the green in two. I told you, birdie-fest! The only course defense could be the weather, and we’ve seen torrential rain and wind here in the last two years, with scattered thunderstorms and winds of 12mph forecast this week.
Knowing the guys are going to have to go low to be in contention, I’m really looking at current form, solid tee-to-green and great putting stats. This is a real second-shot golf course, so excellent approach play will be huge in getting leg up on the competition. Last year, 40% of approach shots came from 200 yards and over, so performance from that distance will be worth looking at closely.
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Knox’s Knockout AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
Tom Kim (+2400 at FanDuel)
After the hot start to his PGA Tour career – two wins in 2022 – Tom Kim’s 2023 has been relatively slower than a lot of people imagined it would be. His last solo top-10 came back in January, however this week the 20-year-old is playing in his hometown and will surely be a real favorite with the fans. We saw how much he loves to play for the crowds at the Presidents Cup last year, where he was a stand-out member of the International Team. Tom is such an accurate ball-striker and leads the Tour in approaches from the 150 yard range. We know birdies in abundance are vital this week, and if Tom’s putter heats up (he’s lost strokes on the greens in two of his last three events) he’ll be a real hot-shot out there.
K.H. Lee (+2500 at FanDuel)
It’s going to be hard to rule out Lee this week on getting the “three-peat”. Back-to-back wins at this course has to make him the most confident man on the range, strengthened by the fact he finished within the top-10 last week in Charlotte, alongside a T23 at the Masters last month. His approach stat has been key to his wins and it’s still strong, sitting at 30th in greens in reg on the Tour, and 6th in approaches from 250-275 yards.
Ryan Palmer (+15000 at FanDuel)
I’m looking at this Texan, who holds the course record at TPC Craig Ranch. Last year, Ryan Palmer finished T5 in this event (I had tipped him at 14/1 for a top-5 finish), and at 186th in the FedExCup standings he needs to pick up the pace of his season. Last week at the Wells Fargo, his play showed signs of improvement, especially in his approach and putting, and he’s now taking his game to a place he feels very comfortable in and familiar with. I’m also taking Palmer at +900 for a top-10.
Nate Lashley (+15000 at FanDuel)
Lashley is putting together a nice season – three top 20s, and sitting at No.92 in the FedExCup, therefore the top-70 goal to reach the playoffs is well within grasp. He finished T27 last week after falling away on Sunday with a 75, but he gained just shy of two strokes on the field in approach. That’s really positive heading to TPC Craig Ranch, where off-the-tee is very forgiving and should help his overall game. Lashley also finished T17 here last year.
AT&T Byron Nelson Prop Bets
Pierceson Coody top-10 finish (+1200 at DraftKings)
Pierceson and his twin brother Parker are in the field this week on sponsor’s exemptions, and these Texas boys are starting to make names for themselves on the PGA Tour. Pierceson has made three cuts on the PGA Tour this season, and finished T14 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. Playing on the Korn Ferry Tour, he’s racked up three top-15s and a win in 2023. The twins are going to have a lot of support out there this week.
Matt Kuchar top-5 finish (+650 at DraftKings)
We only have two years of course history to go on here, but one man who’s finished in good positions both times in Kuch – T12 last year and T17 in 2021. Last time the Tour was in Texas for the Valero, Matt finished 3rd. He’s also coming off a T23 last week where gained over one and a half strokes on the field in putting. He’s a birdie machine, and I like him to be in the mix this week.
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