Joe Champion
A massive fortnight on the PGA Tour starts with the first of 2 Signature Events, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, staged as per usual at the home of the King, Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Florida. One of the key themes of the PGA Tour season has been the success of European golfers and, while Scottie Scheffler assumes his usual spot as favorite for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg are both snapping at his heels. McIlroy, Aberg, Sepp Straka and Thomas Detry have all claimed titles in the US while Scheffler is on a 3-event winless stretch, standard fare for most mortals but not for the man who claimed nine worldwide wins last year. Can he bounce back here? Let’s get into my expert predictions for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, while you can also find out our golf picks for EVERY PGA Tour event this year.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational golf picks and predictions
Arnold Palmer Invitational best bet: Ludvig Aberg (+1600)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Scheffler finished 3rd at the Genesis Invitational last time and should take all the beating at Bay Hill, but he’s looked more susceptible to uncharacteristic errors this year and his odds look too short given the quality in this Signature field. McIlroy won this tournament in 2018 and has posted 5 further top-10 finishes, but his putting was a concern at the Genesis. Instead, it’s Aberg who rates the best option this week in his bid for a quickfire double after winning the Genesis Invitational.
Bay Hill, a difficult course that puts a premium on long-game prowess, is right in the Swede’s wheelhouse and he’s made 2 encouraging previous appearances at a venue that demands experience, finishing 24th and 25th. A supreme ball-striker who claimed his 2nd PGA Tour success in nerveless fashion at Torrey Pines, Aberg has been playing as well as anyone this season when he’s been fit and there’s scope for further improvement.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational prediction: Tommy Fleetwood (+3500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
While Americans have been successful 4 times in a row in the Arnold Palmer, Europeans have a fine record at Bay Hill and Tommy Fleetwood looks overpriced. Fleetwood leads the PGA Tour in strokes-gained approach this season, striking his irons well at both Pebble Beach and the Genesis, when he finished 5th. He has underwhelmed in his last 2 starts in the Arnold Palmer but was 10th in 2017, 3rd in 2019 and 10th again in 2021.
Arnold Palmer Invitational longshot pick: Shane Lowry (+6500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Shane Lowry is another who could outperform his big odds, as he was again brilliant from tee-to-green when 11th in the Cognizant Classic last week but he would’ve preferred that event to turn into its usual grind sooner than it did. That’s what he should get this week at Bay Hill, a course he appeared to have finally figured out when 3rd last year.
Arnold Palmer Invitational longshot pick: Michael Kim (+8000)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of of publishing.
Red-hot Michael Kim also shouldn’t be disregarded on this step back up in class – the Californian has form figures of 2-13-13-6 to his name. His long game is excellent for this return to a venue where he finished 17th on debut in 2017. He missed the cut on his one subsequent Bay Hill start when his form had fallen off a cliff, but now back in flying form, he could be one to watch out for.
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